Btc futures start on dec 18th allowing institutional money into the market.
Netscape marked the entry of institutional money into internet companies on aug 9th 1995.
Netscape was scheduled to ipo at $14 was raised to $28 just before launch. It went to $75 the first day before closing at $56 up 100 pct.
futures vs Netscape
If we consider btc futures a similiar event and the anticipation move from $5k to $10k like the offering price, bitcoin could triple in the first day before setting at $18-20k or so.
Netscape went to $174 in 4 months,almost 7x the ipo. If that happened to btc it would be about $70k by April.
Now Netscape was only $3b listing not $150b
much bigger market
But it was playing in a much smaller market than be currency market.
According to daily fx, fx volume is $4t a day vs $84b in equity volume so 40-50x bigger. 50x bigger implies btc a currency is like a $3b equity. (Netscape would probably be $5-6 b in today's dollars)
better market share
Netscape did have 80 pct share vs 55 pct for btc. However there are many more network effects in bitcoin. Bitcoins share of pure currency is likely similiar if not higher (add ltc dash, monero, zcoin etc)
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Nice analysis.
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Thanks!
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