AFL FANTASY 2018 - Keepers, Bargains and Cash Cows Part 1

Hi all,

Welcome to my first AFL Fantasy blog of the year.
As we enter February, the JLT series is just around the corner and AFL Fantasy is back open!
In this Part 1 I will preview some good buys for Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton and Collingwood.
I will update future parts over the coming days and cover all 18 sides.

Why should you listen to me?
I have been playing for years, I know every player in the comp and although I have never won the whole thing I always finish in in the top %2-3.

If you have struggled in your mate's leagues, cash leagues etc hopefully I can be your secret weapon!
This is the first of 4 Parts (4 teams in the first and 5 in the last 2) and I will do another 4 Part Preview after the JLT series.

If I get the readers, once the season kicks off I will do a weekly blog offering tips as we go.

So for each team my categories are:

Must have - contains keepers you should strongly consider building your team around or just absolute price bargains

Keepers – as the name suggest select with a view to keeping them all season

Keeper Cows - No man’s land price types, neither cash cow nor elite keeper. Select with a view that this will be their
"breakout" year. Ultimately give you the scores of an elite keeper but for a cheaper initial price.

Cash Cows – Cheap speculative types that you believe will go well and build that all important bankroll. Get your Cash Cows wrong and your season is over before it began.

Avoid like the Plague- Either injured, or too risky types or just completely overpriced

• Any players not listed at all are ones I would not recommend at this stage. Some new faces will no doubt bob up through the pre season competition

Huge watch on Bryce Gibbs this year. Will explode at the Crows!

DEFENDERS
T DOEDEE 170k Defender - Cash Cow
Highly rated athletic 189cm Defender described as an intercept marking king in the SANFL last year.
Will get 1st crack at the vacant defence spot left by Lever. If he has a good JLT series he is a must have on your bench at bargain basement price of $170k.

MIDFIELDERS
R SLOANE $754k Midfield - Keeper
God can this bloke go humongous on his day. Had a high score of 157 last season and averaged 133 in his last 3 home and away matches.
The only knock on him is he can have a problem with taggers and had 5 games last season with a scores of just 34, 47, 59, 62 and 65.
His big days make up for it I guess but I not sure I would risk him at 790k.

M CROUCH $752k Midfield - Keeper
Youngest Crouch brother and probably a touch more prolific scorer than his brother.
Became an A grade midfielder last year with a massive 106 point average and was nearly a premiership one as well.
Very close to being a must have given he still has further improvement ahead of him.

B CROUCH 726k Midfield- Keeper
Oldest Crouch brother and member of the Crows Fab Four midfield.
103 point average and seems to of shaken off the injury curse now.
Had the best season of his career last year.

DUAL POSITION
D FOGARTY $248K Midfielder/Forward - Cash Cow
SA under 18s captain touted as a top 5 selection at last year’s draft but amazingly slid through to the crows pick 12.
A huge delight for Crows fans after a tough trade period. A natural midfielder but he won't get a look in there at the Crows given all the talent they have. He is a dual position forward and that is where I think he will get a bit of game time this year.
Is 193cm with elite skills and could be steal at that price. Keep a big eye on his JLT series.

P SEEDSMAN $460K Midfielder/Defender - Keeper Cow
Former Collingwood player and Anzac medalist Seedsman had an injury riddled 2017 and this sees his price moderately low at $460k.
Had a few nice games towards the end of last season to remind us of his quality and has had a full pre season.
$460k is a little bit of a no mans land price although scope for a bit of profit as Seedsman could easily crack 650k if he gets going.
I see him more as a possible cheap keeper for 2 reasons:
He is a dual defender and not a heap of high scoring talent in that pool.
Secondly I think he going to get a pretty cruisy wing role and won't be heavily tagged given all the other talent the crows possess in that midfield.

FORWARDS
T LYNCH 640k Forward - Keeper
A star for the crows in the forward line with a very solid 90 point average.
No stranger to cracking the ton (100) as he did so 9 times last season with a high of 139.
Mostly reliable type with a high ceiling but does have the odd shocker in his locker. 640k is about
the right price and he'd be a nice buy.

