Shit is going down, ya'll.

The value of Steem is spiking out of control in the face of the airdrop. I'm already feeling the sting of selling earlier today when the price was significantly lower than it is now.

People sure love airdrops.

No one should be buying right now, yet here we are. I guess the prospect of having both Steem and Hive coins with a single purchase is tempting. Although most of us realize the value of Steem is going to tank hard on Friday, and the value of Hive is very likely going to dump as well, but not nearly as much... especially since there will be no exchange to dump on right away.

Justin Sun is not getting an airdrop.

I'm pretty sure the Hive development team has Binance by the balls. @justinsunsteemit has transferred at least 3.6M coins to Binance, and they are going to make damn sure those tokens don't become Hive tokens.

The problem here is that if Justin knows he isn't going to get an airdrop, he's gonna dump those 3.6M-5M coins onto the market over the next 36 hours.

Even though Binance has over 5M liquid coins in the bank right now, withdrawals are still disabled. Why? What are they doing? Whatever it is, it isn't good.

At the same time, Jsun can't move his coins off of Binance, so if he wants to dump, he can only dump on Binance. This is creating a situation where once again Steem coins on Binance are worth less than those on other exchanges like Bittrex. Right now the difference in price between these 2 exchanges is 15%, with Steem trading at 20.8 cents on Binance and 24.1 cents on Bittrex. No arbitrage is available because withdrawals are disabled on Binance.

The difference in coin value is going to get a lot worse if Sun continues to dump Binance. In fact, if he feels forced to dump 3.6M coins in 36 hours, there could be a massive flash crash. Should we be placing lowball buy orders on Binance looking to pick up mega cheap Steem for the airdrop?

I'm considering it. I've already transferred my Bitcoin from Bittrex to Binance. The block that my money was on took 50 minutes to mine instead of 10... I was really sweating it like I did something wrong and lost all my money.

God I hate using Binance these days. However, the thought of potentially being able to scoop up over 100k coins before the airdrop is extremely tempting.

On the other hand, many view this money as "blood money". It has the stain of the ninjamine on it. What happens if the Hive devs simply airdrop 3.6M less coins to Binance and tell them to deal with it? In that case, perhaps the coins I bought cheap wouldn't even be airdropped Hive.

There's also the risk of the entire airdrop falling through because of how shady Binance has been this whole time. Personally I would like to not airdrop them. They are criminals, and they are still on Justin Sun's side even when their official claim is that he hacked them with a Steemit script to power up the coins of their clients. They are liars and thieves.

There are many good reasons to not buy coins on Binance right now, which is exactly why the difference in coin value is so large... in fact, I can see that gap growing in real time as I write this post. However, whales are constantly swooping in to close the gap because it is such a big discount.

I really don't know what I'm gonna do.

But I'm definitely considering putting in some crazy low buy orders. I'm talking 4 cent to 1 cent Steem. This airdrop mania is out of control, and a flash crash BEFORE the airdrop is almost guaranteed unless Justin knows for sure that he's going to receive Hive coins. Honestly I wonder how many coins he's sold already. I have to assume that the main reason there is a discount on Binance is due to him selling slowing into this buying pressure.

Stop buying Steem at these prices.

Seriously, we all know the combined market value of Hive and Steem is less than the prices being paid for coins at the moment. So many people are gonna get burned. Already up to 26 cents on Bittrex... 2 cents higher than when I started writing this... yikes.

Conclusion

Don't buy coins on Binance unless they are extremely discounted (sub 5 cents) and you're willing to accept the risk of buying ninjamine blood money. To everyone who thought it was an okay idea to allow Justin to dump 70M coins over the course of a couple years: this might be your chance to buy a 5M dump in the course of 36 hours. Shit's going to get real quite soon.