This is not Financial advice: Do not trade or invest based on this analysis.
Price
Following from yesterday's review (here) the BTC price has been churning upto the $12k area.
Unfortunately for the upside scenario this price action isn't particularly encouraging: the price is making higher highs and higher lows, but the volume or volatility of the price moves is unconvincing.
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This may just be some consolidation action around the prospective right shoulder of the inverted head and shoulders pattern, rather than fundamental weakening of the price. If so, I expect BTC to continue to trade between the area of overhead resistance (red area) and underfoot support (green area) for a few days longer.
Volume
Looking at the volume however, the average has dropped below the 6k mark (bifinex), which looking back on the historical chart, seem to precede an explosive price move.
Unfortunately, again for the bull case, the last two times this volume action occurred was prior to a move down in price from about $14,000 to $9,000 and then down from $11,500 to $6,000. The time before then however it occurred just price to a run up from about $8,500 to $17,000. So this volume behaviour doesn't really indicate future price direction, simply that an outsized move might be coming.
Bias
My bullish stance has weakened a bit over the past few days due to the unconvincing price moves. I think the bull scenario (through the completion of the inverted head and shoulders pattern) is still in play, but the price may consolidate into a triangle pattern around the right shoulder before breaking the neckline and having a bull run to $17,000.
That said I don't believe the volume will stay below 6k for long (perhaps a day or two), I then expect it to return with a vengeance: be ready.
Until tomorrow,
Bobby.
I agree with you. I wrote a piece about this as well. Give it a read if you don’t mind. I’m a bit unconventional in my strategies, but we’ve come to the same conclusion. I do not believe this growth is real whatsoever. This is money moving around, not growth.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@ctom/why-this-is-not-a-bull-market-at-least-not-yet
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Great post @ctom, very in-depth: interesting reading.
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I’m also curious as to what volume indicator that is. It looks interesting.
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The middle indicator (blue line chart) is the On-Balance-Volume indicator and the bottom blue (mountain) chart (overlain the volume) is simply a moving average of the volume data.
I prefer using volume indicators rather than lagging price indicators, as they are independent of the price action. The lagging price indicators, as you hinted at in your post, are not really reliable, as the price behaviour characteristic of the crypto market are not really understood yet.
I also agree with you that taking a higher timeframe perspective is the only way to go: as crypto is even more sensitive to news than the forex markets, therefore a lot of noise in the price action.
Looking forward to more posts from you.
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I very much agree with you. I also rely mostly on volume. I’ve started using a VCPI indicator along with PRICE/OBV. Occasionally I will use a MFI/Heiken Ashi candles. But I’m all about volume, moving averages, support/resistance, and trends. The rest of it will get you burned in this market more than it will help you.
I also appreciate the nice comment. Thanks a lot. I’m trying to find my place on steem right now.
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