Bitcoin has been facing off against altcoins as people shift their funds from "useless" Bitcoin into altcoins they perceive as useful (which are often useless as well). In my last video, I mentioned 3 potential catalysts that could cause this money to shift back into Bitcoin:
Hard fork with a lot of hype
Lightning Network which changes narrative from "Bitcoin is slow and useless, hence will die" to "Altcoins only advantage, speed and affordability, just was erased and Bitcoin already has the brand and business support." Even if it DOESN'T end up being true, the average crypto investor will likely feel this way.
Signs that more institutional investors will jump on board, such as news on additional derivatives and ETFs
Once eyes shift back onto Bitcoin, I suspect its market dominance will increase from its current level all the way up to 50% again. At the current cryptocurrency market cap, that would put Bitcoin at $23,000.
This is a fairly rudimentary and optimistic analysis. The last time we saw Bitcoin dominance fall this low was because of the threat of the Flippening (Ethereum taking over Bitcoin in market cap). When this occurred, Bitcoin recovered its dominance through a cryptocurrency selloff rather than a boom back in July (see video). While Bitcoin sold off from $2,650 to $1,900, its dominance soared from 37% to 50%.
Why did this happen? Because of "flight to safety" - as insane as it is due to its volatility, Bitcoin is actually the "safe" asset in this crazy market. It's also a quality asset as it has had a long track record along with huge community and developer support. What followed everyone is aware of: The crypto market went boom and Bitcoin retained its 45 - 55% market dominance for a while.
However, from October to December, Bitcoin had a crazy bull run which shifted dominance up to above 60%. Just last month, Bitcoin's dominance reached 65%. Yet everyone is certain that dominance will continue to tank due to being at an all-time low. I disagree with this assessment and believe a recovery to 50% (which Bitcoin has tended to hover around over past few months since the altcoin boom last year) is in the cards soon.
Even in the event that the market goes down, Bitcoin remains a safer option than other cryptocurrencies. For the record, this means I am NOT selling Bitcoin at $17k anymore. In the event of a continued cryptocurrency bull run, Bitcoin is well positioned against other cryptocurrencies and could easily see $20k+ soon. What are your thoughts?
Do a video which covers how much 'new' capital is flowing into cryptos. E.g. has the recent Altcoin gains been from capital moving out of bitcoin and vice verca. This could be a good indicator as to the future of cryptos price wise.
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The majority of ripples pump after the december flash correction came straight from bitcoin. I watched it happening. $60 billion in market cap over the course of two days!
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So assuming that a really good alt-coin could reach 10% market while bitcoin should have between 30% to 50% at most times, then if we take for example digibyte(DGB) that has 21.000.000 max coins, its 1000 times the amount of bitcoin
so even if DGB is a huge success and holds 10% of market, and bitcoin holds 50% .. dgb value should be 1/5000 of the value of bitcoin
putting a moreorless low value for btc like 15000 that would allow dgb to go up until 3 USD
but outside of this example, do you think this is a valid way to calculate the possible maximum value of a coin?
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Market cap is simply Price of a coin X circulating supply. Its exactly the same thing with stocks which are Price of a share X Oustanding shares.
It's not a subjective metric, that's literally exactly how it works.
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First and foremost, I am a huge fan of your channel, your style (even the monotone voice people love to hate) and your generally contrarian point of view.
But I can't help but agree with many of the YouTube comments I saw pointing out how frequently you change your position. One day you are buying BTC high and selling low (that was the one video where I truly disagreed with your strategy); another day you say BTC shouldn't be bought above $10k; then you say you expect it to climb but will be selling at $17k because you think it will drop after that; and now you are predicting $23k BTC. You are kind of all over the place with your predictions.
THAT IS OK, because of course as market conditions change and information changes, our price predictions should change as well... but I guess I am wondering what specifically has made you change your tune most recently from selling at $17k to now being very bullish? Was it solely the recent run up in Alt Coins? If so, that's fair, but that takes me back a few videos to when you were planning to sell at $17k. Did you not see the Alt Coin run coming at that point?
I hope I am expression my question clearly enough here, as I feel like I am a bit all over the place in this comment. But long story short: Would you care to explain/justify/whatever why you have been flip-flopping on your price predictions so much recently?
Thanks, and keep up the excellent work!
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Hi CI,
Another insightful video! It got me thinking about BTC and the markets in general. Not sure where or when the term "altcoins" got coined (lol) but it seems like a natural and reasonable description of the landscape. I wonder if it was just a analytical construct that we use out of convenience or is it a tacit subconscious admission that BTC is, indeed, the bedrock of this whole experience.
Its like a childhood game of tag and BTC is the "safe" base we can all run to when Mr Market comes to nab us. We know this in our minds but act in a manner which suggests we trust it on a deeper level than mere intellectual cognition.
Other BTC attack surfaces I have been thinking about:
Altcoins - friendly competitors in the arena. Solution: buy high quality altcoins with staying power (ie diversify)
BCash - I consider BCH a special case scenario in that its explicit aim is to destroy and replace BTC. Solution: consider the entire value of bitcoin to be BTC and ALL its forks. Own them all; don't sell off forks if you can help it. Respect the entire family and sleep better at night knowing you capture all of the action no matter which project moves forward with whatever crazy price action occurs. Suddenly, Roger Ver and Jihan Wu become your b!@#$es and work for you.
