Hi guys,
Here's a quick update on the current market situation.
As of now, the trend is still bearish. And here's why:
We're currently under the 300MA, and having a hard time getitng back above it.
Las time this happened was in 2014 and was the beginning of a 18 month bear market.
Do I think history is going to repeat itself? Nope, and I'll tell you why further below.
As long as we are under the 200MA (currently 9,5K), the bears have the upper hand.
Therefore we need to play by the rules of a bear market: buy the obvious dips and sell quickly, instead of hodling for too long.
Note: this advice is only valid for traders. If you're a long term investor, current prices are amazingly cheap.
Also for the traders: watch the 200MA (hourly), when we break and stabilize above it, it usually starts a few days of uptrend, but if we break down and stay below it, we're usually going down for a while.
I personally feel like there's a big chance we go below 6k before a real reversal. I might be wrong, but here's why I feel that way:
We broke below the yearly support line which was around 6,9K, so our last chance at a reversal is a clear support above 6k to make a double bottom.
You can see the bearish downtrend with this upper yellow line, if we can break past if and stay above it, this is also a great sign.
But so far we haven't managed to do so, so I'm still bearish in the short term.
Also, if some of you have studied Elliot Waves, you'll know that the typical corrective pattern is made of three waves: A, B and C.
My initial interpretation was that the bottom of wave C was at 6K, but now I'm starting to think it might have only been the bottom of wave A (see charts 2 & 3).
I've also heard many experts in the field calling for one last bottom before the reversal, but really, the truth is that only a very few and wealthy people know where things are going.
Prices have never been so manipulated, look at the difference in volatility compared to October, even though BTC was at the same price.
The other reason I think we're going lower, is because I don't see any strong volume kicking it, and looking back at every previous crashes, the bottom was always a quick panick with a quick rebound.
We got that at 6k, but now we're back around the same levels going sideways, which makes me think we're going lower.
I also think we haven't yet experienced that phase of complete despair in the market, which is part of the natural cycle.
The point of this post is not to create fear or predict what's about to happen, but just let you know that IF we go lower, it's not a reason to panick.
If you have fiat sitting on the side, you can place orders between 4k and 6k, just in case you get the best opportunity of the year.
So why am I confident that the price will be much higher by the end of the year?
Because the fundamentals are really solid at the moment.
We keep getting positive news, such as:
Coinbase Custody signing up their first institutional client.
Negotations for a BTC ETF are underway.
Soros fund management getting ready to invest in crypto.
This tweet (last photo) explaining that big crypto wallets (whales/smart money) are buying more and more, while small wallets (plankton/dumb money) are selling more and more in 2018.
Many solid projects keeping up with their promises and really coming up with amazing technology.
And the upcoming Consensus 2018, on which I made a whole post last week.
BIG money is coming into the market, the technology is improving day by day, and most experts are bullish on BTC long term.
Let me know what you think in the comments below, are we done correcting or are we going to see one last crash before the reversal?
Or have you completely given up and don't believe it will go back up?
Share your thoughts with us <3