Time to get out of Bitcoin at 10,000
A recent post on Steemit Bill Gates Bearish on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Investments in my opinion puts a nail in the coffin in terms of Bitcoin price rising (it represents a sell signal) as there seems to be a lot of money on the sidelines looking for a way to short Bitcoin. Two major indicators are the fact that first the MtGox Trustee has a lot (and I mean a lot) of tokens for sale. In my opinion too many for me to feel safe buying Bitcoin due to the very strong probability of a dump or at least a price suppression due to so many coins being for sale. This MtGox scenario is that the Trustee has tens of thousands of Bitcoin for sale (400 million) and while this hasn't crashed the price so far it doesn't mean that these coins aren't reducing demand.
And the latest news is that Bill Gates is looking for a way to short Bitcoin. So not only is Bitcoin facing problems with coins waiting to be sold to suppress demand but also Bitcoin generates new coins via mining every day. On top of this, one of the richest men in the world is looking to find a way to short Bitcoin.
Interestingly Bill Gates specifically said he wants to short Bitcoin and highlights the fact that Bitcoin has no utility. This is not true for every token or for blockchain technology as a whole. Why might Bill Gates believe Bitcoin is not a good investment and should be shorted? Bitcoin doesn't produce anything, and doesn't provide utility. This is not the case in my opinion of cryptocurrency as a whole but this depends on circumstances. Cryptocurrency allows people to buy stuff online in privacy but depending on where you fall on this politically you may think it has no value or some value.
Conclusion
The problem of Bill Gates threatening to short Bitcoin is that it may be bad for the ecosystem. The ecosystem isn't JUST Bitcoin but if Bitcoin is shorted it negatively impacts Steem, EOS, Ethereum, actual projects trying to build utility will be negatively impacted in the short term.
The ideal situation to happen is an accelerated decoupling from Bitcoin. If Bill Gates shorts Bitcoin then in a decoupled ecosystem the money will flow to Ethereum or Steem or something which does provide utility. In that case if the ecosystem were robust enough, I would agree with Bill Gates doing the short. In my opinion money flowing toward utility is a good thing for long term sustainability of any ecosystem.
Short Bitcoin if it will make the money flow to higher utility blockchain technologies. This news and these signals confirm to me that 2018 will be the year of Ethereum.
some interesting ideas, thanks, decoupling utility coins would be good i think as well!! at least in the long term as you point out
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Bitcoin is obsolete and comparatively useless, comparing to the next generations coins, including ETH. It's so stupid that the altcoins still have no independence from this crap and are always falling with BTC every time some rich faggot decides to criticize it. I hope it dies off soon and the market stops hedging against it. Why not use Tether for that? Pretty retarded, IMO.
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Tether is Omni. Protocol ontop the BTC blockchain. Useless? Any other use of blockchain than as money? At all? Anything new after Satoshi? What is next gen so much in Eth? It is even inferior in so many directions. It is a private party of bunch of lads who created and profit convincing people that 'it is just like BTC but better'.
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What are you talking about exactly? ETH is inferior? Than BTC whose fees were about 20$ for a transaction last year? Don't make me laugh. BTC transfers is slow and expensive. It is just a prototype, the first of the kind. Yet some people still value it over the other technologically superior derivatives, which is not smart. Prove me wrong.
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Eth is inferior because: [1] it tries to do general (meaningful) computation in the blockchain. Which is insane waste ( cf.: http://www.truthcoin.info/blog/pow-cheapest/ by Paul Sztorc - extremely educational, eye-openner material. very big rarity to read such a literate analysis ), [2] it is a hierarchic project serving its founders, I always say that a blockchain needs a firm as much as a fish needs bicycle, [3] BTC just works, ETH promises to do something for years, and ... doesn't do anything. ICOs are not Eth app. Not unique feature but way to deflate Eth and to increase demand ... There is to much will into it. ... etc.
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Well, look up ERC20 tokens then, mate. Can BTC provide anything like that? No and it never will. ETH will eventually dominate thee market, as it should.
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I looked more throughly ERC20 standard. I see no diff. from Omni. Technically. Marketing effort-wise, yes. But this is extra-chain thing.
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Tether? What does Tether even do and isn't it a security?
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I have to confess, I never looked deeply how it works, however it is kept equal to 1$ at all times which provides a quick way out of volatile crypto without actually getting fiat, thus keeping the transfers instant and cheap. Without a third-party bank or whatever robbing you of your dimes.
