Quick Snow Burst Friday Morning Snow Saturday Puzzling

When all of this is over with I'm going to take a well deserved vacation away from all this. Unfortunately I don't see this coming until after we get through at least the first half of next week. We have two weather systems front and center. There is no point even speculating on the third at this point until we get through the first two. As far as Friday morning is concerned this is a quick burst of snow that moves through as a weak warm front moves northward, low pressure moves across upstate NY and a cold front follows later in the evening. The NAM model seems to have a good handle on this so it argues for a coating to an inch or so in most places just inland of the coast between 5am & 10am. It snows and then melts within an hour or so of ending and by lunch time you wouldn't even have known it snowed.

SNOW FORECAST NAM MODEL FOR FRIDAY MORNING ENDING 10AM

Quick Snow Burst Friday Morning Snow Saturday Puzzling

Now we move into Saturday as a cold front passes through Friday evening and then a wave develops on the front and moves rather quickly east northeastward out of Tennessee Valley to offshore by late Saturday. In many ways this looks just like what we went through on Monday. However there are some differences in the timing where the bulk of the snow falls during the morning hours into early afternoon. This makes predicting what we get from this very difficult. Accumulations will hinge on snow intensity during the morning between 5am and 10am before the sun angle comes into play.

NAM MODEL 1PM SATURDAY APRIL 7, 2018

As we saw on Monday and at least a hundred times before (in case you weren't paying attention) snow intensity trumps everything working against accumulations including molten lava. This brings us back to the orignal question...how much? This again looks to set up in New Jersey north of Route 195 and in NY State south of Route 84. Immediate coastal areas around Long Island and in NJ along and just south of the turnpike may start as rain until intensity and cold air gets totally worked into the equation. Right now my best guess at this early stage is the potential for several slushy inches. It probably prudent to go in this direction until it becomes clear how much melted precipitation this system generates. Most models are arguing for at least a half to three quarters of an inch of liquid which matches up well with the last event.

GFS SATURDAY AFTERNOON 2PM APRIL 7, 2018

Interestingly the GFS is the colder of all the models at this point arguing for all snow everywhere with the moderate to occasionally heavy snow in the darker blue shadings. This is coming from the same model that struggled with cold air for weeks back in late February and early March.

For now at least we know we will see something out of this and again, several slushy inches seems to be a good place to be regarding an early call at this point. We have plenty of time to watch and adjust here in either direction.

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