Bitcoin gives back the $10 000 mark ... Time to get long?

in bitcoin •  7 years ago  (edited)

Bitcoin finished Thursday down more than 10%, giving back the key $10000 level for the first time and continuing lower today in Asian trade.

The market is really struggling to catch a break at the moment; with scams, FUD and fuckery littering the headlines at every noisy turn. On the bright side, if you are bullish longer term, longs are really starting to make sense from a risk:reward perspective and I am keeping an eye out for a valid entry/considering a fade. I was planning on pulling the trigger earlier today, but by the time I'd finished the tasks at hand, the buy signal I was looking at on the 4 hour chart had been invalidated and she was on her way down again.

Pair is currently testing below rising trend-line support around 8800, with sellers targeting the Falling Wedge bottom at 8400:

28 day volume peaked in late December and has been declining ever since, so though this move has been long and painful, the end may well be in sight. Margin lending rates at Bitfinex have been incredibly depressed over the past few weeks, with USD yielding barely a third of the historical average. There was a slight pick up in those markets this morning, and that bolsters the case for an impending bottom - this is one of the few truly forward looking indicators around - Bitcoin can't rally without people going long and people can't go long without borrowing US Dollars.

Though I'd like to buy into the wedge floor, I'm prepared to act before then on a valid signal and seriously considering pre-empting any reversal with a lightly levered fade - we've all seen how fast this beast moves when it does finally catch a bid. I'm usually not one for picking bottoms, but long term I'm extremely bullish Bitcoin and crypto; and the declining volume, pick up in lending markets and Falling Wedge formation are all very interesting.

I'm off to muse on that for a little while and will update this post with my entry if/when I pull the trigger. If you want to read more about trading and what's required of a successful trader, I'd highly recommend following my friend and colleague @forexbrokr and checking out his latest blog post on process and high probability set ups.

Update: Pair has bounced from the Wedge floor at 8400 - have entered long at 8625

Authors get paid when people like you upvote their post.
If you enjoyed what you read here, create your account today and start earning FREE STEEM!
Sort Order:  

Like people are saying - it's just not for the faint of heart. If someone can't grasp the notion that you need to "buy low sell high" then I don't know how to help them.

Well said. Like you, I'm very bullish in the long term and I'm still waiting for the right signal to pour in my fiat. However, this dip is very mind shattering for those people who impulsively invested in because of the recent hype. I bet there are a lot of people put in their money without even researching about cryptos. And these are also the people who have lost faith and is losing faith because of this "crash". They are now scrambling to sell thinking that they will lose more if they hold on. Though I pity them, I guess one man's loss is another man's fortune.

That makes a lot of sense. The media always reports on bitcoin so sensationally. When it goes up in value they all talk about the millionaires, and when it goes down they act like we are all doomed. Not sure if it's because the media doesn't want altcoins to do well or if it is because they genuinely just don't know what the heck they are doing. I do also pity the people who only hear these stories and go in guns blazing, only to panic sell. On the other hand, it does reward those of us who do research.

Exactly! My theory in this is that the mass media spreads FUD because they are controlled by the government and central bank. As you know, most (if not all) cryptocurrencies are decentralized. Meaning, no one control these coins. And what do banks and government want? That is to control everything. Creating a system which cannot be controlled by the banks or governments and is FREE create conflicts with these organizations. Banks and government want a piece of commission from everything (in the form of taxes and fees). That is one reason why I think that media spreads FUD. FUD confuses the people so that they stop using cryptocurrencies and return to using banks so that they keep a portion of your wealth. Another reason I am thinking of is that this is for the benefit of the few. What I mean by that is those in higher position in banks and governments also invest in cryptocurrencies. What I think they do is they spread FUD so that the value of cryptos will fall, then they buy. After some time, the value will go up, and then they sell. The cycle will repeat and just use your imagination how much money they make by doing this scheme. So I wish people don't immediately believe in FUD, do their own research, make their stand firm, and eventually they will earn what is due to them.

8200 as I speak...if it closes today under 9000 the bull run is over...

Bitcoin will bounce back
It's apparently, a good time to buy

Upvoted ☝ Have a great day!

Gut wrenching but again cryptos weren’t made for the faint of heart. I see a season of weeding. The garden will look better this spring.

We need muppets - who would buy our SBD without muppets? Who would sell me Bitcoin at the lows if there were no muppets?