Insecure exchanges - solution: get a hardware wallet or make paper wallets and take responsibility for your newfound wealth. To paraphrase Trace Mayer, "If you have newly acquired $1 million dollars of wealth, then you should put in $1 million dollars worth of thought into securing it."
Centralization of mining - I am not well versed in this area other than knowing BTC's mining network is the most decentralized one in existence. Not sure if its trending toward more or less centralization. The CryptoAsset book you recommended mentioned the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index which can estimate the degree of monopolization of a market. At the time of their writing, BTC mining network was considered fairly decentralized. Here's a more updated and very technical evaluation which tries to quantify the issue so it can be improved:
https://news.earn.com/quantifying-decentralization-e39db233c28e
Question for you: Is it useful to think of this market in terms of sectors and construct a portfolio based on the best players in each sector? I am speaking as someone that wants to hold anything I buy for at least 1yr to avoid short term capital gains.
Thanks again, CI. See you Monday!
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Honestly I didn't use to think that it was a smart idea to separate the field into sectors because correlations used to be a lot higher, but now I think it's not the worst idea:
So on, so forth. It does seem that they pump in groups now far more often than they did before so may not be worst idea in world to diversify into groups as opposed to past where I'd say just pick whatever altcoins you like best even if that makes you concentrated in only 1 or 2 "sectors."
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Can you create a video about scalability? Bitcoin and Ethereum has scalability issues and many altcoins in the market are fixing this scalability issue. You said in a past video that it's not an important factor. I seen someone transfer $50 Bitcoin and got a $20 fee. Gaming company Steam has removed Bitcoin as a payment option because of the transaction fees. This scalability issue is real.
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Well is clear that scalability issues are a big obstacle for cryptos as currency
But for cryptos as investment it is not a big problem,
Collecting from the last 10 videos from him i assume his position is as cryptos are not a currency TODAY and are being used as investment, it doesent matter and IF they become currencies the tech of the most relevant coins will evolve to do the necesary things ( in other words the market will regulate itself)
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I agree with you that bitcoin still has a lot of life in it, and that utility isn't that important in determining price. All the newbie money is coming in and they just care about seeing it go up and patting themselves on the back.
Personally, I don't normally trade on swings or news. I generally hold onto things that are either useful now, or will be useful in the near future. Most cryptos definitely don't fall into these categories. Steemit obviously does.
I've already heard people saying to me that LN will make other fast networks obsolete, and I agree that we'll probably hear that more as LN gets closer. Kudos
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It's an interesting theory, but I disagree. The reason for my disagreement is based largely on BCH. We all know that Coinbase is one of the largest, people-friendly places to buy Crypto. For a long time, when people got a Coinbase account, They would see three cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin. As you say, 'Reality was lost a long time ago, Perception is all that matters.
However, now people will get a Coinbase account and also see Bitcoin Cash. Immediately, they will think "well, what's the difference?" They'll start to look into it, and realize that Crypto is so much bigger than Coinbase. From there they will see other options, and huge gains compared to Bitcoin (probably via CoinMarketCap) and want to try their hand elsewhere.
I honestly believe that average investors are being forced to be a little more intelligent about their 'investments' than before, and therefore they will shift away from Bitcoin much faster than before. I can see Bitcoin hitting 40-45% Dominance, but it's going to fall, and continue to fall.
That being said, I will still keep at least 25% of my portfolio in Bitcoin, because as you said, it's seen as the 'safest' crypto to invest in.
Thanks for the great content, cheers
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Thank you for the comment abiotic. I have no doubt there will be confusion, but what do you think the default is going to be when they see:
I don't think many people will mistakingly go for Bitcoin Cash. I think most people who get Bitcoin Cash will be because they genuinely believe it is better or because they think it has higher potential for returns (which partially goes along with what you said, but not fully as Bitcoin obviously has proven much higher returns in long-run since it actually has a long-run).
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Of course they will see Bitcoin first. Bitcoin is first. But I think that the confusion that will come from seeing Bitcoin Cash second will result in people wanting to research.
If people see Apple and Apple cash (Apple Cash as an example) they would think "WTF, What's the difference?" Once they investigate the difference, they'll decide it's worth the extra ten minutes (In their inexperienced minds) to research the next largest crypto. Whether that's Bitcoin Cash (because it's second on Coinbase), Ethereum (because it's the next listed crypto that isn't "Bitcoin") or Ripple (because of CoinMarketCap), They will begin their exposure to alternatives to Bitcoin.
I have a feeling that Reddit will begin to play a larger part in this ecosystem as time goes on, mostly because it is a very active community. Especially because, as everyone knows, this is a very overbought, overhyped market.
I have a feeling that the confusion that will be brought on by Bitcoin Cash will have a very bullish (in the long term) effect for Altcoins.
My question for you is; if people look as CoinMarketCap and see 250% gains on Tron, with 5% on Bitcoin, what are people going to impulsively start doing? Personally, I think that we are still in the early stages, and because of that, Altcoins are going to continue to gain relative to bitcoin.
However, Bitcoin is not going to go away. I would not be surprised to see Bitcoin hit $500,000,000 market cap. But it is my estimation that bitcoin does not hit 50% again until there is massive mainstream (read ill-informed) adoption of Crypto.
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You don't account for the fact that a lot of these news outlets are saying BTC is in a bubble, not the crypto market is in a bubble. So when new entrants discover all these other currencies that they aren't being told are in a bubble, they see more of an opportunity.