MUST HAVE:
R LAIRD $707k Defender – Must Have Keeper
A grade defender with a 100 point average. They don't grow on trees. Very durable and worth every cent of that $707k price tag.

S JACOBS $700k Ruck - Must Have Keeper
If he is not the safest ruck choice in AFL Fantasy this year he is very close to it. A 100 point average and very durable. Will be the 1st choice ruck for a lot of players this year.

B GIBBS $790k Midfield - Must Have Keeper
Ex Carlton superstar joins the Crows and really completes a scary good midfield for them. Had a high score of 194 last year which is a jaw dropping score and only dropped under 90 points once.
Extremely durable and consistent with a very high ceiling.
Had 16 games over 100 points last year in a struggling side.
Imagine what he is going to do at the Crows. Hefty price tag but leave him out at your peril.

Avoid like the Plague:
TEX WALKER 568k Forward
At first glance his 80 point average and 568K price tag seems not so bad.
Is a terrific captain for the crows but unfortunately a very unreliable scorer.
Did ton up 4 times last season but had 9 sub 70 scores and 3 more in the 70s.
I can find a bloke that does that for a lot cheaper than 568K.

B SMITH 561k Defence
Did his ACL late last season and unlikely to get on the park this year.

DEFENDERS
C COX $321k Defender- Cash Cow
Probably the toughest part of the ground in dream team to find low price good scoring options.
Hopefully the up and coming JLT series will expose a few and one to keep an eye on is 2nd year player Cox.
Early 2nd round pick in 2016 Cox heads into his 2nd season with 8 AFL games under his belt.
Only has an average of 48 per game but looks a classy player and I expect him to break into that Lions side pretty easily.
If he can hold down a half back flank role we know how high possession they can be in the modern game and Cox does already have a high of 95 in a match.
Speculative selection but at 321K could be a value one. Keep an eye on him in the JLT series.

M EAGLES 170k Defender – Cash Cow
Mature age recruit a couple of years ago and has plied his trade in the NEAFL.
Had an outstanding year last year in the NEAFL culminating in an outstanding intercept marking performance in the NEAFL grand final.
Strong athletic 27 year old key defender ready to step straight in to the Seniors when opportunity presents.
Probably needs either a change of position or injury to strike one of Mcstay, Gardiner or Andrews to get a game.
At bottom end price of 170k he could make you a nice profit if he lands one of those key defensive posts.
Another to watch out for in the JLT series

MIDFIELDERS
J BERRY $423K Midfielder – Keeper Cow
Probably a touch too expensive at that price given he only a 2nd year player but he looks to be something pretty special.
2016 1st round draft pick and played 16 games in his debut season.
Seemed to cope with the physicality of AFL footy easily in his first season and looks to of already cemented a spot in the Lions midfield rotation.
Scored over 70 in 5 of his last 8 games. His last 4 games went 82, 79, 82 and 91. Could be worth a look

D BEAMS $736k Midfielder - Keeper
The Lions captain is a premium Fantasy scorer with a 105 point average.
I left him out of the Must Have section as he is injury prone but he did play 19 games last season.
He is enjoying a full pre season so now has his body right. Scored over 140 five times last season and his 105 point average doesn’t do him justice given Mumford took him out in the first minute of one match. Not too many in the comp score more than Beams

RUCKS
O MCINERNEY $170K - Cash Cow
Mature age recruit who starred in the NEAFL last year for the lions.
Is physically ready to play seniors and given the lions only have 3 rucks on their list he is bound to get a chance this year
especially if a wrong side of 30 Stef Martin gets injured. Lions are so happy with him and their other back up ruck Smith that they passed on Lobbe in trade week.
At bottom price of $170k McInerney is a perfect bench option

FORWARDS
E HIPWOOD $321K Forward- Cash Cow
Most pundits agree this athletic tall forward is an up and coming superstar of the competition.
Only has a 48 point average but expect that to increase this year as he has another pre season under his belt and will get a lot more support in that lions forward line. Should be ready to explode and at such a low price, he should be a nice money earner.