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Tether is not a security. It is a money service business. Cf.: ''U.S. Department of the Treasury (MSB Registration Number 31000058542968).''. Full compliance. Tether is an Omni token ( comm layer) over protocol layer (Bitcoin). Legally it is a claim for USD. Like a bearer quantized digital certificate. Or electronic check. If it was an ERC20 Eth token would be praised as a 'smart contract' :) :) :) - very successful example. The only weakness of Tether is that it is not redeemable, or settle-able by the issuer or rather the 'backer'. If it was you do not need Ripple, because as an interface between crypto and fiat would be multi-trillion daily turnover business. And this will happen. Rather by some form of Omni/LN-like Tether 2.0 by other dev, than from evolution of Tether. Tether and Bitfinex btw survived several regulatory scrutiny 'attacks' - if they haven't have the hundreds of millions of USD deposited than the consequences would be freezing and dissolution of the firm and few lifetimes jail for the ppl in the org ...
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I hope that works out for you. I have my doubts about Ethereum and its ability to scale in the near future. We saw last year how CryptoKitties slowed down the entire network. The improvements that have been made since then have been incremental rather than dramatic. If EOS works as advertised, it will be a formidable competitor to Ethereum. On top of that, there is risk that Ethereum will be classified as a security, as well as tokens issued on the network by others. I hope the SEC will make a decision on that soon to clear up the uncertainty. Good luck.
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Sharting is coming
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Sharding i.e. hierarchisation of the network + PoS = typical holding structure :P
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Thank you for this nice article. Decoupling of Bitcoin from other crypto-projects like Ethereum, EOS or Steem would be a big step in a good direction. It might be a long way to overcome the BTC 1st mover momentum. What do you think will help more to accelerate this decoupling - negative pressure (like the Bill-Gates one you describe) or possitive news about higher utility of the competing technologies?
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Thank you for your important and useful participation
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Just recently a friend on here talked about the interview with Billionaires Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and Bill Gates, . He said and I quote
My reply to him
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Coins mentioned in post:
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Your amazing post @dana-edewards, I do not praise you, I am a beginner in this crypto world and I am female, I keep learning, may we all succeed,😍
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While BTC doesn't have as much utility as smart contract platforms like Ethereum or the proposed scalability of EOS/Cardano/IOTA etc. it would be wrong to say it has no utility.
Lightning Network is just starting out, but growing nicely, and already we can see the effects, with quick, low cost transfers. No coincidence that Reddit plans to re-launch BTC payments soon.
What is perhaps more interesting for the future of BTC utility is blockchain interoperability. There are now a few projects of note working towards this - ICON, AION, Wanchain, Blocknet. Its technically challenging, but at least one of these is likely to succeed, and then we have a game-changer scenario. Suddenly Bitcoin's first mover effect and still unchallenged position as preeminent store of value could be cemented.
BTC has proved remarkably resilient over the years, and still has by far the strongest community and great devs (altho arguably Ethereum has the best). The network effect is there - a lot of people have heard about Bitcoin, but few have heard about anything else. Once the masses come to crypto, what do you think they will buy first?
Im not a BTC maximalist, and technically speaking, its a dinosaur, but I'll sure be holding a portion of my portfolio in BTC.
Tldr; don't write BTC of too soon - its got some utility that will likely improve over time.
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Yes it is VERY wrong to say it does not have utility. It is like to say that money does not have utility. I'm not ideological BTC maximalist, but after Satoshi - nothing. Only younger (difficulty) clones and caricature imitations.
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I would not overinterprate the Gates´s and Buffet´s statements at all, quite in contrary. For me this is delicate psychology to drag down the price. They know that their statements could influence the price, and since they are obviously underinvested, they have no interest in regaining the 10K level again soon, which would be very bullish. So they took the right moment to give the BTC price a nice push down - it had not too much effect by the way.
Moreover, Gates is not that stupid that he doesn´t know how to short BTC.
BTC will for quite some time be the no.1 cryptocurrency.
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True. Also ... I'm sure Buffet does not understand BTC. Never had read the few pager of Satoshi. Totally misses the concept out. He's praised as super-investment genius but how many are like him? to maintain for decades XIXth century style uncle Scrooge 'strategy'. Also Gates -- okay, he's excellent for some next POTUS , but ... what are his breakthrough's in the last 30 years? Why an anonymous guy with 'capital' of few hundred dollars creates BTC but super-giant corporations which spend so much on IP landgrab, on R&D failed to bring breakthroughs? Based on that I simply disregard the opinion of people who ... totally missed it.
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whatever happened to EOS killing Ethereum?
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Or SEC? :P
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oh that. any idea what they decided on Monday?
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no. it appeared something like a FUD announcement and such a meeting haven't happened ... I have to dig deeper into this. But Tone Vays interview with Jason Seibert /
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jesus. i read it off Didi's blog. As legit as it gets if you know who that is. Been anxious to see the result since. Manh sometimes i get sick of everyone's speculation about all these crypto shit.
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Well. It was clear from the very beginning that it can not be 'extra-legal'. It forms organizations, it is formed by organizations, value transacts from here to there, tokens DO have existing definitions in the existing regulations under existing authorities - if it is not SEC it is CFTC , FinCEN in most cases and if not this trinity - FTC / consumer protection in the utility tokens sphere /. Yes, the world is not USA, but most of it is USA, and the aka West is quite in sync on this matters...
