"You don't factor that Biden has to win to do anything, and he is constantly being attacked from the right on the border and has to respond."
Yeah, see, this is where the Biden stans get a bit too clever for themselves, because this is actually just a reformulation of MY argument!
Biden has to win to do anything. Agreed.
He is constantly being attacked from the right. Agreed.
He has to respond. Hmmm.
So what you're saying is, the lobby that takes the initiative, that goes on the attack, that puts the politician in fear of his seat if he doesn't do what they want, THOSE are the people that the politician "has to respond" to?
What an interesting observation. Is the reason he "has to respond" to them because he needs their support, and if he can't secure it then he's out of power because they've made it clear that they need to be appeased or else they won't vote for him?
So then, humor me: if I have a lobby in favor of a policy position that I want Biden to adopt, and he is currently only getting attacked and pressured from the people opposed to my policy, what would you suggest I do?
- Do exactly what the opposing lobby is doing, since it's clear in your OWN WORDS that Biden is responsive to that threat.
- Tell Biden he's got my vote no matter what he does so he may as well just endlessly appease the opposing lobby because mine isn't gonna hurt him no matter what.
Gee wiz. I should not have to argue this much to establish something so simple as "Politicians follow incentives and ignore non-incentives."