Passover Easter Long Range Snow Chances Warmer Air Coming

We are going to cover a lot of things in this JOESTRADAMUS post. First off is the weekend coming up. Passover begins Friday night and we have Easter Sunday. There are no major problems for the weekend. We have a cold front moving through on Friday with some morning showers and then leftover clouds Friday afternoon. We should begin to clear out Friday night so the rain will be long gone. Saturday looks like a nice day overall with sunshine and clouds and highs in the 50s.

GFS MODEL SUNDAY APRIL 1, 2018 8AM

Easter Sunday brings a cold front through early in the day and there could be a passing brief shower with this when i passes by Sunday morning. Once that front goes by we should go to a mix of sun and clouds for the rest of the day with temperatures in the 50s. Then we move into next week when a cold upper air pattern dominates North America and this will bring weather systems through here next week.

GFS UPPER AIR FORECAST TUESDAY APRIL 4, 8PM

Passover Easter Long Range Snow Chances Warmer Air Coming

The upper flow is a cold one with a strong vortex in Hudson Bay locked up for all of next week. Since the blocky pattern is over the polar region and not over the North Atlantic weather systems will be moving along. The first one will pass to our south on Monday. With the broad flow this will be weak and precipitation is likely to be just to our south but clouds certainly could be here on Monday. It might be cold enough for some snow on the northern fringe but for now there is nothing here that seems problematic. Another shot of cold air follows a cold front that moves through Tuesday night. This may set up the one legitimate chance for snow late next week.

GFS UPPER AIR FRIDAY APRIL 6, 2018

Weather models are showing the locked up vortex in Canada pulling out but one last trough stretches back southwestward over the Western Great Lakes. The European model yesterday was rather aggressive with this and still has the same idea from last night's run. That trough will have to dig southeastward and much further west than what the GFS is showing at the moment.

EUROPEAN MODEL FRIDAY APRIL 7TH 2018 7PM

We also need to remember that the European has not exactly hit home runs this winter so right now we hold this up on the idea that maybe, just maybe, the European has decided that it is going to be right this time. It is alot to ask. After this plays through models show the pattern changing to a ridge in the Eastern US which could bring some warmer weather for the week of April 9th-13th.

Obviously the variability factor is large going forward so we view all of this with healthy skepticism at this stage. If we are going to see one last gasp of winter snow, it is going to have to coincide with a near perfect set up aloft. It's a lot to ask given all the seasonal factors but there are enough chess pieces moving around to keep us interested.

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Posted from my blog with SteemPress : http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2018/03/28/passover-easter-long-range-snow-chances-warmer-air-coming/