View this post on Hive: The Bitcoin Fork(s) & August 1st: Don't Panic, Read This
7 years ago by eeks (68)
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We will have huge pump before September - $10K
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Thanks for a great explanation. I wish I know the Odds of what may happen? any idea?
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Until Augur has proper prediction markets live, we have to make educated guesses and also prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
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And would you expect this to have a knock-on effect to the likes of ether, Litecoin, and possibly steem too?
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I don't think Litecoin has a real future, unless Bitcoin is dead dead, despite what people have been told. It has not technological merit beyond Bitcoin's, it pumped based on adopting Segwit, which I don't think matters at all for Litecoin because there are so few actual TXes on Litecoin that there is no demand for scaling solutions -- unless again Bitcoin fails and for some reason people adopt Litecoin out of familiarity and ignore all the better currency technologies like Zcash, Monero or all the stablecoins that will be on Ethereum like Maker. A lot of Litecoin holders have been misled but such is the ways of cryptocurrency and if people don't do their own due diligence, they are liable to get burned.
I don't think disaster scenarios for Bitcoin are good for any other digital asset in the short term though, not even Litecoin, not Steemit, not Ethereum.
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Cool thanks for the detailed response here. You've got me thinking about my Litecoin holding... Maker/Dai I need to take a look into I guess!
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I wonder if litecoin would be a better bet moving forward if it could be mined by the asics that are currently mining bitcoin.
Getting the bitcoin miners to switch seems way more important than segwit.
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I have also found Jimmy to be one of the few not shrieking on either side. Segwit2x seems to be a total failure to accomplish the necessary scaling, while potentially injecting the possibility of intermediaries into Bitcoin transactions. It's fundamentally counter to my reading of the Bitcoin whitepaper, which specifically cites the efficacy of block size increases which would easily solve this issue.
The fact that one side argues against an easy solution with no clear technical drawbacks (that I am aware of) is a pretty good indicator they have ulterior motives.
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While I likely agree with you politically on this, both sides have dirty hands. SegWit as a SF seems like an inelegant solutions that increases the tech debt and yields much less on-chain scaling than is being touted with higher actual costs to economic nodes. It was not originally an on-chainscaling solution but was re-appropriated as one politically. It's all sad to to even think about.
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Very nice information. Crypto are so important to our world even though most people haven't realized yet and Bitcoin is clearly a big part of crypto for obvious reasons, the biggest one most other crypto are directly tie to its price Steem being one of them.
Thank you for putting that out. Is there a way to contact you in private? On the Steemit chat when it gets back online I guess.
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I am in one Slack (non-Steem) that takes up most of my time, as I have a fulltime demanding non-crypto job. You can DM me on https://twitter.com/EeksTheUnwise if you want to reach me and I can give you my email so we can communicate in private.
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Best advice though. Does it mean transaction during this period can get lost or delayed?
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The doge has shown itself in the charts
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waiting for this since 2014
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Thanks for the recap, I think about the forks one can look at ETH ETC, it's not as ideal but in the long run it will play out anyway. In the split day prices will fall, just be sure to have your BTC in a wallet or in an exchange which is known for the good conduct (like kraken) so you will be sure to have both coins when the dust settles.
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ETC/ETH split was a little different because Ethereum's difficulty adjustment happens much more quickly than Bitcoin's. But it is the best example we have had to date of what a split could look like.
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@eeks great post keep up the good work well done
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Great Article, enjoy the reading!
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Sorry if this has been covered else where, but is anyone expecting a big (although temporary) price drop after the fork? I've see some wild price swings in the last year. Considering the uncertainty ahead i cant imagine it not happening. And the blockchain world has been flooded by new users who arent accustomed to these kinds of violent price movements. Thats a substantial chunk of the btc community likely to panic and deepen the potential drop.
Im no expert and could be completely wrong, but does this make sense to anyone else?
This is my first reply!!
