It’s been 2 months since the last plunge of cryptocurrency price, also the BTC price still stable in $6000-$7000 for about a month, and what will that make a change to the market if this keeps going on?
1. The approval probability of BTC ETF may skyrocket
The bad news is that the BTC ETF still not breakthrough the SEC line in this plunge period. However, in August and September, there are plenty of “BTC ETF must be approved!”, “10 reasons you should know about why SEC need to approve the BTC ETF!” and other these familiar articles show on every media web page.
The fact is that SEC will never approve the BTC ETF until BTC has changed, and they have a simple reason for explaining — “BTC price is not stable.” Easy words but powerful.
And the only reason they did this is that profit. For example, some exchanges publicized the good news to stimulate people to consume, and exchanges can get more profit (Binance exchange can profit $300 million in half year.)
Here is a question, what if the bitcoin can keep its price in this interval for 6 months, or even less price interval, then does the SEC approve the ETF? The answer is yes. But it just can rise the approval probability of 10%, and they will keep rejecting the ETF until they believe the Bitcoin is stable enough to not make the price skyrocket or plunge.
So now the only way to make the market lively again is that make Bitcoin currency more stable, which to be a currency can be trading in the real market, but not just a hype tool.
2. Bitcoin and stable cryptocurrencies
Since it comes to stable currency, then I have to mention the most recent star coin — GUSD. As a stable cryptocurrency approved by the US government, Tether coin received a huge impact once again. But that is not much terrible, because GUSD also has great flaws.
And the flaw is that government centralization. GUSD is endorsed by the US government, which is equivalent to the USD. This characteristic has a great conflict with the USDT. Although both are centralized stable coins, the difference can be enormous.
First, the centralization of the USDT is endorsed by the trust of private companies, while the GUSD is the US government. That’s right, although both are centralized, and it seems that GUSD is more reliable, they all contradict Nakamoto’s vision of cryptocurrency, and it seems that GUSD violates a bit more. After all, Nakamoto is Anti-government.
Secondly, USDT has taken advantage of time. Because it is the first stable currency, it has been widely spread. Most exchanges have been traded with USDT, and its holdings also account for a large proportion. It is very difficult to make new changes unless major changes are encountered.
Finally, let’s go back to the topic. If Bitcoin becomes a stable currency like USDT, then the first stable decentralized coin will soon be born. However, there seems to be some conflict between decentralization and stability. Coupled with the high price of Bitcoin, it is very difficult to become a stable currency that people can use, and its own gold attribute proves that Bitcoin is not suitable for being a stable currency.
So, the stable bitcoin price in now stage is just nothing. If people trust it, then it rises, and what if they don’t? The possibility of decentralized utopia built by Satoshi Nakamoto is too low.
3. SUM
Recently, plenty of countries have also begun to take action. From Venezuela’s use of Petro coins to control inflation, to the Chinese government’s own R&D centralized blockchain (which should be called a distributed network) to control public opinion, and then to the US to issue GUSD against USDT. everything is explained that people are full of confidence in cryptocurrencies and blockchains just like the Internet of the year.
But is the cryptocurrency and blockchain be the product of the next stage? It remains to be discussed. In my opinion, IoT will be the product of the next stage. The world always wants to develop faster, regardless of the actual but develop faster, human greed is more and more difficult to meet, nobody knows that the next one who is standing on the money. Everyone just wants to be that one.
From the perspective of the anti-governmentist of Satoshi Nakamoto, if cryptocurrency is to play its true role. At least it can be achieved by waiting for the unification of the world, such as the “classification of currencies by industry”. The country will become the biggest competitor of cryptocurrency. This is why Nakamoto is reluctant to issue cryptocurrencies too early.
What do you think?