What is the concept of $1.4 billion?
The world's tallest building, Burj Khalifa, cost a total of $1.5 billion.
Recently, according to Cryptoslate, a 51% attack on the Bitcoin network will cost $1.4 billion.
The article analysis pointed out that the attack on Bitcoin requires 2.4 million of the most advanced ASIC mining machines. Accommodating these mines requires approximately $250 million in infrastructure, including buildings, ventilation and other construction costs.
Running these mines will consume approximately 29.3 billion kWh of electricity per year, roughly the same amount of electricity as the entire Moroccan country.
People can't help wondering how this account was calculated.
How to launch a 51% attack on Bitcoin
The first is fixed costs (in fact, buying a mining machine).
The Cryptoslate article selected two mainstream miners - the S9i and the T15. To control more than 50% of the bitcoin network, an attacker needs at least the same number of ASICs in circulation.
Combined with the recent average hash of the Bitcoin network, if you choose S9i, the cost of buying a mining machine is about $820 million; if you choose T15, the corresponding spending is about $1.48 billion.
In terms of variable costs, it is mainly power consumption, in addition to labour and machine maintenance.
According to the daily electricity consumption of the above two mining machines, the total average annual electricity consumption is 29.3 billion kWh, which is almost equivalent to the electricity consumption of Morocco for one year.
Then the question is coming, how long does it take to fight this time?
Based on the recent BCH hard fork war, launching a 51% attack may require at least 10 days of continuous mining. According to the above fixed cost and daily average variable cost, the final calculated results are as follows:
- If the S9i mining machine is used to launch a 51% attack, the total cost of buying a miner + mining for 10 days is about $1.003 billion.
- If a T51 is used to launch a 51% attack, the total cost of buying a miner + mining for 10 days is approximately $1,830 million.
Therefore, the average attack cost of the two is about $1.416 billion.
What does this mean for Bitcoin?
Obviously, it is almost impossible to attack the Bitcoin network with a cost of up to $1.4 billion, because no one is willing to spend so much manpower and material resources to plan.
The Cryptoslate article points out that even with this possibility, a similar attack would make almost any trophy worthless because (people) confidence in the Bitcoin network would be destroyed.
However, it is not excluded that the Bitcoin network will be attacked by some cartels (monopoly interest organizations). For example, some governments have adopted nationalized methods to acquire so-called mining facilities.
Even if all possible situations are taken into account, the cost of completely destroying the Bitcoin network is also astronomical. As far as the current situation is concerned, the clever combination of cryptography and economic incentives makes Bitcoin an extremely secure network, and the potential value and attractiveness of Bitcoin as a value storage and commercial means remain. (Refer to Shallot blockchain)