@haejin can you address the potential H&S fractal?
RE: Bitcoin (BTC) Evening: When is the Best Time to Buy?
You are viewing a single comment's thread from:
Bitcoin (BTC) Evening: When is the Best Time to Buy?
Authors get paid when people like you upvote their post.
If you enjoyed what you read here, create your account today and start earning FREE STEEM!
If you enjoyed what you read here, create your account today and start earning FREE STEEM!
As I said; H&S
Regarding volume:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_top_reversal
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
I'm with u. It's playing out pretty too well, haha.. BUT altcoins are showing some freaking BULLISH actions so BTC might just dip little bit down and after that explode way past bigger LS.
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
Update; there went the right shoulder possibility! We going UP soon!
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
I was thinking that's no longer relevant after we dropped straight past the right shoulder ?
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
This is where we sit at time of writing:
I added some more annotations to try and explain the patterns and calculations better.
I am looking for a bounce either here (at ~12k), or as @haejin points out, ~11k where there is more historical support.
Once that happens, I'd be looking for decreasing volume with increasing price to ~17k. Then increasing volume as price starts to decline again. If this happens, we are going to 6 - 7k where there is historical support.
If this plays out, the right shoulder will be known as a "dead cat bounce", and this will become a major correction.
I'm not sure how likely all of this is, but with the increase in dumb money and the added ability for wall st to short, this is starting to look more and more like a probability than a possibility.
Im looking forward to Haejin's take on this.
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
A wider view of why 6-7k:
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
Oh ! So you mean the right shoulder is yet to come ? Whoa yeah I'm all for it :))
We just have to be aware, and waiting for it... haejin was not the only one to predict 11k, I read another analysis coming to the same conclusion for general symmetry reasons rather than h-a-s. You gotta be cool on Wall Street¸¸.•¨•♫♪ ;))
TY for making me aware.
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
Yes, exactly.
Haejin mentioned the potential for the smaller H&S (the one in yellow above) yesterday, and as soon as he said that, it become clear to me there was a bigger H&S (the one in green above), which is a fractal, potentially in play.
It's always better to be prepared with potential outcomes than to have them sprung on you without knowing how to react.
Good luck!
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
I have trouble identifying these structures because my screen is so tiny, it all looks rather blocky... I'm now running two browsers so i can use two tradingview accounts, one with a 15 minute and one with a daily/4h hour scale, that works way better than switching time scale all the time... still, the HS scenario seems to be less likely now because of the lack of volume in the center - so maybe we can relax... keep up the good work, we'll soon have a team of experts ;))
Here's a simple Fibonacci application, and it shows that the deepest dip (at Kraken) went right to the .0618, which makes it a perfect moderate retracement so far.
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
Although @haejin may be correct that this wont end up forming a H&S, I believe he was incorrect about the H&S volume:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_top_reversal
This is with the caveat that Haejin has much more experience than I do, so he may disagree with this assessment. I guess only time will tell, but it's good to have it in our bag if we need it.
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
Shorting is not yet available on the futures contracts
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
I thought it was, but only with significant margin: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/interactive-brokers-says-its-will-now-accept-bets-that-bitcoin-will-tumble-2017-12-13
If you have different info I'd love to see it.
Either way, as @haejin pointed out, it's somewhat irrelevant because these things often become post hoc justifications for price.
I think it's worth understanding the implication of shorting in the market though, since in the past, it was a very one sided market.
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
Also: https://www.ft.com/content/a72a61dc-e6f2-11e7-8b99-0191e45377ec
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
H&S is a pattern that should only be watched for once it's almost complete. ( in forming)
From what I read you shouldn't try to predict it....just maybe be aware of it once it's almost complete.
And never ever make decisions based on it until it has broken the neck line.
I'm still new to TA....but that is what written everywhere about H&S.
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
Any "forward discernment" you do alleviates fomo or fud. I would say it's wise to identify as many potential patterns so that you can adapt your strategy once more data becomes available.
I first mentioned this larger H&S yesterday when Haejin identified the potential for the smaller H&S. Once we had confirmation that the smaller H&S broke down, this larger H&S became more probable. (See my comments here on a previous post of haejin's)
And now that it has bounced from the smaller H&S retracement projection -- which also happens to be the neckline for the larger H&S -- I think it becomes even more probable.
I will be keeping a close eye on volume as price approaches 16k-17k. If there is a decrease in volume as price goes higher, that is another signal that we could be in for a rough ride.
With that said, nothing is 100%, and when more data becomes available, we will get a clearer picture of the possibilities and probabilities.
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
Thanks for your input. I agree 100% with that.
All we can do is keep a close eye on the right shoulder. If it hits the peak and then starts going down again it becomes the most probable outcome, right? After it breaks the neckline it's time to get out of the market and be ready to get back in @ 6-7K?
What's your opinion on altcoins? There is no way you can make profit on alts while BTC is going down? Maybe there is a way to make more BTC out of altcoins trading...but fiat profit is going down no matter what...right?
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit
The way I understand h&s is that we should see an increase in volume when declining from the right shoulder. That would be a warning sign this is a legitimate h&s.
In @haejin's latest video he said the volume was not indicitive of a h&s, but according to http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_top_reversal it's exactly what you should expect.
Again, @haejin has way more experience than I do, so sometimes "intuition" plays a role in TA. He's been quite good with that in the past.
Downvoting a post can decrease pending rewards and make it less visible. Common reasons:
Submit