DUAL POSITION
C RAYNER $270K midfielder/forward - Cash Cow
The number 1 pick in the 2017 draft is having a superb pre season at the lions and will be a walk up start into their round 1 team.
Will get stints on the ball throughout the year but expect to see him learn his craft on the half forward flank.
Given Brisbane has such a young list he will have no problems cementing his spot in the best 22.
At 270k I would expect a profit of at least 200-250k on that start up price. Don't leave him out

Number 1 pick C Rayner has been compared to a young Dusty Martin

MUST HAVES
A CHRISTENSEN $331k Forward – Absolute Bargain
Has has a couple of injury plagued years. Is a an 80-90 points a game scorer when up and running.
Has had a full pre season, is in the lion leadership group and will be a very important forward for them this year who will also get stints on the ball. A must have at that price

D ZORKO $805k Midfielder – Must Have Keeper
Became dream team elite last year with a huge season. The little magician had a 114 point a game season average and went over 100 in 15 of his 21 matches.
Had some monster scores of 181, 157 (twice), 139 and 131 in there as well. Only negative is the taggers did get a hold of him twice last year for scores of 45 & 48. Lions midfield depth coming on in leaps and bounds so going to make it harder for opposition taggers to purely focus in on Zorko.
I think it is too big a risk not to take him but a few players may hold off hoping for a slight price drop before snapping him up.

A WITHERDEN $604k Defender - Must Have Keeper
$604k for a 2nd year player! Have not seen that happen too often before and definitely not for a defender.
To put this price in context the 2016 number 1 draft pick Mcgrath who went on win the Rising Star Award after a fantastic season is 496k.
Not enough superlatives to describe how good this kid is so I'll let the facts do the talking.
Has played just 9 games in his career and gone under 70 once and that was a 69.
Has an average of 88 and already cracked the ton. For a defender this is outstanding.
Has had a full pre season and will be exciting to see what he produces in his 2nd year.
He could well finish the year as the highest fantasy scoring defender in the comp.

Avoid Like the Plague:

L HODGE 612k Defender
Football royalty in defence who will be sure to tempt a few loyalists to him but don’t get caught up in emotion and risk it. He is 33 years old, retired but then came back to join the Lions in more of an on field leadership role.
He will be fantastic for the Lions and was a coup for them to get him but his body is a huge risk.
Will be periodically rested throughout the year and I can’t see him having the same scoring output as at Hawthorn.
Price is way too high, avoid.

DEFENDERS
C MARCHBANK $489K Defender - Keeper Cow
Will be entering his 4th season of AFL football and we can expect to start seeing his best football this year.
Carlton would be thrilled with what they saw in the Defenders 16 games for the club last season.
Had a 69 point average but this is deceptive and not a true indication of his worth.
He was heavily affected by scores or 58, 44, 31 and 40 in his last 4 games when he was playing under an injury cloud which affected his form.
Only went under 70 three times in his first 12 matches with scores in the 80s 7 times.
$489k is a great price for a ready made defender who is ready to thrive this season.

MIDFIELDERS
M KENNEDY $485K Midfielder - Keeper Cow
Was originally one of GWS’ highly rated Riverina Academy stars who spent his first 2 seasons there before moving to the Blues in the off season.
Played 16 games last season for the Giants for a 69 point average. Looks to be a very nice player who knows how to get the ball on the inside and the outside.
Has a high of 97 but also a low of 37. He will be a full time midfielder at Carlton and a replacement for Bryce Gibbs.
I expect this to be a break out year for the classy midfielder and I would risk him even at the no man’s land price of 485k.

P DOW $266k Midfielder - Cash Cow
Number 3 selection in last years draft is a ready made explosive on baller. Is impressing in his first pre season at the club and will be a walk up start for round 1. Will get plenty of opportunity at the blues in his first season and will be a profitable option.

