Bitcoin has had a crazy past week relative to the slow and steady downtrend we've been in. Volume finally started to pick up and notably price pumped $1k in 30 mins before we saw the market start to stall again.
Last week I started to become tempted to buy Bitcoin at around $6800. Bitcoin had been trading around that level for 2 weeks, so mentally I suspect I started to feel like we were at a bottom and I didn't want to miss out on the next pump. The fact that I felt FOMO while we were trading sideways (especially given my general pessimism) LIKELY means that many other market participants feel the same way. The only reason I didn't buy is because of trading rules I've set where I can't increase my position size in Bitcoin until it goes down to $5k.
Furthermore, Bitcoin dominance is starting to fall which means money is shifting into altcoins again. This is a risk-off trade which shows confidence in the market. My confidence in my 50% BTC dominance prediction is finally starting to wane, which given the level of conviction I had for months despite all the criticism I received for it, is a sign that perhaps the market is ready for more stupid behavior (AKA another nice bull run).
In terms of altcoin trades I'm looking at, I discuss the following:
- Litecoin at 0.015 BTC
- Monero below 0.025 BTC
- Nano at around 70 - 75k Satoshi (yes, the crypto I called a pump & dump - it's finally come full circle)
What are your thoughts on the market? As usual, feel free to share them with me and the community in the comment section below. Thanks for watching / reading!
@cryptovestor great video and I'm glad that you mentioned that you were on steemit I would have never known it keep up the good work Buddy
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i dont think monero has govt related issues or will ever be in . But i am concerned more on the community around it , development in particular (just recently forked into 4 offshoot) . These are signs of internal stress . I hope i am wrong . And i agree about ltc and nano. Thanks for the cover.
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by nature you cannot stop the forks, I suppose what you'd want to decide on is if you want to stick to the one that stays asic resistent. Also, keep in mind that if key people in an "anonymising" currency stay anonymous, that would be better, but in saying that I dont fully understand ring signatures all that much...
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Monero isnt anonymous , its transaction is just private . So i will hope to have more community development around it. Utility drives the price and building an advocate panel through community is a proven method of brining more users, hence utility.
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Right, I need to do more research on Monero..
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I am still hesitant to think the bottom is in as I have not the traditional capitulation bottom seen in certain assets in the past. While this may be a signal that it is a bottom, I am just looking to scale into my core positions and research some potential additions to the portfolio. BTC dominance is done for but I do believe that bigger, quality assets will outperform Altcoins in general as most do not have a working project and will fail to get one done given the regulatory environment and the potential impact it may have on projects, teams and investors. However, in the long term this bear market will prove to be another bump in the chart as market capitalization will continue to grow as it becomes a more relevant asset class.
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Agree, capitulation hasn't yet occurred.
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you and I are on the same page..you know I called BUY last wednes..(6950) called resistance 8400..I don't like the sentiment no's I watch. Longer term? higher.
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Hello, thanks for your comment, but pardon my ignorance but how will regulations stifle product creation and innovation?
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Great video. I've been buying small amounts every week for the last month. Still buying after the pump. I also think the market has bottomed out. Although some alt coins have jumped too high too fast.
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as always, you have my support.
D.
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As usual very in depth detailed video, you are a breath of fresh air in this space. No shilling or hyping up garbage coins just the facts. In order for the crypto market to become mainstream we need more individuals like yourself.
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Personally I am not sure that this is the bottom although I am happy to be proved wrong. Google trends results for both BTC and crypto show no discernible up tick and I am wary when the big investors and funds state that they are going to invest. The likelihood is that they are already invested and are in fact looking to offload.
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LTCBTC is a great trade. I've been trading the swings for 6 months now. It's pretty much the only coin that you can do that with against bitcoin.
Yesterday I posted an article and in it I stated that I think Bitcoin will go as low as $3,500 because it dropped 85% in it's last bear market in 2014. Is $3,500 bitcoin out of the question in your opinion?
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Looking at the graphs today trend reversal can be seen to have started at the beginning of April for most of the coins which is great news. It would have been interested to hear your thoughts about other jumps such as EOS, NEO, Steem or XLM and whether you think there have been legitimate catalysts due to which these cryptoassets spiked.
On a slightly different note, it seems like a great time to get a couple of good quality videos out and snatch the "cryptocomebackers" who will soon be looking for high quality content online, @Cryptovestor. Seize the opportunity while other cryptotubers are still relatively quiet.
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hi
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I love your positive videos. And I also think that we found a bottom. All those get quick traders have already sold and there is no real reason for those who have bought in at sub 9k.
I think we see the daytraders taking profits after some upwards movement, but it is largely accumulation by smart money (because smart money wouldnt have bought in at 20k). The price probably will go sideways, maybe slowly upwards until we get a catalyst (like an BTC ETF or something else and less awesome).
And then the price will go up really quickly (as seen with the 1000$ pump a couple of days ago), as the not so smart money and the daytraders, rush in, to ride the way. Lets see, where it will take us.
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I'm not sure if it is already the time to call the end of the bear market, let's see.
But don't you think this 'pump' of +1k in a couple of minutes isn't sustanable, come on...
Plus, I don't think volume has gone up THAT much
PS: Your channel will never die, we'll stay with you... FOREVER...
