Bitcoin "Technical Analysis" — Sunday Morning Musings of Meaninglessness!steemCreated with Sketch.

in bitcoin •  6 years ago 

Welcome to the Sunday morning shitpost rant Bitcoin Technical Analysis post for February 24th, 2019!

In the latest Bitcoin News: Bart Simpson's hair strikes again!

Yesterday we saw a nice uptick in the price of BTC to its highest levels in a couple of months, with the price momentarily hitting US $4,178.00 intraday, resulting in people walking around outside, looking up at the sky, to see if they could spot a piece of pie. Or the Moon.

Alas, the euphoria was short-lived.

Overnight — or in the afternoon, depending on where you live — the classic "Bart Simpson Indicator" took hold, and the markets promptly dove off a cliff, leaving everyone to scratch their heads for the 473rd time.

0914BitcoinBart.jpg
Screenshot, Source

It's a classic confirmation of this technical indicator, and we can clearly see Bart's ear starting to form, at right.

Below you can see the template we use for our analysis; in particular, pay attention to the section above the red line. Note how accurately the BTC price trend traces Bart's hair:

0914BartSimpson.jpg
Source: Wikimedia

The only substantial deviation is the early ear formation, which ultimately gives us a signal that BTC is going to be trending UP, or DOWN... or possibly sideways, but the latter only on days that end in "Y."

Stay tuned for more technical insights!

This is NOT Investment Advice... or IS it?

The above — seems to me — to be as good an explanation as any.

Ultimately, I don't really care about so-called "technical analysis," because it typically amounts to little more than "wishful thinking" and "bogus correlations" proposed by assorted hackjobs who really have little to no idea what true technical analysis actually is.

I didn't create the above to mock technical analysis as a concept, but it's an extraordinarily complex process that revolves around possibly decades of studying correlations and patterns at a micro level in an attempt to form reliable predictive models.

Looking at some graphs, declaring "this has happened before!" giving your trend a "scientific-sounding" name and calling it "Technical Analysis" is basically... bullshit. Or, at least, Bart Simpson's hair seems to be just as good an indicator as any.

0914Boat.jpg
Do you know where this ship is sailing to?

But What DO We See, Here?

However... in service of this not being entirely a "throwaway post," there IS something here for us to ponder.

These incredibly sudden and sharp price swings — typically without any broad based attendant market news — point to the unpleasant reality that huge market swings can still be instigated and created by possibly a single investor, or small group of investors.

Of course, it's a free market and "people can do what they want," and all that hooplah... but it leaves us looking at the sad reality that BTC really isn't very "decentralized" when a handful of dominant players can so thoroughly affect everyone else's reality.

Now, there's a whole other — and far more serious — post there, so I won't get into that.

In the meantime, have a great Sunday, and watch out for the Bart Simpson Indicator! Something is absolutely going to happen, next...

Thanks for reading!

Comments, feedback and other interaction is invited and welcomed! What do YOU think of "technical analysis?" Do you use it? Or do you think it's pure fabrication and wishful thinking? Do you believe cryptos actually are decentralized? Or is such a thing functionally impossible? Leave a comment-- share your experiences-- be part of the conversation!

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(As usual, all text and images by the author, unless otherwise credited. This is original content, created expressly for Steemit)
Created at 190224 11:25 PST

0913

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My expert prediction, looking at the charts:

Could go back up, could go back down. The elliot waves with trending volume and shorts hitting the key resistance in the bollinger bands. Look for the wicks, we may see a reversal. Price prediction: somewhere between $0 and $1 gazillion (gazillion with a "g").

Beat that, guys.

I'm glad somebody out there knows what they are doing! Thanks for the info!

TA is easy bro. You draw some lines, make some shit up, throw in some acronyms and science-ish words like Fibonacci and Quants, and say "probably" before every prediction.

Bart's hair is as good as any other indicator. Nice post.

Thanks... You just said "nice post" on my post. I'm honored!

Bart's hair IS a beautiful example of an "Irrelevant Correlation." It's a pattern that has happened many times; sometimes it's a "Reverse Bart Simpson." It's cool, but utterly meaningless.

Wow... what a drop $600 in a few seconds... sure am glad I have no money to buy more

Posted using Partiko iOS

I know, it's kinda scary. Sad that the big players are able to manipulate it so much...

I see this correction rather as a rejection at the Adam and Eve pattern we just built. We still have support beneath us at this 3800$ level: the 0.5 Fib. retracement, the 100 day MA, which was previously our resistance. So things could stay positive. I wrote earlier a short post about this correction and how things could continue from here on.
You can find it here, if you're interested @denmarkguy.

Cheers and safe trading!

I'm sure Technical Analysis must be very challenging in an environment where you're not analyzing natural market forces, but also the whims of wealthy asset holders who wake up one day and think *"today is a good day to screw with everything!"

You're absolutely right. TA in this space does work sometimes, but sometimes it doesn't. There's a lot of manipulation going on and even if the TA is accurate enough, it can't read people's minds for sure.
Thanks for your reply and wish you a good day!

In the meantime, life is bautiful and crypto will thrive!

Posted using Partiko Android

True, indeed. People just need to sit themselves down and relax a little...

I honestly got a great chuckle from this post. 😄

Thanks, and glad you enjoyed it!

Finally! High quality technical analysis. :D

Posted using Partiko Android

Thanks @bluerobo. It was time somebody stepped up and did it. We're still to determine the identity of "somebody," but there it is...

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