Restart the search for MH370, the location of the black box where?

In January 22, 2018, the South India ocean in smooth water. West Australia Perth port 1200 sea miles, a ship equipped with a helipad and large lifting equipment of ships "seabed builders berthed at sea. The crew put down the slide frame to the sea, several boats along the orange bracket under the seabed.

20 days ago, on January 3rd, by some western media as "the earth's most advanced civilian ships" and "seabed builders" from South Africa to Durban to sail south India ocean longitude 92 degrees, 36 degrees south latitude near the sea. For the "seabed builders" of the United States submarine exploration company "ocean unlimited" to restart the search on Malaysia Airlines flight 370 (MH370) aircraft work.

In March 8, 2014, carrying 227 passengers and 12 crew flight MH370 aircraft took off from Kuala Lumpur International Airport, after more than two hours in flight lost contact. After two years, funded by the governments of Australia, Malaysia, China search operations covering 120 thousand square kilometers of sea area, but failed to find the body aircraft wreckage or black box.

"The ultimate fate of MH370 Airlines is still not clear." In October 3, 2017, the Department of transportation safety main body responsible for searching MH370 flight aircraft by the Australian government (ATSB) in the final investigation report regret to admit that the task failed. Prior to January 2017, $198 million of the job search has been suspended.

But that does not mean the end of suspension. In the final investigation report, the news of Malaysia government and private exploration company approached the sea.

"The government of Malaysia has been determined by the 'ocean unlimited' on the MH370 Aircraft Company re search." In January 5, 2018, the "third days of seabed builders" leaving Durban, MH370 flight passengers close relatives of the family support center received the mail. It is worth noting that five days later, the "ocean unlimited" was formally signed with the government in Malaysia in search of project contract. At this time, the "seabed builder" has been at sea for a week. "To take advantage of recent Western India good weather, we as early as possible to send ships to the designated area, to save time." The company explained that during the contract negotiation act in advance of the media.

March 8, 2018 is the MH370 flight aircraft lost contact 4th anniversary days. In February 27th, the "ocean infinity" and the Malaysia authorities jointly issued a new weekly search. To this day, the search work has been carried out for a month, 8200 square kilometers of water area has been scanned; the operation time and the operating range are close to all 1/3 of the plan, but there is no exciting news.

To search for "MH370," marine unlimited 'have the resources and technology." Senior air crash investigation experts, the Royal Aeronautical Society member John Cox told the "China news weekly" interview said, "but they will also face many difficulties, especially the lack of accurate location information search."

Is 30 degrees south latitude 35 degrees, or?

"We can confirm the search area found no traces of aircraft flight MH370." In October 2017, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau believes that in the final investigation report: From 2014 to 2017 for the first time in search of work sufficiently detailed and accurate, the key reason lies in the target area search failed, error.

March 8, 2014 morning, MH370 flight airliner last appeared on the radar screen position is northwest of Sumatra anda over the Andaman Sea, this is the last position information so far can confirm flight MH370 aircraft. Since then, the flight MH370 to fly the Boeing 777 airliner whereabouts triggered dozens of different speculation.

The most valuable source of evidence on India ocean monitoring satellite. Satellite data unit flight MH370 aircraft (SDU) in the aircraft disappeared from the radar screen after seven hours answering satellite signal, experts can be calculated between signals and the distance to the satellite, and projected to the earth.

According to the final report of 2017, excluding link on flight MH370 plane projection can not reach the area, the plane finally the location on the map was shortened to a road located in the waters of Western Australia arc, namely "seventh arc": a Southwest northeast trending arc. But to find the specific aircraft crashed, latitude information is needed. The Australian Transport Safety Bureau provides a guess: MH370 flight airliner disappeared from the radar screen after flying south to run out of fuel in seventh, automatic response fell into the sea. Accordingly, the expert will regional position measuring plane crash in the "seventh" arc of latitude 33 degrees to 39.5 degrees south.

Initially, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau designated search area of 60 thousand square kilometers of water; but in January 2017 search termination, Chinese, Australia, Malaysia and the three joint team has been searching for 120 thousand square kilometers of sea area. The final report will be referred to as "the largest range of human history of the underwater search operations".

