caution about the rise

in bitcoin •  6 years ago 

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Good morning! The bounds of what trading took place yesterday were almost exactly what I expected. We stayed within the $6450 +/- $100 range, approximately, as I predicted the day before. However! How it did its thing was not how I expected. I thought there might be a slow rise and then drop like has happened many times. Instead, we saw a massive upswing, probably a whale and then a slide.

While others are calling this a natural rise, I debate that. The August 19th rise, as you can see, was rather sudden. When this has happened before, it's almost always fallen in the past month back down again. We have already slid, but if there's a sudden sell off, it could drop as low as $6100, If there's a massive whale tail slap, we could drop more.

I am becoming less convinced of $5k by the end of the month. I think at this point, barring some major news, we are going to see some stability until September when we will start seeing a long term rise, at least through January. Then probably a fall and slide until later spring.

All of that is subject to the whims of whales. Their tail slaps shatter all our little boats if we swim too close. So be cautious!

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5k is coming as I posted days ago

I've been pretty convinced of $5k for a while: I've been saying that for a couple weeks now. That was based on the past performance of BTC in August, but...the trend down seems to have stalled. It's more see-saw up and down than a complete downward trend. I'm not as convinced as I was.

if you do EW you will see you're convinced

Thanx, that's an interesting analysis.

There are patterns. People can watch and exploit them. I actually wrote some bots to do just that. However, there are patterns overlain atop of the exploitable ones. Those are often the acts of manipulators and/or whales. They are more dangerous than anything for the little guy and ought to be watched for.

A bot. I've been hearing about them. Can you show me/us how it works?

Software bots are merely programs that follow certain rules (for most of them). Some very advanced ones use machine learning to have studied the market and then make their trades.

There are sophisticated ones (no ML) you can buy on the app stores.

There are ones that are, like mine, very simple that follow certain rules and if the situation doesn't fit those rules for a prolonged period, it calls for help (sends me an email or buzzes my phone).

The simpler ones often make about a percent per week for increase in BTC, but the more advanced ones can potentially do a lot better. Note: said increase in BTC. If BTC falls more than a percent in a week, yes, you'll have more BTC, but the total value of what you have in USD is less. There are some ways to tell the bot to sell and then buy on the dip, etc. The problem is you need to know what rules you want to codify into the bot before beginning.

There is some luck just like anything that is at least semi gambling like the markets are. However, there is some danger with bots in that if you codify in a set of rules that you have not thought through, it can screw up and trade away what you had all while you are sleeping.

So be careful.

FWIW, there are several people that can code bots for you. I'd suggest looking into well reviewed ones first though.

Thanks brother. Very good answer.

Short version.

Bots are simply programs that do trades for you. They follow the rules you set up for them. Experiment with the bots and expect losses until you figure out what rules work best for you.

Check out the ones available in the app stores or the well reviewed bots. Don't use ones shady corners. They will likely steal your coins.

When you have some experience, you can commission to create a bot for you. It won't be cheap, but it could be worth it depending on what you want done.

Don't EVER give a bot complete control of your crypto. It can lose it all if the rules you gave it are bad. Remember, computers are really fast idiots.

Thanks for upvoting my post. I will follow.

Followed now as well.

Thank you, enjoy your day.