Statistical Bets 31 December

A pro racing tipster for 20 years, statistical betting is my PASSION. I have skills built up over decades. All the analysis I provide in my posts comes out of love, commitment, hard work and a genuine wish to see people profit from it. I'm posting a selection of my tips onto steemit so my admin can share them for free. I'm reluctant to share my website details but the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Don't forget: betting can be dangerous so only bet what you can afford. Good luck everybody.

Find today's racecards at the Racing Post.

Place your BTC bets here: (I haven't used this site - there's nothing in it for me to recommend it over others. There may be better sites. Let us know in the comments where you place your crypto horse racing bets.)

Keep Stakes low today

Limited choice

Doncaster was abandoned

So re-routed to Southwell

4 Races today



 
SOUTHWELL 12.15

5/2 Mr Carbonator, 7/2 Medici Oro,
7/1 Felisa, 8/1 Blue Havana, 9/1 Couldn't Could She,
10/1 Progressive Jazz, 10/1 Optimickstickhill,
12/1 Sunhill Lad, 20/1 Raven's Raft, Salire,
25/1 Jaffar, Thundercloud.

2yo Nursery over 8f

It is very unoriginal
But the 3 market leaders
Do seem to have an edge
But there is a twist in the tail

On last time out Racing Post Ratings
MR CARBONATOR did a 62
MEDICI ORO did a 64
FELISA did a 64

None of the other runners
Achieved a rating of more than 56
Juveniles can always improve a lot
But so can this three as well
Asking a lot for one to improve
Past all 3 of these higher scorers
They all have good draws as well
I think you can bet all 3 at prices

FELISA has a dodgy profile
If all similar Class 6 Nurseries
Fillies from 7f races
With 6 or more runs
Have a 0-26 record
They also have a poor 1-57 record
In November and December

Nurserys in December
Any Distance
Any Class
Since 2007
There are 249 of these races
Fillies absent over 36 days
Having 6 or more previous races
Return a 0-50 record
COULDN'T COULD SHE has this profile

MR CARBONATOR won last time
He mowed down MEDICI ORO late

MEDICI ORO has a great chance
I failed his profile last time out here
Ran a great race looked like bolting up
I think he got his fractions wrong
Every chance he puts that right here
But look at the horse in 3rd that day

BLUE HAVANA

I made him a negative last time
He was draw 13 of 13 and failed a draw stat
If you want to know why I like this horse
Watch his last race at Southwell
Was not very quicky away
But hampered right after the start
Switched from outisde to inside
That manoeuver lost lots of ground
You may or may not agree if you watch
That she ran a remarkable race
I want to bet them both

Progressive Jazz scares me
Didnt stay last time
Went off too fast
Too many positives not to include
I am playing it this way

Selection

£4.00 Win Bet BLUE HAVANA 8/1
 
£4.00 Win Bet PROGRESSIVE JAZZ 7/1

£2.00 Win Bet MEDICI ORO 4/1





SOUTHWELL 12.45

11/4 Crystal Deauville, 100/30 Magic Pulse,
7/2 Magic Applause, 13/2 Street Sensation,
8/1 A Few Good Men, 10/1 Argon, 12/1 Ideal Spirit,
16/1 Takeonefortheteam.

2yo Novice over 5f

MAGIC APPLAUSE is just about favourite
She is a filly absent 183 days

October November December
2yo Novices since 2007
Any distance
Any Class
There are 212 of these races
Fillies
Absent more than 6 weeks
Have a 0-61 record

MAGIC APPLAUSE fails this 0-61 angle
Theses stats can get bust at any time
But given this angle is over 3 months
And covers any distance and class
I feel we have to look for other options

STREET SENSATION has raced once
Hammered 12 lengths only 13 days ago
That could be asking far too much
 
October November December
2yo Novices since 2007
Any distance
Any Class
There are 212 of these races
Horses with 1 previous race
Beaten 12 or more lengths last time
Running in the last 24 days
Return a 0-89 record
STREET SENSATION shares this 0-89 record
Win lose of draw his profile is weak

If I ask for a horse with experience
Who has recent runs
A Racing Post Rating of 60 or more
Then we come down to just 2 horses
MAGIC PULSE who disappointed last time
From a sire without a Southwell winner
CRYSTAL DEAUVILLE who won last time

Winning means a penalty though
If I look at the 5 similar races run
I find you want 2 or more runs
A horsed beaten last time
But not by more than 10 lengths
That brings other horses into this
TAKEONEFORTHETEAM has 2 runs
So did 2 recent winners of similar races
   
The race is a mess
Any angles are conflicted
I am going to play it each way and saver
CRYSTAL DEAUVILLE is the saver
Representing the best recent form
TAKEONEFORTHETEAM the bet
Offering price and potential

Selection

Small Stakes

£3.50 Each Way TAKEONEFORTHETEAM 7/1

£3.00 Win Bet CRYSTAL DEAUVILLE 3/1






SOUTHWELL 2.25

3/1 Captain Lars, 4/1 Foolaad, 5/1 Piazon,
7/1 Brother Tiger, Crosse Fire, 9/1 Penny Dreadful,
9/1 Red Stripes, 14/1 Midnight Macchiato.

5f Handicap
Competetive little race
I can't rule too many out
MIDNIGHT MACCHIATO looks wrong
Not keen on him dropping from 7f
BROTHER TIGER is 8 absent 125 days
I couldn't risk him with that absence
FOOLAAD has 223 days off the track
As a 6yo and with topweight not for me

I can see only one interesting angle
Not sure if it will work out or not
Recent last time out Racing Post Ratings
Show 1 horse has a clear edge here

CAPTAIN LARS did an 87 rating last time
His rivals only managed the following
73 74 65 69 22 60
He has a 13lbs edge on those numbers
That advantage makes him my selection
I have no idea what the danger may be
But with 8 runners I will take him each way

Selection

CAPTAIN LARS 100/30

Each Way






SOUTHWELL 3.00

3/1 Satchville Flyer, Scotch Myst, 5/1 Declamation,
5/1 Dusty Bin, 7/1 Clergyman, Racing Angel,
20/1 Hugie Boy, 25/1 Gettin' Lucky,  

6f Classified Stakes race

SATCHVILLE FLYER is interesting
I have twice opposed him over 8f
I'm not even sure he stays 7 furlongs
I've been waiting for him to drop in trip

The problem is he drops 2 furlongs
That can sometimes be a big problem
Statistically I can't answer that queery
Just not enough similar races around

The horses I can not bet
DECLAMATION has raced once since July
I want more for a 7 year old
DUSTY BIN has had 186 days off
HUGIE BOY isn't scoring high enough
And with 4 runs in 2017 not convinced
CLERGYMAN has 261 days off
GETTING LUCKY is up in distance
Don't see him coping with some of these
RACING ANGEL is a mare from 5f
That puts me off her right away
So does poor recent numbers as well
And a trainer without a winner yet

Shortlist

SCOTCH MYST
SATCHVILLE FLYER

SATCHVILLE FLYER is my choice
He has placed in his last 2 races
Over a distance I didn't think he stayed
So giving him a chance back in trip

Option 1 was an each way bet
Option 2 was a win bet and saver
Satchville Flyer to win
Scotch Myst the saver
50-50 Call
I wanted to go e/w
But the fact he drops 2f
And 3 year olds score best
I decided to go win/saver

Selection

£7 Win Bet SATCHVILLE FLYER 4/1

£3 Win Bet SCOTCH MYST 5/2