On Monday, November 30th the financial world held their collective breath as Bitcoin reached its highest value yet, topping its December 2017 all time high. The skeptics had been proven wrong.
Finixio has been keeping a close eye on this story for years. The media company publishes a wide variety of content and has done for several years. As a result their expertise in the area is second to none, and they are making their forecast on its future....
The History
In 2017, Bitcoin rocked the market by reaching an unforeseen peak of $19,783. This made professionals and amateurs alike stand at attention and start to take cryptocurrencies seriously.
The dream didn’t last long. Bitcoin was still an extremely volatile asset and the currency crashed spectacularly shortly after. It lost 25% of its value in only a day and by late 2018 it was valued under $4,000. There was no shortage of financial skepticism regarding its future.
But Bitcoin had been worth only hundreds in 2016 and mere cents in 2008. Despite its colossal fall, it had stabilized at a price that would still make early adopters unbelievable profits.
The Present
Eighteen days before the third year anniversary of its previous high, Bitcoin reached a value of $19,857.03. It began the year around $7100 and by October, it was already exhibiting an amazingly profitable year.
Renewed interest was sparking, and financial experts had started making amazing predictions from late spring. By the summer it was becoming clear that crypto and digital currency would have a huge role to play in the new global economy.
BTC started November at $14,000 and ended it with a bang. Monday’s peak was followed by an expected devaluation. By Thursday trading had gone down slightly with exchange data showing only $990 million in trades versus Wednesday’s $1.3 B and November $1.5 B average.
However, this time around people are not expecting a crash. In fact, both enthusiastic and cautious investors are predicting significant gains for Bitcoin in the next two years.
A Volatile Asset
Estimates vary wildly as to where the price of Bitcoin will land. Some say that it may reach $60,000 by next year, others believe it might even break $100,000.
But Finixio’s own Adam Grunwerg warns that Bitcoin is still a very volatile asset that’s likely to keep experiencing ebbs and flows. In the next year we could see fluctuations as big as 20-30% in BTC value.” As a partner who has traded the rise and fall and rise of the currency over many years, he has the experience to back this up.
However, crypto trading expert Adam is largely optimistic about the future “These fluctuations are not going to be enough to slow it down. Bitcoin will likely break $50,000 in 2021.”
The market trend is clear. Despite Bitcoin’s variability, new bull cycles see the highs go higher and the lows get higher as well. This is to say that Bitcoin keeps breaking its previous records and stabilizing at higher prices after its drops.
Where is the Trust Coming From?
The reason for investors’ newfound faith in crypto has to do with who is doing the investing. In 2017, Bitcoin’s price was driven up by individual investors who believed in the future and value of the technology. At the time though, Bitcoin was not a reputable investment. It was not backed by any assets or by a government and lack of mainstream support was adding to its risk.
In 2020, the rise of Bitcoin is driven by institutional investment. Large hedge funds and publicly traded companies are driving this bull cycle and they don’t present the same reputational drawbacks that retail investors do.
Recently, Square and Paypal have added crypto currency to their offering. Mainstream financial media is paying attention and reporting on crypto on the daily. And this time it’s not dismissive. This time it’s serious business.
The involvement of such large players in the Crypto world gives it the legitimacy it needs. We are likely seeing the beginning of the entry of digital currency in the mainstream and in the following years, this market will harden into its proper mold.
Why are institutional investors starting to pay so much attention to Bitcoin? The answer lies in our Covid-19 stricken world. Countries have had to increase debt in order to support the financial burden of closed economies and reduced output.
“Covid has completely changed the game when it comes to patterns of invested capital. Nations and companies are hedging their assets like never before with crypto”, says Adam Grunwerg .
This resulted in inflation which led investors to seek to hedge against it as the purchasing power of the dollar and other fiat currencies started rapidly decreasing.
The Supply Problem
Another important factor that is likely to continue driving up the price of Bitcoin is its supply problem.
There is only a limited amount of Bitcoin available. Although Bitcoin can be mined, there are very few who are actually doing that and all other investors depend on the supply. What’s more, Bitcoin miners are going to be incentivised to keep a hold on to their assets as prices soar.
Chris Thomas of Swissquote bank explained “the supply and demand imbalance is just incredible”. Institutional buyers are picking up large amounts fairly quickly and demand doesn't look like it’s going to dry up.
Glassnode reports that miner wallets such as Lubian.com, F2Pool, Binance Pool and Poolin collectively hold more than 33,000 BTC. Thomas added “Miners need to cover their operating costs [..] it’s clear we’re going to continue going higher in a fairly convincing way for quite some time yet.”
As this trend continues, BTC prices will continue to rise but the supply problem will have another notable consequence that Finnixio advises inventors to pay attention to.
Other Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin is not the only cryptocurrency in town and its supply problems are likely to drive other competing currencies up as well.
In the last few days the ETH/BTC has also been on a bull cycle. Ethereum has seen a 350% increase in its value since the beginning of the year, and investors seem to be willing to buy Ethereum with Bitcoin.
Last week ether briefly passed the $600 mark, Mr. Grunwerg tells us. Its creators have also announced exciting updates that are said to fix ether scalability issues, thus making the currency even more competitive.
Other than Ethereum, both Cardano and Orchid benefited from the Bitcoin rise last week.
The Future
As predicted, it seems we are entering the era of cryptocurrency and digital coins. Finixio is here to take you along for the ride and tell you everything you need to know about trends and their impact. It’s a transformative time for the fintech industry and this time, it’s not going to slow down.