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Btw, this is pretty good synopsis. Written with lots of deep understanding.: https://10xts.com/why-we-built-our-own-blockchain-network-instead-of-using-a-public-infrastructure-like-ethereum/ . More specifically.: <<The SEC is bad, but they’re all up on the civil side.
FinCEN is CRIMINAL.
They have guns.
They will kick down your door and shoot your dog.
Big, huge, hairy problems across the entire ecosystem such that I expect the regulatory scourge to deepen over time. Remember kids, the thing about immutability of the blockchain is that everything is there for eventual retroactive enforcement.>>
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If nothing else, bitcoin offers utility as it is a way for liquidity to enter the crypto ecosystem. Most of the new money enters via bitcoin, whether from old or new players. When the utility of the crypto ecosystem increases as a whole, via working blockchain apps, and interchain operability, the utility of Bitcoin also does. This is because it can be seen as the USD of the Cryptoecosystem. Of course if things like Quash succeed, there might be not much need any more for BTC, as a tool to bring liquidity to the markets.
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I also think the future is cross-chain. Internet of chains ...
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Agreed:) Some people are even talking about Eth $15000 by 2018. Sounds too optimistic imo, but at least Eth has a very real demand side due to its commodity-like nature.
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I predict ETH will be around $10,000 later this year. I don't think it's too optimistic at all considering we could see trillions flowing in and ETH is likely to take the #1 spot.
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Not to be the devil's advocate, but since you have such bold predictions for Eth, what is your target price for Steem in 2018?
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And how much BTC and Steem tokens? Just wild-guess pls.
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Can you please elaborate on 'commodity-like nature' and what the real demand is and how it is related to its commodity-like nature. Btw if SEC dismisses it as security, still for FinCEN it is MSB, and commodity is a mine-field too.
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Ethereum is used a lot for ERC20 token. ICO and so forth create organic demand for Ether. In that regard, Ether could be seen as a commodity. I do not really care if Ethereum is seen as a commodity legally, only that it is commodity-like. What SEC/ FinCEN say and does could be influenced by the need to tax and regulated cryptos. Btw commodities can also be money, just look at gold and silver, which are the oldest kind of money known to man.
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Digital scarcities are stronger than the natural ones. On that - agreed. Gold is naturally produced under very strong cryptography with ultra-expensive randomness - as far as I remember - neutron stars collisions - but no matter how rare events, they create massive abundances. Therefor, not limited enough supply. The niceties of deflationary transactor or currency are known. Yes commodity money are here, they are good method to move 'debt memory notes' - the backbone of the single-entry book-keeping. The second of totally 4 gens of money we had/have... Back to Eth ... Yes, the ONLY use is ICOs, so far so good, for lets say Eth have found a clever self-enforcing mechanism - ERC20 tokenomics ( like Omni / Mastercoin on BTC ) = Eth blockchain conducts tokens. But, BUT ... Omni does not control Bitcoin, and Eth has strong control over its blockchain, to a degree to reform it at will, this decided by a van-full of people or less. Also ERC20-ing of ICOs is not automated but rests upon a legal-political-social infra! no.1 - the Zug, CH polity, no.2 - one law firm, no.3 - one OTC converter between fiat and crypto ... very critical infra i'd say which functions as conveyor belt for serial assembly of ICOs together with the legal orgs, lawyer and accountancy services of the firms ( why a blockchain needs a firm in first place?!, be it foundation ... ), what else under template? - manning of team pages, websites... all components. What utility those ICOs have brought to the market? What sales they make? Eth gets sales to fuel ICOs, ICOs do sales of tokens. And all this is done by non-blockchain organized people, it can not exist and operate without the dev firms? Where is the cryptic thing in these 'cryptos' at all?
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Or maybe he's selling FUD just like Dimon did and actually buying on the other side...
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When you have 50+ billion you can make your words reality.
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$50b liquidity?
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you are right. in future etherium has an ability to beyond btc
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how that come? What Eth does which Btc can't? You understand that the very idea to shovel useful computations into the blockchain is so stupid.
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Ethereum is a smart contract platform. Also useful computation is "useful" so how can it be stupid?
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Smart contract? Is it? Even single example of such a 'smart contract', please. :) And if you please a definition? I really challenge you. Will continue to explain what I mean after your reply on this...
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so my waiting of expensive BTC is waste of time?:(
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lets see if this will come true.: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-07/bitcoin-to-rally-on-consensus-conference-fundstrat-analyst-says :: <<“We expect the Consensus rally to be even larger than past years,” the head of research said in a note to clients, referring to the Manhattan conference gathering for its fourth year. The event may draw more than 7,000 people, a surge from roughly 2,750 a year ago, Lee said. Last time, when new attendance doubled, Bitcoin rose 69 percent during the conference and 138 percent in the two months afterward, he said.>> it is ONLY A WEEK from now and this in the longer run.: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@karov/bitcoin-retrodictions :p
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no.
