Someone who saw Bihu reprinted "Why Invest in Blockchain". At the time of writing this article, Bitcoin is 245 dollars; today, 7,880 dollars, 32 times. I wrote this article for 15 years, and I haven't written it since.
Why not write it? Seriously, don’t write, because it’s not good for you. Others won’t give you a penny if they make money. If they lose, they will scold you and make trouble for you. Therefore, when the Ethereum ICO was held in the summer of 2014, although it was extremely optimistic, there was no public support and publicity, and it was enough to participate silently. But because he was so optimistic, he couldn't hold back, and encouraged some friends around to participate in the Ethereum ICO.
I know this is wrong. The first attribute of the blockchain is consensus, which is community. So, the purpose of writing this article today:
A) Recharge faith to help the friends of Bihu to spend the winter more at ease;
B) Spy on the future one or two.
Speaking of winter, various data show that there is a high probability that the coldest winter has not yet arrived. The real bottom is usually not crowded with people shouting at the bottom; the bottom is usually very deserted. This is historical experience, not necessarily applicable to the future. For true long-term investors, when the bottom is actually not that important. The important thing is to look for those certain futures. For investment, as long as one or two points of certainty are grasped, it is enough.
Let me start with the conclusion:
Within 4 years, the total market value of encrypted assets is approaching or surpassing that of gold. The current total market value of gold is US$8 trillion.
Within 4 years, the total market value of a certain smart contract platform has surpassed the world's highest listed company, and it is currently Apple with US$938.2 billion. That is, the total market value of the basic token of a single smart contract platform exceeds $1 trillion.
Within 8 years, super applications based on blockchain have appeared, and the market value of a single project has exceeded 1 trillion US dollars.
Why is it 4 years and 8 years? From the historical data of Bitcoin, the longest period is 48 months. From December 2013 to December 2017, the longest period between the two peaks is 4 years. The past 4 peaks occurred in June 2011 (30 US dollars), April 2013 (266 US dollars), December 2013 (1243 US dollars), and December 2017 (19188 US dollars). The average period is 26 months. .
Seven months have passed since the last wave crest. From now on, there will be at least one wave crest in 4 years, and it is very likely that there will be two wave crests. In 8 years, there is a high probability of going through 3-4 cycles. Bitcoin's output is halved every 4 years. The Olympic Games and World Cup are held every 4 years. Leap years are also held every 4 years. Is it a coincidence? If you adjust your time scale to 4 years instead of 4 days, then you will be able to participate in the blockchain business more calmly. 4 years is not long, it is just a college undergraduate.
Conclusion one
Let me start with the first conclusion: within 4 years, the total market value of encrypted assets is approaching or surpassing that of gold. The current total market value of gold is US$8 trillion. From June 2011 to December 2017, for a total of 78 months, the geometric average monthly increase of Bitcoin price was 8.64%. If we calculate the future based on the historical increase, it will be about 53 times in the next 4 years. Today Bitcoin The total circulating market value of is 140 billion U.S. dollars, 140 billion * 53 = 7,420 billion, which is 7.42 trillion U.S. dollars.
Considering that the market value of Bitcoin in the overall digital currency has been declining, from more than 95% in 2011 to 52% today (including the market value of BCH), from a large time span, Bitcoin still accounts for the market value of the overall encrypted assets. Will continue to decline. Assuming that it will be 30% in 4 years, the estimated market value of the total digital assets is 7.42 trillion / 0.3 = 24.7 trillion US dollars. This number may be too optimistic, because the premise is that encrypted assets will continue to grow exponentially in the past 4 years.
Let us look at the figure of US$24.7 trillion from other dimensions. At present, the USD M2 is 14.1 trillion US dollars. In 2017, the total market value of global listed company stocks was 79.2 trillion US dollars. In 2016, the global real estate market total market value was 217 trillion US dollars.
So far, 30 million people who have held crypto assets are a good guess, according to coinbase data. As of December 2017, the global population is 7.63 billion, Internet users are 4.16 billion, the penetration rate of encrypted assets among Internet users is 0.7%, and the global population penetration rate is 0.4%. We are still in the stage of innovators, early adopters The threshold for the stage is 2.5%. Today http://coinmarketcap.com shows that the total market value of encrypted assets is 287.1 billion US dollars, which is 86 times the gap from 24.7 trillion US dollars.
0.7%*86 = 60.2%, that is, to reach 24.7 trillion US dollars, it will take the late majority stage, and it may not be enough, because our total market value of encrypted assets today already contains a lot of future growth expectations. It can be said that most of the forecasts are for future growth. I don't think the penetration rate of Internet users can reach 50% in 4 years. Therefore, the figure of US$24.7 trillion is too optimistic. Similarly, the market value of Bitcoin reaches 7.42 trillion U.S. dollars in 4 years. This calculation is also too optimistic.
