BlogHide Resteemsbondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years agoU.S. Bond Returns Vary Dramatically So Far In 2020The upheaval in global financial markets this year is unleashing profound effects on U.S. fixed-income assets—negative and positive. Depending on the slice of the bond market, year-to-date results…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years agoLong Term Yields As A Call OptionA long time ago, I played around with the idea that when yields are near zero, forward yields act more like call options on future interest rates than unbiased market expectations of future rates.…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years agoTreasury Bonds Eye Monster ReversalMonthly i Shares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Monthly i Shares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF The financial markets have been panicking and it’s producing some huge swings across asset classes. One…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years agoTIPS: Big Bet On 10-Year Breakevens At 0.94%I have been tweeting constantly, and telling all of our investors, and anyone else who will listen, that TIPS are being priced at levels that are, to use a technical term, kooky. With current median…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years agoREITs And Bonds Rose Last Weeks As Global Stocks FellCoronavirus-related selling took a toll on equity markets last week (and more of the same is in store for today). But in a striking bit of defiance, US real estate investment trusts (REITs) bucked…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years agoWhy Bond Investors Are More Afraid Of The Coronavirus OutbreakOn Friday I tweeted a picture from our daily chart pack, and mused that either credit is too negative or stocks are not negative enough. SP 500 Vs Bloom/Barc Agg OAS Spread SP 500 Vs Bloom/Barc…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years agoWill U.S. Treasury Yields Go Negative?The relatively high and positive yields in U.S. government bonds have been an outlier in global markets, but coronavirus blowback appears on track to wipe away that spread (or at least make a hefty…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years agoFebruary 2020 Yield Curve UpdateWell, this month appears to have presented the triggering event that will tip the Fed's hawkish bias over the tipping point. It seems likely now that the Fed will chase the natural rate down to zero…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years agoU.S. 10-Year T-Bill At 60-Year Low As Equity Markets CorrectI last wrote about U.S. 10-year Treasury yields in a post back in August 2019, which warned of potential upcoming weakness in the equity market. Back then it was trading at 1.556. Since then, it…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years ago10-Year Yields Pushed To New All Time LowsU.S. CDC SAYS NOW IS THE TIME FOR BUSINESSES, HOPSTIALS, COMMUNITIES AND SCHOOLS TO BEGIN PREPARING TO RESPOND TO CORONAVIRUS – TELEBRIEFING U.S. CDC SAYS WANTS TO PREPARE AMERICAN PUBLIC FOR…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years ago10 Year US Notes Trading Higher - Elliott Wave Analysis10-yearear U.S. notes are trading in an uptrend since the last quarter of 2018, and unfolding a big, five-wave cycle. We labelled a turn lower from the 132'14 level as a corrective wave (4) which…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years agoWill Recent Downside Momentum In Treasury Yields Accelerate?The fear trade that’s animating Treasury buying is alive and well. Although you might have missed it by focusing on the soaring US equity market, the rush into safe-haven Treasuries has hardly…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years agoDigging For Value In A Pile Of ManureThere is an old story about a little boy who was such an extreme optimist that his worried parents took him to a psychiatrist. The doctor decided to try to temper the young boy’s optimism by…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years ago10-Year Rates May Climb To As High As 2% As Risk-Taking ReturnsThis post was written exclusively for Investing.com The risk appetite among investors appears to be on the rise and that means yields may be on their way higher. Equity markets are climbing…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years agoTreasury Market Flashes New Warning As Real Yields Go NegativeIt happened before, in 2012-2013, but the US economy muddled through a soft patch. Is it different this time? It’s a question worth pondering as the global economy struggles to model the spreading…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years agoJanuary 2020 Yield Curve UpdateInterest rates have declined back toward the August lows (though they have bounced back up a bit over the past couple of days). Generally, this month has continued the trend that suggests the Fed…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years agoUS Bonds Roar Out Of The Gate In 2020The new year is not quite a month old but that hasn’t stopped US bonds from piling up impressive returns. For the strongest corners of fixed income, it’s fair to say that 2020 has been spectacular…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years agoPowell Keeps Bonds Bid Ahead Of U.S. GDPThe Fed cracked open the door to cutting rates later this year by emphasizing that the central bank is determined to avoid the kind of low inflation that's plaguing several developed countries. The…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years agoYield Curve Inversions Again Stretch Out 7 YearsYield Curve Inversions 01272020 Yield Curve Inversions 01272020 Huge portions of the yield curve are inverted. Most of the inversions are by tiny amounts, but it's another warning. With growing…bondstrader (34)in bonds • 5 years agoBond Break?There are two things I turned bullish on when the year began: gold and bonds. Both of these are based on long-term patterns. Short-term, of course, I watch them quite closely anyway. Bonds, by way…