Within this range, there are 661 areas caused by the search team attention, 81 regional scans showed possible traces of aircraft. However, in addition to find around the shipwreck debris, the search operation. "There has never been more understanding of flight MH370 aircraft could fall position." The final investigation report said that although the search was not successful, but at least "excludes most in the analysis may become MH370 placement area".

In July 29, 2015, India Ocean southwest of the island of La Reunion, the local people find a piece of metal products volume on the beach. In flight MH370 aircraft disappeared 508 days later, it was confirmed the flaperon appeared on the coast of reunion. Here with the people that flight MH370 aircraft could fall more than 5000 nautical miles from the waters.

Since then, the Reunion Island and India Ocean on the coast of Africa, people has found 25 aircraft parts, 3 of which were identified as belonging to MH370 flight aircraft, the other 10 also is thought to be derived from the missing aircraft Boeing 777. Based on the debris, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau of drift calculation and experiment.

"(drift starting point) in the largest possible latitude 35 degrees around." David Griffin presided over the scientists experiment on "news weekly" said Chinese. The expert group on the Griffin drift towards the detailed estimates, even on the basis of the float state model built into the sea, watching them in waves, wind in the activity. Accordingly, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau experts decided, Northwest flight MH370 aircraft landing may in the first search area of 25 thousand square kilometers.

American engineer Victor Inello China on "news weekly" said that Griffin's calculation conclusion has scientific basis, but still not accurate. 包括伊内洛在内，由工程师和科学家组成的独立专家组也进行了漂流物测算，认为MH370航班客机最后的落点位于澳大利亚官方测算水域的北侧。

"Drift on the status of barnacles can tell us which float through the sea water temperature conditions in the region," the independent expert group members, the British scholar Richard Godfrey wrote in a February 2017 paper, these fragments have been drifting barnacles winding, some very clean, "barnacle growth in the area of 19 to 25 DEG C. in more than 25 DEG C there is no barnacles." India has a detailed record of the real-time temperature measurement. By comparing the currents and temperature, Godfrey speculated that if the drift from the point of view of the "seventh" arc of latitude 29 degrees to 31 degrees south latitude, most likely in the corresponding time period by the corresponding temperature of the sea, the beach was found to arrive at their final. 伊内洛认为，这个“南纬30度周边”的结论，也符合MH370客机突然向南转向后以正常速度飞行至燃料耗尽最终坠落的地点。

"The two regional programme for marine unlimited" without the Australian Transport Safety Bureau and the independent expert group designated to make trade-offs. According to the plan, the "seabed builder" will be the first in the delineation of Griffin and colleagues in the range of 25 thousand square kilometers to find traces of aircraft flight MH370. If there is no harvest, the search team will continue to the north, scanning the independent expert group proposed 30 degrees south latitude waters.

"We support from the Australian Transport Safety Bureau designated area to start the search." Inello told the "Chinese news weekly", if there is no harvest in this region, "I certainly agree with their" seventh arc "along the north to continue the search". When asked about the probability of search success, who graduated from Massachusetts Institute of Technology engineer said: "the probability of success will depend on the final search for wide area. If they go north to 30 degrees south latitude area search, I think they have great hopes of finding the wreckage of MH370."

"Marine unlimited" selection will directly with them to get much reward related. According to the "infinite ocean" and Malaysia reached an agreement, if the company found MH370 aircraft in the core of the designated area of 5000 square kilometers within the wreckage or black box, you can get $20 million reward; if in the designated area in other places to find the aircraft, can get a maximum of $50 million; if the final in the 25 thousand square kilometers completed the search task will be paid up to $70 million; but if the company had in the 90 day period, they shall bear all expenses.

According to the "infinite ocean" and the Malaysia official in February 27th jointly released the latest search weekly, the search work time and scope of work are close to all 1/3 of the plan, but no major discovery. However, the "seabed builder" in February 12th to return to Hong Kong after the recharge and to stay near the sea before. Some analysts believe that this means that the search has a harvest in the region may be related. However, in addition to mention scan information in two images need further investigation, the official did not disclose more search results.

There is a gap between data and reality

According to the contract, "the ocean of infinite area of 25 thousand square kilometers and designated in addition to the 30 degrees south sea exploration, to be completed within a period of 90 days. 8 ships of independent water it all depends on the company in 2017 for the first time use of the vehicle (AUV), with no other underwater detector.

