Bitcoin is down to around 4,036. I still favor more downside in the market than what we are seeing right now, but I will just say my predictive ability is not perfect. A lot of chart people on tradingview are favoring the 3,600 level still for the same reason I am. One of the main reasons is that when a trendline in bitcoin was broken in the past, we tend to see a couple moves lower. Had the China announcement never occurred, this first dip should have actually held above the trendline, and today we would be seeing the dip below the trendline.
There is a few ways to handle this. If you have an investment mentality toward bitcoin, buying in stages and on dips should be solid.
If you are treating this more like a trend trade as I have been lately, then we might wait for the market to confirm a bottom. This means we could miss the absolute sell-off and the best prices, but it might result in buying lower than what we are seeing today, for a person who looks for some type of technical analysis confirmation of a recovery.
What a reversal would look like if it happened this month
If in this decline, if 4,000 holds (the prior low), and we see a rally up above that red support/resistance line, than this would be bullish. When a trend is broken, the secondary bear rally that we have seen over the last few days is generally never reached until the declines are finished. This means if I see BTC touching up above 4,450 next week this could be pretty bullish if there were a break-out above that red area on the chart below. It would be indicative of a reversal and a retest of the highs.
Below 4,000 there are also different support levels the market has used in the past, 3,900, 3,800, and 3,600. It could be BTC may find a higher support level than the 3,600 but below 4,000.
The Risk of Waiting
Let's say we believe my analysis here about the red zone. If this 4k decline we are seeing now were the bottom, we could then become bullish again when BTC breaks above 4,500. This is a 12% missing out if we are having a double bottom at 4,000.
The Reward of Waiting
The possible reward of waiting is not easily quantified because it could be any number of support zones below 4,000. The downside could be anywhere from 3,900 to 3,100. (3% to 23%), technical analysis still favoring 3,600 (11%).
It is on the alt-coin market where a 3,600 decline in Bitcoin could be hard to watch.
Been jammed up with work the past few days, but hoping you put out an updated analysis based on the market slide we're observing now.
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Also, when I have time I'd like to do more research on decentralized exchanges. We in the blockchain community need to encourage a mass movement towards decentralized exchanges so that when governments try to bluff with their "we're shutting down bitcoin" BS we can just laugh and the markets ignore such silly comments.
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Hey, I just posted my recent update. I am cautiously long. Market could have a 3rd phase down before the big rally. Still, I think we are due for an oversold bounce and I am basically still long-term long on crypto so I think the carnage is bad enough to buy into and get the discounts.
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Watching closely
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Good analysis and great promotion on steemit. I really enjoyed this one. Agree with your view of the future.
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Good morning / evening Ted of Colorado.
As you are aware, we at COMMUNITY NEWS have always been a big fan of your work.
We are in the process of building our new Steemit news station and we are currently looking for a Cryptocurrency and Blockchain reporter - and we want you!
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Like the others we would like you to have a new, clean, separate Steemit account to post out of.
What we are looking for in this crypto-space is more about latest happenings in the crypto and blockchain world (just reporting facts) - so it would not take away from the analysis and trading theories you currently blog about as crypto-investor.
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COMMUNITY NEWS
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Hey, thanks for the offer. I do follow you guys. Going to decline on the job, though, I got a lot going on my life with Bible college. Thanks!
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You are a good man Ted - there will always be a reporter's role at Community News for you, should you ever change your mind!
SK.
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i am still holding what i have lets see how it goes
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I'm putting buy orders in all the way down to $3600
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thanks alot for your toughts on this :)
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I keep what i have and hold it for now
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This is a wonderful post. I am always trying to figure out whether to when it is best to get my money in. This really breaks it down nicely. Keep up the good content!
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we all should just waiting for Bitcoin to fall below $4000 then start buying... then wait for it to go to another all time high and start selling.
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I don't think that bitcoin will go down, and even if it will hit 3600, it will hit more than 5000 after, bitcoin is like a dancer, always up and down but generally up !
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that's very helpful post!!
thank you ;)
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Bitcoin is the top market. Thanks for sharing.
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It is indeed the altcoin market who gets the most troubles here. Bitcoin will do fine as long as people keep it as their maincoin...
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lets just watch and wait
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that's very helpful post!!
thank you ;)
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