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This is illustration of what a bubble looks like, I believe bitcoin just formed the bull trap and is at the return to normal stage, but the rally up will be slow and this will cause fear amongst the new investors.
Edit: Also, if people by cryptos only to speculate, they do not have future. Cryptos are not backed by assets and are not worth even the electricity used to mine them.
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Awww this picture brings back memories... funny how many times it's been posted in relation to BTC. In 2012. Couple times in 2013. In 2015. Summer 2017. Now.
See ya next year!
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I know... when you post this graphic, you're supposed to say "Tulips! Tulips!"
You don't have to be a genius to say that cryptos are overvalued. But somehow people seem to think that saying so makes them a genius. Yes, son, cryptos are overvalued. Shush now, the adults are talking.
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https://imgur.com/nEnQrWl
:)
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Well this is why you never know when we will hit the top. The fact is you must not be lead by the image of the graph, but by the stages presented in it.
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As long as bitcoin continues to command near-zero utility value, it will always be associated with irrational exuberance and bigger and bigger idiots rushing into a market they don't understand. @yourboy said it perfectly in another comment: "Idiots are a finite resource." The only question is whether we're running out now, or later.
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Idiots are not a finite resource.
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That's where he is wrong, the supply of idiots will never cease.
Humanity itself with its entire "economy" is a primate bubble, and it's going to go plop while this century trundles towards its end.
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It seems you haven't seen the updated bubble model for bitcoin
https://imgur.com/nEnQrWl
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It can't be endless, the other name of bubbles is "the bigger idiot" market. In other words, people enter the market knowing that the asset is overpriced, but lead by greed and fomo think that someone will buy it at higher price. And idiots are finite resource.
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Of course you're right...but for now, this market has defied all logic...and I suspect it will continue to, at least for the time being. Also, on the contrary, I am making considerable returns mining a variety of coins.
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I hope that ypu continue to make money and exit the market at the right time.
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It's possible that we see the bubble pop here, but I am doubtful at this stage. So much new capital just flowed into the market and this hypothesis of mine is ONLY based on a shift of that money to Bitcoin rather than more new money. I don't think we'll see everyone heading for hills quite yet, although again - it is notoriously difficult to predict tops in bubbles so you just never know.
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If you are right for the altcoin exodus, then yeah we will see massive bull run for bitcoin, for the reasons presented by you. The question is whether or not btc will surpass it's previous high. This is what I doubt, the herd has seen one top, if it is already in the market, making profits, they will cash out of Bitcoin as soon as it reaches the previous top. At this time in the market of BTC/USD we do not have rational people believing in bitcoin's future , but speculants who are in the amrket only for the quick buck.
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Comparing that graph to the Bitcoin price, they sure look very similar. So it's easy to conclude that Bitcoin has now peaked. However, one could argue that, instead of being in the 'Bull trap' area, we've actually just entered the 'Institutional Investor' phase, and that we're in the 'Take off' area. The general public is definitely not in yet, and institutional investors, afaik, have only just begun to explore Bitcoin. For me personally, I think we will see Bitcoin at $100,000 within a couple of years. But it will surely be a very volatile ride.
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Compare it with this picture. As long as money is going to be printed at such rates because of quantitative easing, all asset classes (including cryptos) will have higher and higher USD evaluations – it's not the value of crypto that is increasing, it is the value of printed FIAT that is decreasing rapidly.
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Hey Cryptovester,
Perhaps I've missed this video or comment somewhere as I'm sort of new to the crypto space. But do you mind briefly explaining or consider doing a video on what the implications would be if a large, already established, well-known company, created their own blockchain or token?
It seems to me with how much hype there is around ICOs and the extremely high evaluations for companies that don't currently have anything more than a concept to offer, that a large well-funded company wouldn't just create their own cryptocurrency. This would help the large corporation both easily raise funds and would also likely pulverize any other competing cryptocurrencies that were trying to take market share from them... or hoped that some said corporation would adopt their cryptocurrency in the future.
The main argument against this notion that I can think of is that a lot of people, especially in this space, want more things decentralized. And if Facebook created their own blockchain or token a lot of people might not back it, sort of like the hate against Ripple. However, on the contrary... while people want more decentralization, they also want more money. Unfortunately, IMO most people will choose the latter.
Appreciate your feedback and channel—Cheers.
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It's a good question and one I've pondered before. On paper it sounds great, but I'm actually not sure what would happen in practice. I'm not sure what the legal implications are of creating a token that borders on being a security. The lack of clarity on such issues may be the very reason we don't see it occurring. Note too that they need to add some level of decentralization to it (READ: Not full control) which is scary to most executives. If they don't decentralize it, what's the difference between that and a Microsoft Point? Obviously quite a few on a technical basis, but you get my point.
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Its the kind of thing I can see a company like Facebook doing. Zuckerberg recently voiced his interest in blockchain technology and decentralizing Facebook. I feel as though Facebook is destined to fail in the long run if it does not adopt a decentralized advertising scheme where users are paid for their data and have control over what they share. Or perhaps they will intergrate and existing decentralised advertising platform like Papyrus into their site - who can say!
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I have been following you now for several months and wanted to thank you for the insightful information you have on the market. I myself am a cryptominer so it this really helps me to think about how any why the market behavior moves like it does. I do have a question that I am curious to get your opinion on.