Is this the bitter end for Bitcoin? For cryptos? Well, no, probably not. Get your head screwed on right and you’ll see that (for better or worse) many coins have seen unprecedented growth in the last six months to a year, even with Bitcoin’s price halved from holiday highs closer to $20,000.
(: Follow : @thecryptobetter :) screen-shot-2018-02-01-at-1-40-49-pm.png

This is another thing that gets me about the people who just freak out and sell. It's like...you know bitcoin just had absurd growth recently right? It's not at all strange for the market to correct. It would be strange if bitcoin continued exponential growth!

very good your prospre...congratulationcongratulation. i'am new in steemit do you help me...?... i want to be work with you

I feel like I'm going to keep falling, because there's so much bad news lately.
Very trouble~

  ·  7 years ago (edited)

Take a look at @forexbrokr's latest blog post - good traders filter out the noise and focus on process. If I go long here, my risk is approximately $5000 against the 78.6, my potential reward against the highs is $11 000 :)

ok~thank you

Hey @timozhang, happy to help if you want to chat. See you around!

I really enjoy talking. ha ha

It definitely looks like the crash could last longer but then again there is no way to tell. There could be a huge turn around any week now.

Looks like we may have a long steady rise that will take time to get as high as 30000.

OMG.. thx for your posts.

nice explanation, this morning I checked the coinmarketcap website and reveals that most cryptos are going down. can you watch the video on my blog and tell me what you think? thanks in advance

When breaking B because it is strong support and if the model fails the price rebounds from them.
Bottom line:
Price control on the 4-hour friday ..
Simply (the highest price support buy buy-down download down the support selling the decoction)
and do all this on the friday only 4 hours
Top support = buy
bottom support = sell
If price break The last support will be downloaded to the 6000
7000
areas in case the price will go back to 13000

bitcoin will go to the moon soon.

as of this comment BTC seems to have hit a resistance between 8400-8500... if ti falls through it's going to drop at least another 10-12%. My guess is that it continues to drop. There hasn't been any positive news in the longest time and until that changes BTC is going to trend down.

Interesting, though considering you are mixing up support and resistance - I'll stick with my own professional view :P

It's possible. It's almost 2am :) I'm just a nerd with 8 GPUs mining things :D

Resistance is an upper bound that caps price, support a lower bound that (sorry for the brain dead lack of creativity lol) supports it. So the 8400-500 zone you were talking about was support and if broken and respected, would then become resistance :)

Buy the dips and long term HODL, accumulate now before they run out! :)
Screen Shot 2018-01-29 at 7.54.52 PM.png

Thank you for the recommendation, mate. Appreciated.

There’s certainly a nice confluence of support down here. Worth buying if like you said before, you still believe in crypto.

Agreed, I'm starting to increase my long positions too.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@sunstellar/don-t-panic-bear-market-almost-over

According to the firm Autonomous Next, the number of hedge funds investing in digital assets like Bitcoin has grown rapidly to more than 100. Since the launch of Bitcoin Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in December 2017, it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone why the price of Bitcoin is down 50% from the high.

bitcoin.PNG

Only Retail Investors chase price and buy high and sell low, while the Professionals buy low and sell high. The Hedge Funds have purposely sold Bitcoin futures to get in a better price.

At the moment, there is a war taking place between the buyers (Hedge Funds) and the sellers (Retail Investors) called capitulation. That line in the sand was at $9000. Capitulation is when investors give up any previous gains, by selling, in an effort to get out of the market. Capitulations are outcomes that result from the maximum psychological and financial pain that can be endured by a group before throwing in the towel. The Retail Investors are throwing in the towel after seeing a more than 50% correction in the Bitcoin price to the buyers, the Hedge Funds. With 100s of millions of dollars to invest, we are witnessing an accumulation phase by the Hedge Funds between $6000 and $9000.

The Hedge Funds are loading up and buying from the Retail Investors. But to fill all their buy orders, as the sell orders dry up, price must go down to the next stack of sell orders. We are approaching what I believe will be the bottom of bitcoin at $6000. My first target is $12,000 and my second target is $17,000 over the next 3 - 9 months.

The easy money has been made over the last 12-18 months. With the big boys in the game now, the rules have changes. The question is, are you ready to play to win with a new play book?

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor. Do your own research before making investment decisions. By reading this post, you acknowledge and accept full responsibility of any gains or losses.

bitcoin.PNG