"Marine unlimited" company official website said the trial of AUV is the most advanced in the world". Went to the "seabed builder", with "the economist" magazine reporter Hodson also said in the report, If the "seabed builder" on the equipment are unable to find the MH370 flight aircraft, the mystery may never be solved."

A search for MH370, Australian experts are considered AUV technology. The final investigation report of 2017, when the "only two options: AUV or cable underwater detector". Finally, by the ship through the cable drag cable detector has become a major tool for the period from 2014 to 2017 search MH370.

"AUV is the biggest defect must be in before the battery runs out it will be safe to recover." In the final report, the main question of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau is proposed by AUV, the problem of battery life. Although there are hundreds of global AUV production, but to engage in deep-sea survey work has almost no choice, because they can participate in the search operation AUV a charge work no longer than 26 hours.

In April 14, 2014, Australia sea shield ships had used a ship AUV for 44 days of search for the "seventh" arc of 21 degrees south latitude sea area. But the practice proved that, due to lack of endurance, a AUV can detect the day area less than 20 square kilometers.

The mode of information transmission at the time trial AUV also has obvious shortcomings, it can only get the data under the water stored in the storage unit, researchers need to unload boats, recovery of memory read data. These problems result in time and money costs AUV in a large-scale search work cost is too high.

A cable detector does not exist the problem. Because the cable is connected with the ship into the sea, once it is sustainable for several weeks, the data can also be reached by cable processing center on the ship. Therefore, although the cable detector clumsy, but it was listed as "more efficient in large-scale search tools". Finally, a cable detector and AUV supplemented by becoming the first search mode. High cost and low efficiency of AUV although participated in the search operation, but the task is only in the cable detector cannot work complex topography regional information acquisition.

但 “海洋无限”方面称，它们已经解决了澳大利亚交通安全局当初对AUV提出的质疑。 The ship put in search of work 8 AUV can work 60 hours continuously in 3 nautical miles per hour, than endurance class AUV in 2014 more than doubled. The new battery pack can keep 400 hours without replacement. To solve the main questions in the final report after AUV compared with cable detector flexible advantage is developed. In the view of Plunkett, the advantage of AUV is not limited to "can work independently".

根据最终调查报告，有缆探测器的缺陷是“无机动性”。 Because must be fixed in the water under a certain height, cable detector to adapt to complex sea environment is difficult to. In search of the MH370, and even hit the bottom of Shanghai volcano accident detector. "Some of the search area of the underwater environment is relatively poor, there is a steep slope, undersea mountains and caves. These will make the seabed scanning has become very difficult." Inello to Chinese "Newsweek" introduction, "in this case, the performance of AUV is better than the traditional cable detector is much better."

"Marine unlimited" AUV equipment manufactured by a Norway company, is one of the world's strongest civil AUV mobility at present. This 6.2 meters long and weighs about 1850 kg of water under the boat to reach a top speed of 6 knots, maximum dive depth of 6000 meters. In the test the ocean infinite "before, the AUV had to dive to the bottom of the sea 5680 meters. Before the search for MH370 cable detector, generally only dive to 4000 meters.

In addition, the "ocean unlimited" also uses a core technology: a world first, can let 8 aircraft work with AUV software system. AUV above every ship under water, will be a unmanned surface vehicle (USV) transmission signal; 8 ships on water USV and then transmitted to the data center of the ship. The test before the company released the video display, precise location of each AUV will appear in the "seabed builder" in the cabin on the big screen.

"The 8 ship AUV day can detect the area of 1200 square kilometers." Plunkett told the media. On this basis, if the "seabed builder" on the 8 ships, 8 ships AUV USV synchronous work, only 100 days can be completed before the hunt for more than two years, covering 120 thousand square kilometers of sea area work. Plunkett said: "this means that if there is no harvest in the 25 thousand square kilometers of planned waters, we still have time and conditions for large-scale search."

However, although the "marine unlimited" equipment AUV endurance than the first generation models more than doubled, compared to a dive can work for several weeks with cable detector, AUV time cost endurance of 60 hours is still high. "Marine unlimited" search team only one ship, a survey ship auxiliary vessels and 65 crew.