There has been more and more talks of Nvidia already producing their new series cards (lets call it 11 series) and halting production on their 10 series. Speculators say the performance boost from these new cards could see a 30-40% hash rate increase which could spike the market as well as the difficulty or certain popular coins i.e ETH. Large companies have already made multi million dollar purchase orders for these cards before they hit shelves to consumers.
My question is do you think there is any validity to ETH and other coins spiking in the next few months or just a bunch of hot air?
I don't know your knowledge/history with mining but thought I would bounce the question off you anyways.
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BTC will hit 23k$ for sure in less than 3 months. Could also be next week. What bothers me is the potential downtrends it can take before a major bull run. If BTC 'crashes' to let's say 10k$ (like it did just 2 weeks ago), I think the next bull run will be really huge. Every investor will want to buy cheap and I'll be one of them, 23k$ will be a very pessimist target in that case.
Another is alts, I have like 30-35% of my portfolio in little altcoins, I will hodl because I think that wathever happens (even if alts drops of more than 75%), they will recover before the end of the year (in both USD and BTC pairs).
The point is should we be prepared to buy alt if BTC 'crashes' a bit ? What if alts goes up in BTC pairs ? Sell and take huge profit in BTC before the massive massive bull run ? Maybe just sell them in USD pairs ? Do not know what is best here ...
If the bullrun has already began, problem is simple, just waiting for alt growing and selling USD pairs or wait for BTC pairs to recover slowly.
Let's see what happens to BTC next week ...
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All questions that are relevant in portfolio management. It's tough no matter what you are investing in. You just have to go with what you feel the most confidence in for a variety of reasons (risk tolerance, market sentiment, news catalysts, etc.). That's how I've always done it.
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This is the best GIF i have seen this year and I have seen already a good GIFs in 2018
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Thanks bro :D
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If you could, please share the other great GIF! ;)
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Sorry dude, they are already lost somewhere in the internet and not all of them crypto related.
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this is coo!
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The internet rules.
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This feels so true! And probably the best GIF I've seen in a while :D
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My thoughts are if bitcoin reaches 500,000 USD but hold only 10% dominance that's fine by me haha!
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What I've been doing is hold a lot of litecoin, when its price reached .02 to bitcoin I flipped back into bitcoin. Litecoin tends to stay within that 0.01-0.03 range. I will continue to do this to build the Bitcoin stack.
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That's a good strategy. LTC is known for its stability in price compared to most other alts.
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That is definitely fine by me too, if it happens :)
When do you think BTC could reach $500k?
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If that happened, I agree!
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Do you think that a similar sell off is possible to around 12000$ from the current price? That way Bitcoin will take back it's dominance. That is my opinion what is your speculation?
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Of course it's possible - It's more common that Bitcoin gets back its dominance when everyone panics. But this time I think it's possible we don't see a general crypto selloff, but just a panic into Bitcoin. Why? Because I think EVERYONE feels that altcoins are overvalued, even the people who are generally bullish on them over Bitcoin because they view Bitcoin as useless. If even those people start to think altcoins are overvalued, shouldn't be too unreasonable to see a shift of capital in market back to Bitcoin. But yes, of course Bitcoin is always at risk of a drawdown.
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I also think it's fairly possible. Even to 10k$. I'm ready to buy in that case because the bull run will be really huge, everybody will want to buy cheap and the price curve will be so vertical than people who missed the train will continue to buy even after it reaches 20 or even 30k$. BTC over 30k$ before april.
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Yeah, those were my thoughts too, if the price really starts dropping that much a huge pump and a chance to make money will happen. So good luck with that situation.
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Hey!! I was wondering... What's the relation with Bitcoin and Steem when playing in the market?
When the best opportunity to take out Steem or Bitcoin, and return with little gains in one or other? do you have any post that could help??
Thanks!!
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Bitcoin and Steem share the same relationship as most alts share with Bitcoin - that is, sometimes Bitcoin will be a favorite (e.g: Steem lost market share from June til December) and sometimes Steem will be, likely while other alts are (like recently). I would say that certain catalysts, like SMTs, will give Steem a nice pump especially if any "real" websites (when I say "real," I mean with a lot of visitors) adopt it because everyone loves the word "partnership." Honestly I'm quite bullish on Steem in long-run just because it has a working(ish) product and we can actually verify through websites like Alexa & SimilarWeb that it is growing very quickly.
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Awesome reply, thank you very much. I also believe in the Steem system to make new crpyto-social sites, and i think this will really skyrocket pretty soon.
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Thanks for the heads up, I also think btc is going to take off.
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Big altcoin correction incoming. BTC is looking VERY bullish right now (the past few runs have started around the 2nd week of each month). Agree with every word cryptoinvestor. Tons of that money in ripple came from bitcoin and its going right back out of XRP and right back in BTC, after this bull run starts. Been trying to spread this knowledge far and wide to help keep people from getting burned but euphoria is as euphoria does I suppose. Great content as always.
https://steemit.com/crypto/@hvlyarmedtrader/the-most-important-video-for-ripple-xrp-investors#comments
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They are other alts than Ripple ... What to do with them ? Sell in USD, in BTC ? Waiting to see what happens if BTC hits 25 or 30k$ ? If BTC crashes to 10k$ before recovering, selling alts on BTC at the bottom will make huge profits (in BTC) and more in USD if it hits 20 or 30k$ after that. Do not know what is best here ... Maybe just trade alts in USD and take care about some hype about a particular alt that can challenge BTC (will never happens imo) ...
