BlogHide Resteemspasha-kamyshev (35)in youtiki • 2 years agoBest of YouTikiI have started YouTiki - my own social wiki to accumulate reliable knowledge, starting with information about health. Links to the Best Youtiki content (so far): Overall Water filters…pasha-kamyshev (35)in ai • 4 years agoResearch agenda for AI safety and a better civilizationThis agenda is various ideas that occurred to me throughout the years of reading up on AI progress and AI safety. One big idea is that AI is simultaneously software, applied mathematics as well as…pasha-kamyshev (35)in covid19 • 5 years agoRetrospective on 2 Weeks Ago and Predictions for the Next 2 Weeks.I reiterate that people are not making enough predictions about the situation. I made some predictions 2 weeks ago. I had a couple hits and a couple misses. See post two weeks ago here: Hits:…pasha-kamyshev (35)in covid19 • 5 years agoBetter Estimates of Covid19 death ratesWhat is the real death rate of Covid-19? I want to estimate the per-age fatality rate of different countries: China, South Korea and Italy. South Korea has 72 deaths and 8086 cases for an overall…pasha-kamyshev (35)in coronavirus • 5 years agoBasic Coronavirus PredictionsAttempting to predict things is hard, especially about the future. Right now I am doing some very rough estimates of where I expect things to be in two weeks. (on 3/22/2020) South Korea: The…pasha-kamyshev (35)in rationality • 6 years agoPost-Rationality and Rationality, A DialogueA dialogue between R (rationalist) and P (post-rationalist) Any resemblance of these fictional characters to real people is not a coincidence because nothing is ever really a coincidence. R: I…pasha-kamyshev (35)in rationality • 6 years agoAumann’s Agreement RevisitedThis post is about reviewing some of the slightly counter-intuitive conclusions that Baysean probability theory has on agreement between people’s probabilities about the same belief. You have…pasha-kamyshev (35)in ai • 7 years agoDouble Cruxing the AI Foom debateThis post is generally in response to both Paul Christiano’s post and the original foom debate . I am trying to find the exact circumstances and conditions which would point to fast or slow…pasha-kamyshev (35)in fermiparadox • 7 years agoFermi ParadoxThis post has two parts. First, I outline some way to evaluate arguments about the Fermi paradox which show ways that it is unlikely to be solved by, as well as some common arguments against the…pasha-kamyshev (35)in cryptocurrency • 7 years agoEfficient Market Hypothesis ExplainedYou may have not have heard about the Efficient Markets Hypothesis or wondered how it would apply to different assets classes. However, if you have been in investing, you probably have heard at…pasha-kamyshev (35)in cryptocurrency • 7 years agoOn Crypto and The Classification BubbleThe post "How an Algorithm Feels from the Inside” is one the highlights of rationality. It has a lot packed into it, so here is my take on it. There is a program in your brain. I call it…pasha-kamyshev (35)in introduction • 7 years agoIntroductionHello, my name is Pasha. I am a software developer currently at Microsoft interested in cryptocurrency, rationality and AI Safety. My links: Life In A Free Market Twitter LinkedIn…
