Bitcoin Chart Analysis - 12/19/2017

** Within an hour of writing this, I saw the latest news about Segwit2X being revived. This is a short-term fundamental event which can override normal chart behavior and drive bitcoin higher. See the post here: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@crypto-investor/b2x-fork-bitcoin-segwit-2x-revived **

This analysis is more of a short-term projection in price. If you're holding for 6 months, this analysis is kind of irrellevant unless you want to try to play off the volatile price swings we have seen in cryptocurrency.

Beginning from the decline at 8k down to 6k, we began a rally which has had 3 phases, nearing 20k in value. Upon seeing these three phases and acknowledging that the CME group news event is behind us with bitcoin, we may very well wonder if bitcoin is not now ready for a decline.

According to how bitcoin often works in charting, we could expect a decline to 13k for Bitcoin at this juncture. This is the bottom of the 2nd phase of the rally. If the decline had bad news events associated with it, or wanted to be really steep, 10k is also possible. At such a decline, I would expect a stabilized market with eventually a continued rally to retest the highs and break them.

People who closely watch the charts should be able to confirm a double-top on this rally before the decline to 13k would finalize. If we broke to new all-time highs instead of making a double-top then this prediction is incorrect. This sort of chart has a good risk-reward ratio, meaning if someone goes into cash when the second top forms, they could rebuy the market at 19,500 BTC/USD if they were wrong, but they could save on the downside to 13k.

For the major alt-coin I am holding which is STEEM, I am going to wait for the double top in BTC because the later stages of a BTC rally tend to see the highest prices for alt-coins. So BTC pops back to 18k perhaps, and I may unload some STEEM at whatever price it has found by then which is hopefully higher than $3 USD.