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Yeah, my alts got wrecked. :(
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If this comes to pass I have the perfect meme
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hello, @cryptovestor your post Why Bitcoin Could Reach $23,000 Soon
Upvote & Re-steem
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Hey I guess its time to do a new video on SALT after today's news that Visa have effectively wiped out all Crypto Debit cards in 1 fell swoop. SALT has launched their platform and will be bringing not only Cash Loans from BTC/ETH Collateral but also a Credit Card using your BTC/ETH (and others soon) as collateral. They are now the only game in town. Please let me have your view of SALT now since the last time you said it was highly risky
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I want to wait for an update on Salt til I can test platform and see what terms and conditions are like for redeeming Salt tokens at redemption value because they said you could pay down principal and interest with tokens valued at retail, but I suspect no way this is true or limit is much lower because otherwise market would arbitrage price upward which I think is much more relevant as if it is true, that would mean there is more than 100% upside very easily.
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Hey, I love your videos and your timing for these videos is excellent. I think this crazy bull run will be just like the tech bubble back in 2000. Everyone thought that bull run was crazy for example, when you look at amazons stock price from that bubble, it looks huge, but when you zoom out, that bull run was just a tiny blip in the larger picture. It took 18 years for that to happen.
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Yeah that's why they encourage you to look at log scale graphs instead, but I've always felt that most people understand scale better with linear.
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You seem to put financial institution and "most people" in the same bucket here. A rotation back to btc is indeed certainly happening due to Lightning or Segwit in "most people" case. But don't you think that a financial institution is more likely to go for a more practical solution as Ether or Ripple, all things considered ? I think they are less known to follow herd mentality than to actually make it. That could be a scenario where ether seriously threaten bitcoin domination again imo.
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No because even financial institutions understand most of these cryptocurrencies are not ready for real world use or that they are overvalued relative to their real world use, hence perception is everything. That's kind of the point of all this - Perception is all that matters. Reality was lost a long time ago.
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I was hoping BTC would hold off for maybe another week, but truth be told it does seem like its time for a new BTC run.
I agree the BTC dominance will correct, moving in favour of BTC again, perhaps not up to 60%+ again, but I think 45-50% is fair to expect.
Also I agree that much of the alt coins appear to be bubbly as compared to BTC, which is surprising to say since We all used to be talking about BTC's "bubble" and now that is not the bubble anyone is talking about.
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It's a bubble within a bubble, which is indeed funny.
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The situation is getting more and more chaotic by the day.
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I really like what you posted, once the current issues of bitcoin are solved it will still be the most recognizable as well as having less fees and more uses. I just wish I was 18 so I could buy BTC (over $500 I can invest and afford to lose, but no exchanges let 17 year olds buy in the US).
If I can get my hands on some BTC I will definitely hold on to it until the lightning network fork. I am not into crypto to make money by buying and selling but rather I am into it because I want to buy it and use it as a real currency. I think more people should think of it less as an investment and more as a currency.
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Bitcoin is grossly overvalued at $15k; there's no fundamental reason for it to break $20k again and it will probably happen. I'm getting thoroughly tired of humans.
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First of all let me say that you are probably right, but you being right or wrong about this is a matter of timing. Having said that, you provided no facts to support your conclusion. Was it fairly valued at 10k? 5k? 0k? What is the fair value and how would you determine it. How would you calculate the fair value of most other commodities? Like oil, corn, wheat? Isn’t the vast of the commodities space value determined by supply and demand?
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Well, Bitcoin is not a commodity. It's not a store of value, merely by definition; pretending otherwise is a fantasy that allows people to hold onto a ridiculously overpriced asset because they think they have a reason to do so. Bitcoin is a digital currency. It has no intrinsic value; it's not a physical object that can be used for any other purpose. It can only offer utility value as a payment network, which at ~5 tx/s and prohibitively high fees is pretty close to zero. The problem, of course, is that rampant speculation is what's filling up bitcoin's blocks and driving up its fees, destroying most of the utility value it could have commanded at, say, < $0.05 fees with 150-200k transactions/day available to be used in commerce. And that's the most annoying thing about bitcoin: the hysterical speculation not only drives up the price too much, but also shrinks its utility. Instead of going from, say, 20% utility/80% expected value to 11%/89% (a doubling of the expected value portion), the same increase in expected value drives it from 20%/80% to 1%/99%, making the bubble its in look even more bloated than it otherwise would.
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It's so hard to say given the wider adoption of alt -coins which is going to drive BTC up due to BTC being a gateway. The gateway effect is even acting on ETH and LTC as retail investors of smaller amounts look to minimize entry fees. I would be looking at LTC and ETH as additional gateways that typically have lower fees (although Gas price is nuts on ETH atm).
Should be an interesting few weeks to see how much capital comes into the space, Looking at how the other gateways are functioning I think will shadow how-high BTC goes.
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The problem is that eventually even those get moved into Bitcoin since most altcoin trading pairs are liquid in BTC rather than ETH or LTC. So yes, we see fiat --> ETH ... but then we ultimately see ETH --> BTC in majority cases, then finally BTC --> Altcoin.
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I think it is also a matter of time when ETH --> Altcoin...
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Where do you see Bitcoin at the end of 2018 as the market is right now and the plans for Bitcoin are this year? And how do you see Ethereum surviving the altcoin crash (if your prediction is true)?
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Hi! Thanks for the followup about bitcoin.