A 30% discount to the figure of 24.7 trillion, US$7.4 trillion, will be closer to reality, which is almost the total market value of gold at present. Let's calculate again, 7.4 trillion / 287.1 billion = 25.8 times, 0.7%*25.8 = 18.06%, which is between the early adopters and the early majority. Considering that the current valuation already contains a lot of future growth expectations Most of the early stages are reasonable predictions. This looks more reliable.
Therefore, conclusion 1: Within 4 years, the total market value of encrypted assets is approaching or exceeding that of gold. I think the credibility of this conclusion is 90%.
Conclusion two
Let me talk about the second conclusion: in 4 years, the total market value of the basic token of a single smart contract platform has exceeded 1 trillion US dollars. This conclusion is only a general explanation.
Currently, Ethereum is the largest smart contract platform, accounting for 16.1% of the total market value of encrypted assets. Assuming that this ratio remains constant, then according to conclusion 1, 7.4 trillion * 16.1% = 1.1914 trillion, which is about 1.2 trillion US dollars. Please note that I did not say that Ethereum has a market value of 1.2 trillion US dollars in 4 years, so please do not confuse it.
The ultra-large-scale smart contract platform is one of the holy grails we are looking for. The most important problem to be solved by the current smart contract platform is the problem of scale and capacity, the most important and urgent, there is no one. Scale and capacity, translated into technical language, are scalability and throughput. Large capacity means cheap use, and cheap use will bring about an explosion of applications. 4G mobile phone traffic has become cheaper, and short video applications similar to Douyin have become popular. Prior to this, applications such as graphics, e-commerce, and taxis were mainly used.
Analogous to the current smart contract platform, now it can only process text, so it can only be used for applications such as e-mail, such as pass transfer, etc., at most, it can also build an ethernet cat.
The current smart contract platform is a bit similar to the early service hosting. 20 websites are all set up on the same server, sharing resources such as computing, storage, and bandwidth. When a website's traffic breaks out, it will seriously affect other websites. Provide services normally. The method used by Ethereum to allocate resources is “the higher the price”; the method of EOS is to sell ownership to ensure the lowest usage share. When others are idle, they can use more resources beyond the lowest share.
Then, the competition between smart contract platforms, in the foreseeable future, is mainly the competition of capacity and scale, which provides a very clear indicator for us to find the Holy Grail. Although there are some other competitive indicators, the capacity and scale are overwhelming.
In the future, the smart contract platform will develop towards the current form of service hosting-virtualization and cloud, such as the VPS currently used. In the future, as the smart contract platform matures, when the communication between shards/sidechains is fast enough, good enough, and cheap enough, then DApps will tend to use a shard/sidechain alone instead of sharing calculations with other DApps , Storage, bandwidth resources, very similar to our current VPS.
Note that the smart contract platform mentioned here includes decentralized storage, because in the future, mainstream smart contract platforms will provide decentralized storage services. This is a basic service, so there is no need to repeat it.
Kyle Samani believes that the network effects of smart contract platforms are not as strong as operating systems, or even without network effects, because they are not locked to end users, but more like programming languages. I tend to agree with this view, but not as absolute as he is. After all, it is indeed very convenient for the exchange to list ERC20 tokens. Other infrastructures can also be shared, so there is still a network effect.
In addition, the communication efficiency and cost between shards/side chains in the same system will be better than cross-system cross-chain communication. If this assumption holds, then the collaboration between DApps in the same system will be more convenient. This is a bit like a city, and the bigger the city, the easier it is to facilitate internal collaboration. Cities have network effects. Its network effect index is 1.15. The output of the city is proportional to the population ^1.15. Refer to Wan Weigang's "Elite Day Class" No. 128.
In addition, Kyle himself agrees that one or some smart contract platforms will become so commonly used and useful that people will use their basic tokens as a universal storage medium. The universal store of value is the holy grail that Kyle believes. I totally agree with this view. The demand for store of value in today's human society should be valued at tens of trillions of dollars. However, considering that the network effect of the store of value is not the strongest, there will be a variety of universal mediums for store of value in the future.
Based on the analysis of the above two paragraphs, combined with the results of the 1.2 trillion US dollars of historical data we obtained at the beginning, I think the "conclusion 2" is tenable: within 4 years, the basic communication of a single smart contract platform The total market value of the certificate exceeds 1 trillion US dollars. The credibility of this conclusion can be scored 70 points.
