Bitcoin has gotten some serious mainstream media attention recently. CNBC has given Bitcoin an entire week of attention, the Wall Street Journal keeps featuring Bitcoin on the front page and in OpEds, and almost every other site is starting to cover Bitcoin too because guess what - that's where the eyeballs are!
Unfortunately, I've noticed some scary side effects from this phenomenon. Most notably, people I would NEVER expect to have any idea what Bitcoin is have started asking my opinion on it. And the reality is, most of them want to know if they should be investing or not - many of these same people haven't invested a dime in their lives!
We're seeing more celebrities mention it, more sellouts like myself attempt to take advantage of the hype and even more outrageous price predictions. We really are partying like it's 1999. But my question to you all is it really like 1999?
I still think we got some steam left in this bubble - a few months at least. I suspect this because I know many people are waiting on the sidelines for a dip. I wonder if it'll pop before an ETF is approved now, while previously my thought was that it'd be roughly 2019 before it popped. I originally thought that if an ETF is approved in 2018, about a year following its approval, we'd see the majority of capital for Bitcoin dry up. At that point, a dip can turn into a correction into a bear market.
However, Bitcoin accelerated way beyond my (and anyone else's) expectations. As such, the probability of the bubble popping next year has greatly accelerated along with it. The timeline for the bubble popping may have just been shortened with all the activity and buzz we've seen lately. On the flip side, it's still mostly a 'buzz' word - not truly mainstream. Most people are just watching it, meaning there is still plenty of capital to attract. What do you think the timeline will be?
And for those still thinking it's not a bubble, even /r/Bitcoin had a pinned thread saying to invest responsibly at $10k saying it's likely a bubble! Coinbase recently did some CYA to protect themselves from lawsuits too. And expect more companies to do that in the near future as well.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below.
No, I'm willing to bet it will hit 30,000USD before it hits 15,000USD. 0.1 litecoin. You down?
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You totally called that peak
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Yes/No. We're on an S-curve where it is said by people more knowledgeable than me that blockchain tech (and by extension the crypto currencies and the crypto tokens for various platforms and applications) are in at the 1-2% penetration GLOBALLY. If you think of what happened with prices in 2017 with just that amount of penetration, just image what happens when the rest of the herd (not to mention direct institutional buying --and more of the top 1% money--) steps in.
Is there a change of a psychological blowout that pushes the price of BTC and other big names down 20-30-40%? Sure. (It would probably be exacerbated by the newbies and the uniformed who panic-sell,) but the fundamentals that drive people into these tokens will still be there, including the implementation of the underlying technologies.
If you compare this to the dot.com mania and the real estate mania of the last two decades, with the advent of social media and the higher degree of information connectivity, things move much more rapidly and we're better informed which ties in to my next point: we've never experienced the implementation of such a wide reaching S-Curve with this level of connectivity. As this ride moves forward, we are going to have to continually expand our frame of reference. We've never been on a ride like this.
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The general attitude is textbook "peak bubble," especially with the mainstream media getting in on it and random taxi drivers talking about Bitcoin, the way they would discuss stock picks in '99. Ultimately, all the additional attention will bring in a ton of dumb money, smart money will take it as they realize it's time to make at least a partial exit, and the newcomers will get slaughtered.
The important thing is: what will happen to the rest of the market? Will Bitcoin's bubble bursting drag everything else down with it? Will people flee Bitcoin into other projects that are more fundamentally sound anyway? Both have happened in the past, and knowing which way it will go when tens of billions of dollars flood out of Bitcoin is a extremely valuable.
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Excellent video, as always :)
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The main problem i see is, people are just buying because the price is going up. Bitcoin is too expensive, so they buy some Litecoin, Ethereum and add some Ripples on top of that.
From that point of view, we're already in a massive bubble.
On the other hand, this is a global market. And unlike stocks, where you need atleast some money, this is an easily-accessible and global market where everyone can invest. How many people are invested in stocks? Probably not that high %, but everyone can and might invest in crypto.
One thing is certain, the only way is up. Through bubbles and bursts.
The technology is lagging behind(there is no production ready blockchain/tech actually...yet). But i'm pretty sure crypto is there to stay in 1,2,3,5,10 years with new innovations along the way and the speculation is what will drive it forward. It's like an alternative economy.
That being said, the current valuations are WAY too high, but then again social networks grow exponentially and crypto is spreading like plague.
So HODL is most likely still the most profitable strategy, unless you manage to time the top of the bubble and time the dip, which we know is...very hard.
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Bitcoin seems to be a thin market where relatively small demand has huge impact. It will be interesting to see how long this price (or a higher price) can sustain itself. Bitcoin alone needs about 30mn of fresh money each day just to support the mined coins.
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I don't think we are getting to the end
I heard this beautiful idea from Tim Ferris the other day
That markets go getting more unstable the more they grow
That its a human illusion that big markets get more stable
That its a mistake to try to stabilise a market that is yelling for movement
It is worrying, yes and no
Yes if you are doing short term trade
Not if you really understand Antonopoulos idea of post-value economy
Bitcoin is the gate-drug to all other cryptocurrencies
BitPay is going to accept BCH as payment method
Where fees are so much less and transaction times are so much lower
As Ethereum is the gate-drug to all other smart contracts
Kik is moving from Ethereum to Stellar
Anyway, this would be my unprofessional opinion
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/DFLrGCHH-BTC-is-here-for-another-round/
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https://bitconnect.co/?ref=BitWelcome
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Yes You have completed the idea
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