Your videos always give me a sense of calm during these turbulent market changes :-) ...
Bitcoin really seems to be used for hedging for a lot of people. It's also because all exchanges use bitcoin as a primary currency. One question about that though.
If for example, Binance or Bittrex would introduce the ability to purchase all altcoins with Fiat currency, would that be the end for bitcoin as we know it? What is your opinion on this and do you think it's possible to see it happening in the future ?
Thanks for all the great content.
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No because it'll still be the cryptoasset with the longest track record (meaning flight to safety principle still applies), but it would certainly cause a decline in valuation. It's not likely they enable fiat on their platforms though.
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This article resonates with me and something I often think about with regards to Bitcoins future. https://medium.com/deviota/decentralised-cryptocurrency-is-dead-c1763dc75efb
While I agree the name Bitcoin goes a very long way - Can it really overcome it's technical limitations to give us all what we want out of it? Is a decentralized currency more likely to come out of an altcoin?
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Thank you for sharing that article. Very interesting! It helped me organize a many thoughts I had in mind.
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$23k will be one small step upward at the top of the year. No biggie, no doubt, just sit and wait.
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Hey cryptovestor!
Your number one potential catalyst is Bitcoin hard forks. I can also see that hard forks can lead to more traction and price action - at least I remember times where it seemed to be the case (expectation of Bitcoin Gold and Segwit2x). Now, however, there are numerous Bitcoin forks, and the number alone seems to make each of them less significant. Here you can see a post with all the current and upcoming forks: https://steemit.com/forks/@smallstepschange/651qu6-bitcoin-forks-latest-overview-forking-dates-block-heights-distribution-ratios-official-homepages
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That's why it has to be a big hard fork, not just another small fry since there are so many of those.
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Can Bitcoin please just move to $23K already so that we can get back to making money off of Alts! This morning's move was brutal.
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As beautiful as your writing and beautiful
I see your post.
i will read your articles every day from today.
promised.
please follow me and give me a vote kindly
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Another reply just to ask : Have you heared abot RSK, the smart contract coin for bitcoin ? War between BTC & ETH coming ? They claim RSK will be a scalability solution for BTC, that's obviously a big joke to hide the fact they want to take money from the ETH token system. What do you think about that ?
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I always liked your reports about cryptocurrencie and cryptomarket , i must confess there is a bitcoin religion while the technologie is not about the precursor , evolution never end .
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There is indeed a lot of potential and positive vibe on Bitcoin now to go much higher from its current price.
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That's a very ambitious speculation. I hope that bitcoin goes to $23,000, but I believe we will see another dip before bitcoin crosses the $20,000 mark. Also, it needs some strong catalysts and media hype to get past its previous highs.
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Seems like the market has started to restructure.. Most altcoins are heavily down and Bitcoin is jumping up
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I'm still selling circa 17K just to lock in the gain. I only sold 2% last time it was that high, and when it dipped I didn't have very much cash to buy low with. As a result, while I manged to hedge my losses, I still have losses. Whereas I would be up now had I been less timid.
I'll only sell 15% of my portfolio, so if BTC does keep on chugging I'm still on board for the ride. But I'll also have a few dollars in my pocket. So I've got that going for me... Which is nice.
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Sounds like a plan Stan!
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HOLY CRAP. Did I call that one. Sold within dollars of gdax peak. Don't know what tomorrow will bring of course.
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This scenario was likely to happen... Over and over
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You been taking a sneaky peek at @haejin TA? ;)
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/bitcoin-btc-morning-update-higher-highs-expected-short-term-usd23k
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No actually, funny coincidence though.
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Because you posted this? lol
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Like your video's! I also see the Bitcoin as a big truck. Nobody's is going to slow him down. Cute altoins :)
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I should have transferred funds around last night after reading your recent post, being new to this I didn't realize how fast the market could shift away from altcoins, but this action seems like it's already happening, at least to some degree, what kind of drop in altcoins do you see? After the recent run-up will they plummet back to where they were or still be ahead?
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It'll vary. Much of the dominance Bitcoin lost was to cryptocurrencies we see in the top ten, namely:
etc... So for it to come back to 50% dominance, those cryptocurrencies will have to give up some ground. How much ground will depend on how much people realize their initial run-up was irrational. Tron will likely get slammed. So... in short, depends on the altcoin. In general, at 50% dominance, most will be back to where they were around mid December, after Bitcoin crashed from hitting $20k first time.
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Thanks for the quality analyses every time. I, however, disagree to this one. Another big factor is people's price memory - Ripple, Cardano, Stellar, ... have consolidated pretty strong resistance levels during the period while they go up crazy. You may say that they were too short period of time but if you look at their price charts, you would see their own way of consolidation happened. Those alt coins prices have moved up 4x - 10x since mid-December; they may give up 20 - 30 % (even up to 50 %) from the current high when this price churning gets settled down but I don't think they would give up entire gain since mid December.
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Don't mean no disrespect but you flip-flop faster than clark-cent
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People say that, but I've been touting Bitcoin over altcoins for over two weeks now (since alts started booming) and the only thing that has changed is that because so much money has pumped into the market, I think it's time it shifts back to Bitcoin. I don't even think new money is needed to push Bitcoin to $23,000 now, unlike before.
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agree, great vid.
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Some of the most popular exchanges are temporarily closing doors for new registrations. That should somewhat reduce the influx of the "new people who only have heard of bitcoin", shouldn't it? Agree with the rest of your arguments, though.