FORWARDS
C CURNOW $502K Forward - Keeper Cow
Budding superstar tall forward, I was a bit disappointed when I saw his price tag of $502K this year.
Had a 71 point average last year and cracked the ton (100) twice. Is going to be an absolute beast of a player now he has another pre season of weights training under his belt.
Probably too pricey at 502k starting point but considering how high his ceiling could be this year he is worth considering.

The next big thing?

H MCKAY $225K Forward - Cash Cow
Has only played 2 games but looks a special tall forward in the making. Blues fans must be licking their lips at the prospect of Curnow and Mckay playing together up forward for the next decade. Expect to see Mckay play a lot more football this year for the Blues and at 225k is a bargain selection.
Will make you a very nice profit. Keep an eye out for him in the JLT series

DUAL POSITION
L O'BRIEN $252K Defender/Midfielder - Cash Cow
Pick 10 in last year’s draft who I can see finding a spot in Carlton’s back 6 very quickly.
Has exceptional decision making, is very fast and is an elite kick. Came 2nd in the AFL combine endurance 2km test so will cope with running demands of the half back flank. Could have potential to do what Witherden did at the Lions last year in his 1st season. Keep an eye on him in the JLT series.

S PETROVSKI-SETON $478K midfielder/forward - Keeper Cow
A lot of AFL fantasy value at Carlton this season and here is another one. Was a top 5 pick in the 2016 national draft and repaid the faith with a ripping 1st year in the midfield/forward line for the blues. Classy and pacy he will get more midfield time this year and will rapidly improve on his 68 average. As a forward he is hard to leave out

MUST HAVE
M MURPHY $782k Midfielder - Must Have Keeper
The Blues skipper is in his prime and had a huge 111 per round average in 2017 but may attract some more attention from the taggers this year with Gibbs gone.
Still a must have as only dropped under 70 once and went over 100 a massive 17 times last year with a high of 145. A safe pick

P CRIPPS $692k Midfielder - Must Have Keeper
Injury finished Cripps season early last season but he still managed 15 games for a 98 point average which grossly under sells what this guy brings to the dream team table. Has a high of 143 and entering his prime now.
I don’t imagine he will drop under 100 points a week to often this year and at 692k will be one of the first picked in my side this year.

M KREUZER $740k Ruck - Must Have Keeper
As far as ruckman go this year you can’t do much better than Kreuzer. A 105 point average with a high of 149 to his name last year.
Looks to of shaken off the injury curse playing 21 games. Will be the 1st choice Ruck of a lot of Fantasy sides this year.

Avoid Like the Plague
S DOCHERTY $823k Defender
Prolific scoring defender who would have been 1st picked in %90 of dream teams this year but has done his ACL and is out for the year.

ED CURNOW $621k Midfielder
Don’t let his high ceiling suck you in he can just as easily give you a 50 any given week. Frustratingly inconsistent and not worth $621k.
Will struggle to maintain that price

DEFENDERS
M SCHARENBERG $548K Defender - Keeper Cow
At first glance he is ridiculously over priced for a guy that missed his first 2 years of football to knee injuries and only has 10 games to his name.
Only a 78 point average but my interest stems from how comfortable he looked at the top level in those last 5 games where he went over 90 in 4 of them.
Big scoring/high possession defenders are not easy to find so Scharenberg worth consideration despite the price.

RUCKS
B GRUNDY $748K Ruck - Must Have Keeper
Would be in a close battle with Jacobs & Kreuzer for the most picked Ruckman this year and is my number 1 choice.
106 point average in 2017. Is still young and has shown late in the year he can push forward for a goal or two.
Has the most upside of all the rucks for mine

MIDFIELDERS
S PENDLEBURY $767K Midfielder - Keeper
His age and his still very high price tag meant I couldn’t include him in my must have list but he is still well worth considering.
109 point average and cracked the ton in 10 of his 16 games with 4 others in the 90s.
With his age I suspect he will see less and less midfield time so he might be worth waiting until he gets dual position status later on.