In December 2017, the Australian expert Griffin was ordered to carry out scientific guidance on the "marine unlimited" personnel. Visit the company, Griffin told the media: "this is an impressive organization, they have excellent equipment." But in an "Chinese news weekly" interview, Griffin said: "I cannot answer about equipment problems, my research expertise in the ocean, rather than detection equipment."

0:55 on January 22, 2018, the first AUV into the water from the "seabed builder" no.. In January 23rd, the company announced "marine unlimited" in social media: AUV has deployed 8 ships. This is the first time the company achieved 8 aircraft AUV, 8 ship USV synchronous operation. The following week, AUV fleet completed 4500 square kilometers of sea area, part of the proof of the company's publicity.

However, after three weeks of development shows that there is a gap between data and reality. Two suspicious objects found in the data recovery unit, search fleet repeatedly delayed the re-entry time, back to the relevant waters, re deployment of AUV for exploration, therefore slows down the progress. The first week of searching the waters of 4500 square kilometers, the fleet after three week a total of only 3000 square kilometers of the scanning area expansion.

Accept the "China news weekly" interview, John Cox said, In addition to the regional information and technical problems, the depth of the ocean, the weather will become the "ocean of infinite" in search of aircraft during a challenge.

Because the India ocean waves, "seabed builders" from the port of Durban, arrived in the area of operation time is four days later than planned. According to the search progress fourth times weekly, due to inclement weather, the search fleet February 20th has been "standby" in February 15th, failed to carry out according to the plan. 加上从搜寻水域回港补给的往返时间，90天的搜寻期限并没有那么宽裕。

There is no information transparency, trust is impossible

The early morning of February 1, 2018, the "seabed builder" suddenly closed the AIS satellite signal can display the location of the ship. This makes the outside unscrutable search fleet travel trends, resulting in a variety of speculation. In the morning of February 4th, the search vessel re opened AIS signal.

For the close signal, Malaysia transport minister Liao Zhonglai said the search for the vessel is in port. But the AIS signal display "seabed builders" began to re open after the signal in return. The analysts believe that the closing signal is to avoid excessive expectations of families ", the Malaysia Department of transportation said only, during the search of MH370 was not found in the wreckage of the ship. According to Australian media reports, "marine unlimited" refused to close the AIS signal a media interview. As of press time, the company also did not respond to "Chinese news weekly" interview requests.

"Infinite ocean" and other related parties must be willing to share information, search work requires a high degree of transparency." John Cox on the "news weekly" said China. At present, neither search for the ship on behalf of the families, there is no media reporter. Inouchi Ronori pointed out: "the cover off AIS, further undermining public confidence on the survey...... There is no information transparency, trust is impossible."

The Malaysia government has an obligation to search aircraft lost contact and MH370 incident investigation." "Marine unlimited" to restart the search after MH370, the office for the coordination of the Australian government joint agency (JACC) said in a statement: Australia will provide technical support, but "all about to restart the search problem should be given directly with officials in Malaysia". Although the proposed new search area, but the final investigation report, the Australian Transport Safety Bureau released in October 2017 that unless there is strong evidence of the emergence of new, otherwise Australia will not restart the investigation. In an China "Newsweek", the Australian Transport Safety Bureau also said, do not respond to any problems associated with the search.

However, the search for the first time to suspend the action did not affect the independent work of the group of experts. After January 2017, the independent expert group is still in "analysis from the start where search again". "I believe that our results will promote the search restart." Inello on the "China news weekly" said, "we have been committed to unlock the MH370 flight airliner missing mystery."

"Find the plane" is only the first step to solve the mystery. Such as Malaysia's transport minister Liao Zhonglai said in a press conference on January 10th, "the main task of marine unlimited" is "to confirm the wreckage or the location of the black box". As for the confirmation of salvage, analysis the working position, only with the detection capability of the "infinite ocean" is not responsible for. At a press conference on January 2018, Plunkett explained that "infinite ocean" of the mind: "in the process of providing answers for those affected by the disaster to the people, we hope to do something."

"If you are willing to take the risk, I think this is a good opportunity, but I can not predict the results." For many years to participate in the MH370 flight search and analysis of David Griffin commented "try marine unlimited". John Cox told the "China news weekly": "one thing is clear, if not to find the aircraft, will not find it."