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Well technically that just reduces ability for people to get into alts, but not into Bitcoin (since Coinbase is still open) so should increase demand for cryptocurrencies with fiat on-ramps (BTC, BCH, ETH, & LTC) over alts.
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I agree. I also don't think the argument that bitcoin is slow and has high fees therefore it cant be used as a currency is a valid one ether yet so many people seem to use it. Were all betting on the future of a coin and bitcoin has some of the most promising tech on the way, some already implemented just waiting for wide spread adoption (SegWit for example). Im familiar with many many cryptos and I cant name you one id be willing to use as an every day currency regardless of how fast or cheep they are. They are all currently far to volatile to be used as a real currency. Who in their right mind would use any coin to buy product x when the value of that coin could 5x in a week. Show me a coin that's stable and ill show you one I might use as currency.
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If it is full bull-mode, I expect it to correct around 17500, 19000 or 21000 in the most optimistic case before the real run. I've already sold some of my well-performing ALTS in preparation. I am not a fan of BTC, but denying its status and potential, as well as the pretty looking charts, would be like lying to myself.
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It has already 9 days past since you have posted. My idea is that correction is about to be finished and BTC is going to strike back. Here are 2 ideas to support my thoughts:
Thank you, CI!
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Digital money can make us rich to deal with ourselves. I genuinely trust that. Be that as it may, what I additionally accept is that it will influence us to sufficiently fit to serve the penniless also.
It is absolutely difficult for all to give. Every one is battling in their own specific manners. In any case, that is the magnificence of life is it not? One who has seen the intense time will identify towards the one enduring. Such a one when independent can promptly consider helping other people. When I put in endeavors to gain, I should put in little endeavors along to share.
One might be poor out of absence of education, another might be expected life's weight of overwhelming obligations, another might be out of sheer apathy and some might be not able meet the sudden needs of life. In any case, the truth of the matter is same. They all need assistance. From numerous points of view it can be tended to.
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I like your thesis but even if you're complete wrong, bitcoin will hit $23k in the coming months. More likely if your thesis is correct, we'll see BTC at almost $50k (I'll bet 10 bucks it hits $48k by the fall). My counter argument for a much higher value is that the altcoins have created additional wealth in the system which will be transfered to BTC when the inflow happens. ie; the money that left BTC into alt coins is now 50 times more valuableable. Even if a liquidity squeeze happens, it's still going to push BTC to $50k.
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As a small time miner im really fliping between getting ETH and BTC payouts. Since my plan is to mine and HODL do you think its currently better to get BTC and move it to a local wallet so i get "free money" during the fork like you said in one of your last videos. I hope i understand correctly that during a fork you keep your BTC and get some other currency for free?
Oh also since i have a few DOGE do you have ANY idea whats driving its price up? Is it people just saying "Oh it cost so little if it gets to 1$ ill be rich"?
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@gothika Before the announced block size you need to have BTC stored in such a way that you have access to your private key (via software wallet or HW wallet). Here is an example of how you could have claimed BTG: https://99bitcoins.com/how-to-claim-bitcoin-gold-btg-guide/
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I think I might have some little amount of btc in an old wallet so I might try that. Also I will wait for the new fork I guess.
Also some one told me something about zclasic having something similar.
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Another insightful analysis. I think a lot will depend on what happens to summer 2017 ICOs. If a lot are perceived as successful and do deliver some of the features presented in road maps the shift might go even further, no?
Your view on utility is correct. Most tokens do not offer a real utility, except a select few (from revenue sharing, DAOs or buy-to-use) . But this can easily reverse depending on what happens during the year.
If a some of the key ICOs deliver, then people might build confidence into shifting more % into altcoins. If there are big issues with some major ICOs i think you're 110% right.
But then again, there's that thing.. the number of people that will enter the market. I know of so many investors just waiting for approval on many different exchanges. When they're able to buy, oh boy im sure bitcoin will pump. What im still not sure is how much risk averse or lovers those investors are.
Again, thanks for sharing! Love your content!
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It seems to me you fell asleep in December, woke up in the 2018 and started doing the market analysis before reading the news. There is this thing called bitcoin futures market which just launched and with that, some investors can invest in bitcoin without pushing up the price. Also, the fact that most US traders (which makes up a large minority of bitcoin traders) didn't have easy access to shorting bitcoin and only thought about how high bitcoin could go suddenly heard short getting thrown around in December means FOMO buying season is over. I only hesitate to go full Bruce Lee on this post because some of the sites that let you do leverage trading don't accept US customers.
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How likely is the bubble to pop before one of these catalysts are dropped?
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Couldn't tell you.
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Do you know why Bitcoin pumb in Nov 2016 ?
That time in India On 8 November 2016, the Government of India announced the demonetisation of all ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes of the Mahatma Gandhi Series.
Thing about digital India and rising "PayTm" downloads in playstore.
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I totally agree with you, Bitcoin dominance will go up in the next few weeks, however litcoin will also rise with it :)
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The argument that it isn't a problem that is hard to transfer bitcoin because people buy it to speculate on its future value is proof that bitcoin is a bubble!
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BTC tends to dominate the market up by more than 50%, after it struggles for quite sometime.
On the other side, there is so much payment using LTC compared to any other currency as of today's Charlie's twit. LTC is be adopted by several business sectors, but strangely the price hasn't gone up. You haven't given LTC that much coverage. I wonder why.
