Bitcoin TA - summary of analysts - 24. May 18

in bitcoin •  7 years ago 

Regular daily update on BTC ta analysts opinions.

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**My summary - short-term sentiment: bearish ** (last: bearish)

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  • Critical support seem to be broken as well. Further downside expected.

  • RSI is oversold on lower timeframes which suggests a bounce soon.

  • If things turn around soon it strongly looks like confirmation of longer term bear market.

  • May is usually a strong month. Lets see how it plays out in 2018.
    IMAGE 2018-04-08 20:14:56.jpg

News about the blog

  • I need to revise my 2018 long term table. I need to add a 2018 and 2019 target an be more precise on the sentiment here. Will do that after I am back in Switzerland.

  • We lunched the bounty project beta. If you are interested and you like to create a bounty on your own have a look at this post

Analysts key statements:

Tone:

  • Weekly:
    general: Sees strong similarity to 2014 but current environment is even weaker. As we haven't made it above 30 MA and did not bring the 7 MA back above the 30 MA. Instead we are approaching the 50 MA.
    In 2014 we dropped 87% - That would give us a target of 2'570. Just for awareness that this correction might not be at its end yet.
    We are just on a 2 of 9 - this looks ugly.
  • Daily: Also only on a 2 of 9. He is expecting a retest of breakout area at 7'925 and than down at least to 6'900.
    Bildschirmfoto 2018-05-24 um 10.48.30.png

@haejin:

He sees MACD to break out to the upside somewhere in June.
He sees Cup & Handle pattern. The current decline is a healthy correction from the recent five wave up move.
The pattern becomes invalidated if price of the handle price goes lower than the lowest point in the cup formation.
Bildschirmfoto 2018-05-24 um 10.25.32.png

@ew-and-patterns:

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He has two main counts.
A) We go up from here to the area of 8'400 and than in impulsive waves down to around 6'800.
Bildschirmfoto 2018-05-23 um 08.43.14.png
B) We go down to 7'700 (E) and go up from there.
Bildschirmfoto 2018-05-23 um 08.43.19.png

@lordoftruth:

EMA50 keeps supporting the bearish wave and daily Ichimoku cloud may have opened doors to further drops towards key levels around 6'600.
The 2 weekly bearish stop grabbers try to lead the price for a decline below 6'519 lows but the situation stands a bit tricky (Bearish with bullish divergence).

Todays trend is neutral. Trading between 7'402 and 8'175.

@philakonesteemit:

nonews.jpg
The bearish view, we find confluent reasons to enter near7'200 range since it hits the 0.786 fib level and a major trend line support.
Bildschirmfoto 2018-05-23 um 08.53.44.png
The bullish view, we hold above 8'087 and break above 8'644.
Bildschirmfoto 2018-05-23 um 08.53.39.png

@passion-ground:

Unless we get a bullish reversal soon, chances of a retest of the last pivot low at 6'611 and thereafter a retest of April's 6'427 low, and then lastly a retest of the current bear market low of 5'920 shall continue to increase.
Looking for a bullish 5-wave impulsive reversal to the upside to mitigate the current downtrend, and raise prospects for a most bullish 3rd wave advance. Until we see such, the bearish downtrend is likely to persist until it finds meaningful support.

Summary of targets/support/resistance

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Reference table

analystlatest content datelink to content for details
Tone Vays23. Mayhere
@haejin23. Mayhere
@ew-and-patterns23. Mayhere
@lordoftruth24. May[here]https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@lordoftruth/bitcoin-trend-series-ep-602-bearish-with-bullish-divergence)
@philakonesteemit22. Mayhere
@passion-ground24. Mayhere

Definition

  • light blue highlighted = all content that changed since last update.
  • sentiment = how in general the analysts see the current situation (bearish = lower prices more likely / bullish = higher prices more likely)
  • target = the next (short term) price target an analysts mentions. This might be next day or in a few days. It might be that an analyst is bullish but sees a short term pull-back so giving nevertheless a lower (short term) target.
  • support/res(istance) = Most significant support or resistances mentioned by the analysts. If those are breached a significant move to the upside or downside is expected.
  • bottom = -> now renamed and moved to long term table. Low 2018
  • low/top 2018 = what is the low or the top expected for 2018?

Further links for educational purposes:

*If you like me to add other analysts or add information please let me know in the comments.

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I believe we will definitely be seeing price push alot lower then we already are trading at, potentially reaching $6,500 very shortly. The next real zone Bitcoin will find any support at will most likely be around the 7k region!

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Great post.

Great analysis @femunger, @haejin is also great too, thanks guys for the continued support. Keep it up!!

Very interesting analysis. Things don't look good at all. What do you think of McAfee's prediction that BTC will hit 15k next month?

like always - there is a chance for that but the probability is much higher that we go down from here.

Several "bull" hopes are crushed. I always asked myself if I had significant cash - what would make me confident to buy btc? Am I confident that we found a bottom yet? And my answer to that would be "no". So I would wait and that leads to falling prices if too many are "waiting". But it sure will produce a significant rally based on FOMO as soon as people are confident that we found a bottom. So best thing to happen is we crash so hard to a price where everybody thinks that this must be the bottom. 5'000? 4'000? 2'500? 1'300? Ask yourself for which price would you bet all your wealth on?

Strong belief!!! Long-term holding

None one should be going all in on crypto IMO. Small buys overtime to distribute the acquisiton cost per unit. That is the strategy you shouls be promoting not this wait then go all in. That, my friend, is a recipe for disaster.

Hey Chris, great job as always. Just a small suggestion regarding the summary of targets format. It may be a tad easier to read and flow a bit more naturally if Support 1 came first in the same way that you have ordered R-1 and R-2. No big deal, but I thought I'd share... Thanks!