FORWARDS
K KIRBY $185K Forward - Cash Cow
Finished 2nd in the VFL goalkicking last season and finally broke through for his 1st game in round 23.
Described as a cross between Byron Pickett and Cyril Rioli. Big watch in the JLT series.
At cheap as chips price of 185k he is a great bench option for you and potentially will make owners a decent profit.

DUAL POSITION
J DE GOEY $560K Forward/Midfielder - Keeper
Entering his 4th season and big expectations on De Goey this year. Showed what he can do last year with 4 tons but also could be inconsistent.
Will be a handy forward in your fantasy side as I expect he will be a full time midfielder this year. Is an elite talent and can get forward for a goal.
Is a bit pricey compared to what he has achieved thus far but worth the risk for mine

J STEPHENSON $260K Forward/Midfielder - Cash Cow
Was touted as a possible number 1 pick at last years draft such is the class of this midfielder.
Ended up sliding to 6 when doctors found a pre existing minor heart condition. Was given the green light to play AFL and doctors assured him his condition would not affect his endurance at the top level.
Is a competitive animal and will be pushing for a spot in the Pies best 22 straight off the bat.
Some real money to be made on this kid. Keep an eye on his JLT series.

Expect to see a lot of this guy in the black and white this season

N MURPHY $194K Defender/Forward - Cash Cow
This is a gut feel one here but I remember seeing him in the under 18s and thinking he had the makings of a special player. How he went at pick 39 in the draft is beyond me. Don’t be a surprised if he is a real bolter and gets in to the pies side early.
Very handy dual position of forward/defender and almost entry level price. Yet another to keep an eye out for in the JLT series.

MUST HAVE
T ADAMS $808K Midfielder - Must Have Keeper
Was everyones favourite last year when was handed dual status of defender/midfielder but no such luck this year as back to being only a midfielder.
His ridiculous 115 points per game average and consistency means he is a must have regardless of position. 15 games over 100 is elite. 2 were even over 150 so he has a very high ceiling.
Still only young and entering his prime this year. You can’t go wrong picking him in your midfield

TRELOAR $761K Midfielder - Must Have Keeper
What a superstar this guy is. 108 point average, played 21 games last year with 14 games over 100 and a further 4 in the 90s. Had a high round score of 144 so has high ceiling as well. In the prime of his career and will be right up high in the Brownlow market. Get him in

SIDEBOTTOM $745K Midfielder - Must Have Keeper
Collingwood boast such an impressive midfield you can sometimes forget about Sidey. He just keeps getting it and boasts a 106 point average.
16 games over 100 points and only went under 90 three times last season. I guess there is only so many Pies players you can fit into you midfield but Sidebottom would be another safe as houses selection.

Avoid Like the Plague
J AISH $421K Midfielder
What an epic fail this guy has been for 2 clubs now. Poor old Lions took him with pick 7 where he showed promised in his first year before suffering the 2nd year blues. Inexplicably left the Lions not to go home (he is from Adelaide) but to go to a Collingwood side bursting out the seams with talented midfielders.
Not sure what sort of career advice his manager was giving him and unsuprisingly he has struggled to get a game for the last 2 years. Too many have gone past him and pies unsuccessfully tried to trade him in the off season.
Will be on his last chance this year and whilst the Pies will no doubt give him a chance or two, I suspect he will spend the majority of the year in the VFL.

D WELLS $544K Midfielder
$544k for a guy that played 10 games last year, is 32 and have an average of 77? Um, no thanks.
Is a classy player no doubt and his 143 in round 19 last year against the crows reminded me of that but just no.

C MAYNE $430k Forward
Needs no explanation other than to say don't spend 430 thousand on a bloke that no longer possesses any form of football ability.
His fat contract makes him literally too expensive to delist so the Pies are stuck with him. You will find yourself in the same position if you pay that much for him.

Part 2 will be up soon

-Dahmsy