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thank you!
your analysis is great but rather complicated to understand for a girl who is far from crypto world and finance;)
but I've catched your idea, you forecasts are optimistic, and we all wanna be rich having BTC in pockets;))
do you have it??)
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Oh, pls, do not underestimate yourself! In fact I do not dear to dispute Dana's expectation for $10k ETH by the end of 2018. That would mean >$100k per BTC :P. Not exactly optimistic nor these forecasts are mine. It is simple projection which holds tight since the beginning. On having IT, I wish to have had more ... :)
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Eth is connected to BTC? So if BTC rises, then all cryptos rise, right?
There're so different opinions about BTC's price..
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Well, competitors or not ... the tide lifts all boats big and small ... usually. It is very very hard to have really grounded opinion. The phenomenon is too new. Trends too short to confirm a pattern. I'm waiting to see if the Blue Line from the Sept 2012 'retrodiction' will hold this year too and lets see the effect of the Manhattan rally next week. So much on 'accuracy' :)
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Very useful article master @dana-edwards. Thank you very much for the information. greetings and my love for you.
@djamidjalal in indonesia.
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time will tell my friend!
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hello, I hope this is a good way to reach you...
we are a new witness and I see that you have some voting slots left over (and are voting for non functioning witnesses) would you be so kind as to help us out with one your votes?
witness name @swisswitness
https://steemconnect.com/sign/account-witness-vote?witness=swisswitness&approve=1
thanks in advance for your support
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I'm just looking to establish a position in the Steemit community, and would appreciate to find some people like me, so we can mutually support one another. subscribe @coinlocket
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It’d be fun to see Gates proven wrong. Let him short. He’s not a trader. Would make quite an entertaining event watching him lose billions betting against something he doesn’t understand yet arrogantly makes such condemning statements against...
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What utility Eth provides? Remind me pls. Aside from Cryptokittens.
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People are actually using Ethereum to do transactions. Measurable utility unless you think it's all bots. Scaling is also being solved on Ethereum. ICOs launch on Ethereum if you didn't remember. iExec is on Ethereum and V2 comes out this month. Decentralized exchanges exist on Ethereum as well.
Ethereum doesn't have to offer more utility than Steem; it just has to offer more utility than Bitcoin. In my opinion Ethereum is more useful right now than Bitcoin. I don't see why Bitcoin is useful for anything really other than to collect and hold. Bitcoin can't even do cryptokitties so even if that were the only thing Ethereum can do it i still more than Bitcoin does.
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I never argue for the sake of argument, but your statements call for 'precisions'.: [1] transactions = so do they with BTC, where is the novelty? just a copy/paste of BTC advertised as something else. [2] measurable utility, yes - money do have HUGE utility, higher than the utility of each and every separate object 'money can buy'. Backed by the aggregate of everything what's 'for sale'. But what it does more than the original / BTC? or does other way? where is the trans-Satoshi-ness of Eth? Inexistent. And is Eth registered as MSB? :) [3] Scaling solved?? How? It is NOT. [4] ICOs are 99.9% shitcoin storm. Eth does sales of ether to feed ICOs but what sales the ICO orgs do of anything but ... tokens. Where is the utility? What use - and clearest symptom of utility / use is ... sales. Ppl parting with value to get value. Decentralized exchanges do not exist, because nobody ( but the LN guys ) have ever proposed even a hint of how the simultaneity and irreversibility of txs to be done. Even theoretically. [5] ICOs more utility than BTC? I'm checking now the tech comparison between ERC20 tokenage and the Omni tokenomic solution ... up to now I see ERC20 as only MARKETING advantage, i.e. more focused business of certain people but ZERO fundamental tech difference or advantage ... again you have comm layer - tokens over protocol layer - blockchain. And BTC blockchain is less guided, possessed and is more ... spontaneous. It does not have a firm - you notice? [6] collect and hold is a big deal. Imagine you get 0.5 BTC salary each month. Your buying power increases or decreases? Holding has only one purpose - to spend more then than you can now. BTC hodling replenishes value. Once we estimated with you the 'escape velocity' of hypothetical amount of BTC - i.e. a stash which dollar value will never exhaust. It is not just hodling coin it is terrific spending coin too. [7] Can't cryptokitties? c'mon! It was years ago when I was playing with the idea of non-fungible tokens and I can tell you that it is absolutely and easily doable on Omni. And no, it won't choke the BTC network :) -- still the >1 yr challenge you to demonstrate to me Eth does more or differeny than BTC is on. Question not closed.
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