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Not bad for the 1st reply, we will see how the things goes
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oh my!! I am starting to panic a little. But on a side note, I freaking love this cat riding the unicorn photo!! :)
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Thanks for this post.
More than the price going down, I am concerned about how the wallets and exchanges I currently use will handle my coins after August 1. After going through several videos discussing the various issues, I decided to get a hardware wallet (Trezor, in my case) for peace of mind. Not to scare everyone else, but I understand that some exchanges who implement hot wallets where all bitcoin is shared across customers may be hard-pressed to release bitcoin should everyone panic and decide to move out of exchanges in anticipation of August 1's event.
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I plan to hold all my BTC off exchange in that period of time. YMMV
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Do you mean you are concerned about merely holding your coins at certain exchanges/wallets? I was under the impression the complications are tied more to payment transactions after 8/1. Poloniex claims to be able to handle the split if you sit tight. However, based on the link below, polo users may LOOSE whatever coins are in open lending accounts at the time of the fork. Who knows what will actually happen, but if you are a polo lender its worth a read.
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/6ex0ee/poloniex_lenders_beware_you_may_lose_half_of_your/
What other exchanges/wallets are you refering too?
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I'm more concerned about the liquidity of the exchanges. If everyone panics and withdraws bitcoin all at the same time, the honest exchanges who actually have the bitcoin will be okay, but others who claim to have bitcoin but in reality don't will have difficulty. We're all made to believe that whatever btcs are reflected in our exchange wallets are there. We shall see.
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I was under the impression that the bitcoin people deposit are actually there. But I just found out about the "open.btc" on the bitshares network. They apparently peg the value of a btc to "open.btc", which is what you own... not actual btc. Then I read that all exchanges do this. So when you deposit btc to poloniex, you actually own poloniex.btc or whatever they call it.
I didn't get far enough to understand why they do this, but it is an issue I was not aware of until just recently. Not sure how comfortable I am with that. But I only keep hot currency there anyway. 80% of my crypto is in cold or mobile storage.
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been reading a lot more posts on not to do transactions on bitcoin on that day just to be safe and then for for early august as well to see what the outcomes from it.
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BITCOIN MOTIVATION MUSIC
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I dont think HArd fork will happen. But if happen, the best do to is hold your bitcoins. Do nothing,
I start to follow you, very nice post. Upvote too
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I'm not sure what will happen, but I think we will see some panic in the market come august. I've sold all my BTC, and hoping to buy if the price dips. Otherwise I'm perfectly happy with not holding BTC, as there are many other alternatives who even gives a better ROI.
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Panic rarely pays in this space. I try and stay zen.
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You are absolutely right.
I sold all my BTC a couple of months ago, and I no longer intend to HODL it, but if I can make a quick buck i will make that trade ;)
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Ok, for those who are predicting a BTC drop around the fork, any thoughts on where to weather the storm or even take advantage of the turmoil?
I'm considering ETH, NXT, Omni, Steem, and/or Stratis. This is based off correlations in the past 6 months. It seems many cryptos are loosely tethered to the health of BTC (grandpa), but some seem to be more isolated then others.
On a side note:
Although I'm just a yearling and may have better results hitting my mark with a psychic... Im blown away by blockchain tech and its future. I find myself at my computer for hours on end, not even noticing the day passing by. I am completely hooked!
BTW, I replied in the wrong section earlier, my apologies.
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Conclusion:
BTC will launch like a rocket; or
BTC will sink like a no feathers duck; or
BTC will stay stable.
LOL
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Nice blog. Nice to see I'm not the only one who thinks like this. The current total market cap of all cryptos might seem high but blockchain is here to stay and will involve all our lives. I do see a bright future for everyone that's hold's their coins with a long term vision. I found this great website: https://www.coincheckup.com The site is my go to place for crypto investment analaysis and indepth coin research. Check for example: https://www.coincheckup.com/coins/Bitcoin#analysis For a complete Bitcoin Detailed analysis
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