Volatility everywhere!

in bitcoin •  7 years ago 

Hi all, Crypto Sludge here.

With traditional markets continue to tumble down, BTC as it seems for now shares their destiny. I saw a bounce attempt earlier today but for now it wasn't to successful as the sell pressure it still pretty strong.

I am seeing the panic i was missing earlier as i spoke in one of my previous posts BTC - Where is the bottom? The funny thing is that i am getting a lot more of this panic from the traditional markets, and only a little more for BTC.

And now for some first casualties for traditional markets volatility :

RIP XIV for those unfamiliar , XIV was a synthetic derivative of the VIX (fear index) that was created by Credit-Suisse bank. Yesterday with VIX hitting 50, the XIV index dropped from $108.36 on Feb 2nd to 4.22$ on Feb 5th and today Credit-suisse notified they are terminating it, effectively wiping out 96% of the investment for whoever held it, with no chance to hodl for better times :)

And they laughed at crypto...

Unfortunately i still don't have any strong predictions for BTC, i really think we are in uncharted territory here, and trying to use micro TA for macro events seem bit wrong to me, especially since we never seen BTC behave in a macro market of this kind.

What i am seeing, is that BTC is oversold in pretty much every metric i can think off, however it's one of those metrics that it can either reverse or just continue to drop (just like it continued to rise when it was overbought since pretty much October).
We might get a short consolidation period @ the 6k-7k area while traditional markets figure out what they are doing. If we do get a consolidation period, Alts will party a bit, but i wouldn't go back into the market right now until i see a clear confirmation. Drops and corrections is how a bear markets are born....

As i said before , bigger forces at play now, BTC is just a drop in the bucket compared to size of the traditional markets, it will take more time until BTC will be ready to act as a hedge for traditional market volatility - it's not ready yet, but i am sure more and more people are looking at this option, i know lots of super talented and smart people working on the tech, and on the tech front, BTC have never been stronger, the mempool is empty, even coinbase rolling out segwit :)

Please let me know what you think of the situation and my analysis.

Stay Strong.

Trade ON!

Crypto Sludge

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They are just spreading FUD so that they can buy more , they can manipulate media just as they can manipulate politics as long as there is money involved there would always be someone who is powerful enough to control them chef-309934_1280.png

According to the firm Autonomous Next, the number of hedge funds investing in digital assets like Bitcoin has grown rapidly to more than 100. Since the launch of Bitcoin Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in December 2017, it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone why the price of Bitcoin is down 50% from the high.

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Only Retail Investors chase price and buy high and sell low, while the Professionals buy low and sell high. The Hedge Funds have purposely sold Bitcoin futures to get in a better price.

At the moment, there is a war taking place between the buyers (Hedge Funds) and the sellers (Retail Investors) called capitulation. That line in the sand was at $9000. Capitulation is when investors give up any previous gains, by selling, in an effort to get out of the market. Capitulations are outcomes that result from the maximum psychological and financial pain that can be endured by a group before throwing in the towel. The Retail Investors are throwing in the towel after seeing a more than 50% correction in the Bitcoin price to the buyers, the Hedge Funds. With 100s of millions of dollars to invest, we are witnessing an accumulation phase by the Hedge Funds between $6000 and $9000.

The Hedge Funds are loading up and buying from the Retail Investors. But to fill all their buy orders, as the sell orders dry up, price must go down to the next stack of sell orders. We are approaching what I believe will be the bottom of bitcoin at $6000. My first target is $12,000 and my second target is $17,000 over the next 3 - 9 months.

The easy money has been made over the last 12-18 months. With the big boys in the game now, the rules have changes. The question is, are you ready to play to win with a new play book?

This post is my personal opinion. I’m not a financial advisor. Do your own research before making investment decisions. By reading this post, you acknowledge and accept full responsibility of any gains or losses.

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