A percepção de risco está diminuindo

in bitcoin •  6 years ago  (edited)

O mercado de criptomoedas está relativamente “parado”. O bitcoin parece que está “esperando” indefinido antes de voltar a tomar alguma tendência altista ou baixista. Eu até falei um pouco sobre isso em uma postagem minha anterior:

O bitcoin está prestes a explodir

Mas aqui vou falar de outra coisa que percebi. É que aos poucos a percepção de risco está diminuindo.

Todos nós sabemos que quando o FUD está grande as pessoas vendem as suas altcoins e correm para o bitcoin por considerá-lo uma moeda mais bem estabelecida, o que diminuiria os riscos. Também porque o preço das altcoins são em grande parte uma função do preço do bitcoin. Isso faz com que a volatilidade das altcoins seja sempre maior que a do bitcoin. Então se o bitcoin está caindo, melhor correr pra ele que ele irá cair um pouco menos. E o inverso também é verdadeiro. Se o bitcoin começa a subir, as altcoins em média costumam subir mais que o bitcoin.

E isso se reflete na capitalização total do bitcoin. Por exemplo, antes de começar a crise de 2018 a capitalização do bitcoin chegou a meros 30% do total. Mas aí veio o FUD, a turma das altcoins correu para o bitcoin e hoje a capitalização dele subiu bastante e voltou a ficar acima de 50%.

Mas nesse exato momento a capitalização do bitcoin voltou a cair, mesmo que bem lentamente. Após atingir o máximo de pouco mais de 58% em meados de setembro, agora ele caiu para 51%. Isso significa que o FUD aos poucos está desaparecendo e o otimismo está voltando. E nos revela que tem muita gente disposta a investir nas altcoins. Mesmo com um cenário ainda indefinido, muita gente não está conseguindo “se segurar” e está resolvendo investir mesmo assim.

Em resumo, não sei qual será o próximo “estouro” do bitcoin, se para cima ou para baixo. E pra onde ele for ele irá levar junto todas as altcoins. Porém posso dizer com certeza que as altcoins estão fazendo a sua parte, despertando bastante interesse dos investidores, apesar das incertezas do momento. Imaginem vocês o que irá acontecer quando a incerteza diminuir!!


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