Right now seems like a good time to make a big analysis since I won't be making one on my podcast episode tomorrow (because of college midterms).
Looking at Bitcoin's 2 hour chart, there was a possible Elliott Wave 1-2 setup off the low of $8400. But as of today, that setup has been invalidated by a drop below the probable first wave at $8973 which makes the probable wave 3 count invalid.
Because of the drop below $8973, a revisit back to 8400 levels is now more probable than before. The bigger count is still valid unless Bitcoin breaks below $8400. If the bigger count holds, a wave (iii) target of $13,170-13,890 coming up to or after the halving depending on how sideways we go right now.
I have used elliott wave scanners on MotiveWave and have not found any sensible short term count since the price action recently has confused me and confused the software. I am still sticking to my long term and ignoring the noise for now.
Honestly, as long as $8400 isn't broken, we still should be in some sort of 3rd wave upwards leading up to the halving. With all of the fundamentals of Bitcoin getting stronger (Bitcoin becoming legal in India, US Fed cutting rates, etc.) added with the halving coming in 59 days, bullish sentiment should take over as the halving date gets closer and closer.
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Since 8400 is now been broken, we can now zoom back out to the bigger move from 6430 to 10500 and do fibonacci retracements. Next probable retracement is the 50% at $8225
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