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you're holding steady in providing rich insight. good job
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Just another high quality video! Thanks for putting a lot effort on your videos mate!
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What about the dead cat bounce?
It seems to me that your approach has been very technological in your last couple analysis. But personally I still feel very insecure regarding my positions.
From a purely investment standpoint, what I understand is that as long as Bitcoin does not break its all time high, a huge burst can still happen anytime.
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Do you belive that applying the lightning network on BTC will be the end of LTC?
The only thing Charlie Lee talks about in his interviews is how the Litecoin is faster and cheaper. He always gives the buying coffee with LTC while buying a house or a car with BTC.
So if BTC became as fast and cheap to transfer, would that put a dagger in LTC's heart?
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Looking on a daily basis I would say it's all about rocking the boat. And I would say it's pretty obvious why. You pump one side then the other in order to dump and shift into fiat or other crypto currency. After such a bullish run since November there were these shifts from "foundation" coins (BTC, ETH, LTC, ...) to different altcoins an back. There is more interest in having a highly volatile market in order to have mainly fiat gains (or buying altcoins cheap) that to really hodl.
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Just watched your Youtube video and led me to your account here. Stoked to see what else you share. Cheers.
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What are your thoughts about the upcoming bitcoin futures contracts as they expire? Nobody seems to talk about it. Thanks!
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One very bullish factor: people will start getting their tax refunds soon. I expect some of this to go into Bitcoin
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Bitcoin comin back up to 300 billion marketcap
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LTC will follow Bitcoin? :)
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In the past this seemes to have been true, But recently I see that LTC to a higher degree follow BCH now.
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I agree a steady price action is taking place with BTC and will continue in the coming weeks and if it doesn’t I think it signals valid speculation to the value of the market as a whole. Especially when we have legitimate projects, making legitimate progress with little to no price action, while projects like Paccoin are up 3382% in the last 7 days because of the new to crypto total supply phenomenon “did it myself in August with golem.” PAC is a project that when searching for the white paper this is what you find This site can’t be reached pacifica-nation.com’s server IP address could not be found. BUT DON’T WORRY their official website has a brand guideline pdf that will give you the vital details of recreating the paccoin logo and background colors. If anyone can explain how this project rightfully valued at 752 billion dollars I would be grateful to hear your thoughts.
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Thanks again for the great content. I was wondering if you have heard about the rumors that RIPPLE has been pumped by hedge funds and other financial instututions because it is not decentralised and easier to control. Do you think it could be possible? And do you think it would be a threat for the cryptomarket?
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Perfect timing on your video last night.
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Back to basic it's all theory's and the crypto market is so young that it is not easy to make predigtions like in the shares market. And even the shares are hard to predigt, but i must say that the crypto boom is much more fun and i have never invested so much time in such a fenomenal invention. Thanks to all that are taking part in this event and keep smiling 😆
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I realize $20k is quite a big psychological barrier right now with so many people having bought in high during the last surge, but I'm curious as to how you got to $23k?
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Take cryptocurrency market cap, multiply by 50% market share (or divide by 2) and divide supply of Bitcoin into that. It comes to very close to $23,000 (market cap fluctuates obviously so it will change, but as of today it's right around that range).
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Looking at the difference between previous highs and the next high after a breakout, a few times it's 10% or 20% higher, but many times it's 50% higher, and even 200%, like from $8K to $18K and $1,300 to $2,700K. And since $20K surely is a monumental psychological barrier/milestone, if we break through that, imo, we could easily go quickly up to $30K. And after that hopefully $20K becomes the new support to take it even higher in the future.
P.S. I really like your videos and your commentary. Thank you very much for doing this. Keep up the great work!
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I have strated trading with ETH as a base pair instead of using BTC. I personally like ETH more as a project and always feel safer when I am in ETH.
Do you feel that I am losing out on "generating alpha" by accumulating ETH?
I would love to hear how others trade and what you use as a base.
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I think rather than burst, Bitcoin is more likely to fizzle amidst all the alt coins around it; but it will still be there, even if its market capitalization drops to below 10% at some point.
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Well, considering all that is happening around Bitcoin so far has been negative I can not really see it reaching the 20.000$ levels soon. All it had in the past months is negative adoption.
Companies that previously accepted Bitcoin are no longer doing so, people are moving over to Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and others.
Out of the three catalysts that you mentioned:
Hard fork, there is one happening, the Bitcoin Private fork, but people are buying ZCL instead of holding Bitcoin
Lightning network is still in alpha stage
People are very, very annoyed and FED up with the Bitcoin Core developer team.
Now this is one important thing that I heard from some people over the internet:
Smart money left Bitcoin during the insane run up in the first 2 weeks of December.
Since then you could only see money flowing into altcoins.
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I like your analysis. I don't know why I think like the way you think :D
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@cryptoinvestor, what are your thoughts about buying XMR while its dipping? Haven't seen anyone talk about it and we know it. I assume coins that went up 3 to 5 or 10 times like Cardano and Substratum might even drop lower you think?
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It's one of my favorites right now. Might make a video on it soon.
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Wanna try cloud mining? No noisy and slow computers at home. Everything automated , you choose hashrate, crypto to mine, pay and just sit back and let everyone else do the work while you are making money.
Genesis-mining.com 4% Discount Code!
hc5xet
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Please stop this shit. The maximum discount you can get via one of these links is 3%, not 4%.
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