We've all heard the phrase "Just the luck of the draw" thrown around in sporting parlance. It's often used to brush off a bit of bad luck, or even good fortune. But let's take a little bit of a closer look at what that means for us here in the Steemit Classic League.
What I have below is a way to attribute a value to just how lucky (or unlucky) we all are over the course of the season.
So how does it work? At the end of each round, I rank everyone's score in order from highest to lowest, then each score is attributed a Win Value based on the number of teams you potentially could have beaten, for example if you top scored, you would beat 19 out of 19 possible opponents, so you would be credited with 1 win. If you bottom score, you'd beat 0 out of 19, so you would get 0 wins. If you have the 5th highest score, you'd beat 15 out of 19 opponents, so you'd get 15/19ths of a win (0.789). Once each team is allocated their Win Value, we can then compare the Win Value (or statistically probable estimated wins) to the Actual Wins. A score where Actual Wins > Expected Wins is a Lucky Score. A score where Actual Wins < Expected Wins is an Unlucky Score.
So let's look at Round 2
Once again, Adro's Assassins top scored, so he gets 1 Expected Win, and Nzl19500 bottomed out so they get 0 Expected Wins. The rest of us fall somewhere in between.
So from Luckiest to Unluckiest for the round,
Lockout - +0.632
Lions4Life - +0.474
Playing For Draft Picks - +0.368
Dahmsey79 - -0.316
BraphB - +0.263
Hannibal's Leftovers - +0.211
Nige's Cats - +0.158
Mmeow - +0.105
Medhurst's Minions - +0.053
Adro's Assassins - EVEN
Nzl19500 - EVEN
I Wear Footy Pyjamas - -0.053
Cunning Stunts - -0.105
Kulate - -0.158
Piston-Broke - -0.211
Steemit Huskies - -0.263
Dblstr - -0.316
Just2Random - -0.421
Little Old Lady - -0.474
Buffalo Bisons - -0.579
So as we can see, Lockout is the luckiest for the round, having scored a win with a score that would have lost 12 of the other teams in the competition. At the other end of the scale, Buffalo Bisons would have beaten 11 of the other teams in the comp, but walked away without the points.
Now let's see how the cumulative Luck Ladder looks.
Lockout - +0.895
Playing For Draft Picks - +0.684
Mmeow - +0.526
Hannibal's Leftovers - +0.422
Niges Cats - +0.316
BraphB - +0.316
Lions4Life - +0.263
Just2Random - +0.158
Medhurst's Minions + 0.158
Adro's Assassins - EVEN
Nzl19500 - EVEN
I Wear Footy Pyjamas - -0.106
Dahmsey79 - -0.210
Buffalo Bisons - -0.211
Kulate - -0.316
Cunning Stunts -0.368
Dblstr - -0.421
Steemit Huskies - -0.579
Piston-Broke - -0.579
Little Old Lady - -0.948
So that's the luck of the draw for week 2. I'll update this each week through the course of the season so we can all keep track of how we're travelling...
Cheers,
Sparkesy