Hello, everyone.
Long time no see. It was a long time without any real tournament where I could see value in some of the bets, and to be honest I didnt really have time for this. Today I finished my last exam and my summer semester starts in February, so I have some free time, which I decided to use to improve my Dota betting model, which involves creating or projecting lines.
Basically, I project the outcome of the number of kills, and since most of the time, the team with more kills wins, it gives me some quantitative information which I can use to find value in some of the bets. I also use some other information, I follow the Dota 2 competitive scene very closely so I believe I can share some informations that can help you with your bets. Let's see what recommendations I have for you today.
Bet #1: NATUS VINCERE vs TEAM LIQUID - NATUS VINCERE +1.5 @ 1.985 (1 unit)
Bet #2: NATUS VINCERE vs TEAM LIQUID - NATUS VINCERE ML @ 3.920 (0.5 unit)
My actual projected lines for this matchup is 23:23. My projected lines predict a very close game and I believe NaVi can step up and be a threat for Liquid in today's game. We havent seen a lot of Liquid games lately, the last time we saw them in Grand Finals vs Team Secret and they lost, very badly. In the competitive scene of Dota 2 we have 3 giants, the AAA teams, which are Team Secret, Team Liquid and Virtus Pro. Then we have the tier 1 teams, and among them is also NaVi. These are the teams that regularly qualify to LAN finals and are getting through the group stages, challenging for the final spots. Its not easy for them to beat the Big 3, but its not impossible.
NaVi has improved a lot. It was basically a dead team for the last year and a half, but since the start of this year's Dota season, with their new roster, they look like they're back, they have risen from ashes like a phoenix. They already played one game in this tournament, comfortably beating EG (TI winners from 2015) and they looked absolutely GREAT. Their young carry player on Faceless Void landed amazing Chronospheres, they had a good aggressive early game, they maintained pressure on the map, had the better vision and overall better teamfight coordination. They bested EG and won comfortably. They always played well, but there was mistakes here and there, some things that I saw, that were holding them back from truly achieving what they are capable of. But now, they look absolutely scary. If they can keep this up and play like this for the rest of the tournament, they could even win this!
Then we have Team Liquid. My projected lines are a bit cruel to them, they basically played Team Secret twice (6 games altogether, lost 5 of them) and VP recently, the hardest competition they could ask for, so that probably throws a bit of a bad shade on their recent results. They can still put smaller teams into their places and sweep them away easily. They also hold a very good record vs NaVi, losing only 1 competitive game (series, not counting Midas Mode) against them in the last 2 years.
Overall, I see a huge value with NaVi here. They should be absolutely able to snatch a game away from Liquid in a BO3 series, and I also give them 50% chance of beating Liquid. That means that the odds of around 3.9 represent huge value in my eyes.
BET #3: FNATIC vs VICI GAMING - FNATIC ML @ 2.646 (0.5 unit)
My projected lines are 22.5 vs 21.5 in favor of Fnatic. They recently changed their offlaner and Universe (previously on EG) joined their team. This is probably the only thing that is going against them. They kicked their previous player and replaced him with Universe, just after they qualified for another tournament. Community hated them for a while for this, but this shouldnt be an issue for a team with EternalEnvy. They looked very well recently, they got into the finals of Summit 8, they won some qualifiers and one-upped their game. They are probably the strongest team from SEA region, right now.
Then we have Vici Gaming. Very inconsistent team in my eyes. They looked amazing at Starladder 2 months ago, but since then they havent really showed similar results. Sure, they are keeping up with the rest of the Chinese scene in terms of results (bar Newbee maybe) but they havent convinced me with the way they play. I am also being a bit more confident with my projected lines for this matchup, as these teams played against teams that are on their level in terms of performance so I have numbers I can trust more in this regard, and even if I listen to my gut feeling, which I NEVER OR JUST RARELY DO, I still think that Fnatic should be able to win this game.
Quick word about the units: With my bankroll management, 1 unit is 1% of my total bankroll. You decide on your units, I just wrote how much of portion of my bankroll I bet on these games.
I also encourage everyone to do their own research before betting, and remember, only bet what you can afford to lose.
Thanks for reading, and good luck to all of us bettors :)
Have a great day/night, depend on your timezone :)
Great writeup! good luck : )
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