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I tend to disagree with what the bottom may be. If was to give some sort of reasoning, I can with my own certainty say the bitcoin price will not bottom down to $1000 USD ( although I would relish this idea). But thats if worry about Fiat. As Tim Draper says, 1 bitcoin is 1 bitcoin, its fiat thats volatile against bitcoin in my personal oppinnion. Also I totally agree with your statements regarding LTC and XMR
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Hi mate, great content. I am trying to come up with original content for bitcoin and crypto as well and will appreciate if you can provide some feedback on my latest article. Can't afford the bots on steemit.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@karamyog/waiting-for-institutional-money-to-uplift-bitcoin-price-let-s-do-a-deep-dive
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hi
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Haha it's not you. A lot less people are interested in cryptos now compared to a few months ago.
I notice in past pumps it has taken a long while for BTC to settle and then to pump again. Not sure from memory but at least a year each time.
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when are you making your video about good projects ?
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Even as the tecnhicals on a daily basis show a bottom forming and most gut feelings signalling the same as you mentioned in the video; I have a contrarian gut feeling of equal strength riding side by side with the positive one.
As shown in the chart below, BTC usage is at par with prices far lower than today's. It seems that while the asset is not used enough in real life, as the other cryptocurrencies are not as well, there is a growing buy-and-hold investor base here.
To that end, if this investor base remains resilient than the price could go up significantly higher albeit with a major bull trap risk. However as nobody expects it, all of a sudden if this self fulfilling investor demand is dented and the price slips enough, then at least March low will be tested with a risk on the downside.
So I am divdided but not comfortable :)
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Hey, Crypto Investor! I'm curious as to what your thoughts are on Carbon and Hedera Hashgraph. Carbon just recently finished its seed round, and I am curious about your opinion of the underlying principals and technology of the coin.
Loved your initial video on Tether and the issues you brought up in that discussion. Does Carbon address any of those issues and legislative challenges, in your opinion?
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I really liked that you mentioned having a limit with buying/investing even though there is a tempting offer, I believe that everyone who wants to invest needs to have such a barrier from stopping them make a impulsive buy.
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The decoupling of BTC from the Alts will begin as the technology matures, and those platforms are seen as a value unto themselves in investors minds, especially the institutional investors. Now you are correct every one runs to the safe haven of BTC, bc they don't believe these platforms can stand alone.
Evidence of the switch is on Coinmarket Cap itself. Now you can compare USD, BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, LTC to all the other coins. i.e. I think Coinmarket cap forsees a flippening in the future, and is prepared for it. The Lambo comparison I think was their way of trying to highlight that to folks (in a joking way), bc I don't think many people noticed it.
On another note.... isn't it interesting after the 'Cartel' theory came out the BTC market suddenly stabilized?
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@cryptovestor I really don't think this recent btc pump had anything to do with pure market FOMO. It was a confluence of events but primarily:
Throw Whale OTC news in there, and some tax shit, and suddenly this is an entirely different story about what happened. Do not believe the conspiracy theories. A vast majority of the rest of the noise out there is just to mislead you, or is clearly put together by people who have no business making any financial recommendations of any kind.
Edit:Absolutely not a knock, only a comment about the news media marketplace in general; it is a shell game designed to self reinforce your own beliefs, not give you the news. Thanks @cryptovestor.
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@muppetdingdong where do you get the info on the number of short/long contracts are placed? I've not been able to find it.
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Tradingview.com (start an account if you don't have one, you're welcome.) > Indicators > Search > "btc shorts" You're looking for BTCUSD longs vs Shorts. Or you can just search btcusdshorts in the symbol field. Google has a fair bit of information about it as well. Carter Thomas of Coin Mastery talks about it a good amount fairly regularly, quite a few other youtubers had been bringing it up as the shorts started getting into all time highs.
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Sweet. Appreciate you taking the time to explain that. Thank you @muppetdingdong.
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Awesome video! Great point to on thinking in satoshi. USD is irrelevant unless your trading in usd or usdt. 10k sats could be worth one dollar amount one min and 30 min later BTC pumps now 10k sats is worth more so trading dollar amount was pointless.
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@cryptovestor- Just curious if you might do a video on market psychology, how it helps you or if you this at all with crypto analysis
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It's so good to look up your profile at steemit and discover you've published a new video.
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@cryptovestor You're in the zone with this post. Dude, I felt it too! I don't even how to describe it, I just knew that a bull was aproaching. Spooky. Yeah, I have always measured alts in SAT's. Turn off that dollar sign, it's just distracting. Good stuff, Sir.
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Haha nah man you're not that annoying, maybe a bit too pessimistic sometimes for people's appetites, but I like hearing a pessimistic view in a market that has such exuberant optimism. I think you make some very good points too. Tbh wouldn't mind hearing some more FA videos on some coins, especially XMR.
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Love your vids!
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Still think we are going to have to have a puke before the new bull starts...we haven't had the puke yet.
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Accumulation Mode 💪🏼🙌🏼💯
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Nice video. I appreciate your honesty and openness. Lesser vloggers would have thrown up smoke screens when what they expected to happen did not happen. Allowing your views to evolve based on the changing data points helps build trust with your audience. Well done.
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There's no one else in this space I listen to religiously. You really are head and shoulders above everyone else. Period. Thanks.
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I appreciate that he doesn't over hype anything.
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With the recent gain over two consecutive weeks, your posting couldn't be more conclusive to Bitcoin reached the bottom in this current cycle.
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Thanks for the all explainations mate ! Also just before when the price jumped, I had also shared u can take a look at my Chart on my profile . Resistance worked like charm . We all Love Crypto Life !
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Great topic...Crypto is the future of the world. It will be next marketing system like money
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The data suggested we hit bottom. It was stalled at $250 billion for a while. If we hold for a week, we are in a recovery cycle. I do not recommend buying or selling at this juncture. Wait for a dip. Then it may be the best time to buy in.
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