BTC Market Analysis

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The crypto currency market is one of the most interesting market of all-time, as a new shift in taking place in our economy. The block-chain technology is creating a decentralize economy where individuals or peer to peer such as: Individuals or Business through a block chain system match lender with borrowers creating a smart contract- without a traditional banking system. The system can work as well with business owners and customers, where the customer will enter into smart contract with the business owner to purchase the goods and services.
Now, Crypto-currency is just a mechanism of payment from the customer to the borrower or vice versa. For this reason, crypto-currency is portion of the block-chain technology or an app within the system such as the interbank app ZELLE.
Moreover, the sole purpose of block chain is revolutionize many industries. For instance, BITCOIN was created to revolutionize the banking system and help the world to become a decentralize economy and put the power back into PEOPLE. Giving the power back to the people also give the opportunity to societies or communities to be able exchange/store money where a traditional banking system wouldn’t do business.
The Bitcoin revolutionize how we think about money and how is value because of this reason many entrepreneur/ programmer has taken the challenge to build other block chain system/cryptocurrencies to solve real world problems such as: Identity Theft (CVC Coin : Civic Identity Verification), Open Payment Network (XRP : Ripple), Smart Contracts (ETH: Ethereum) and etc.
Furthermore, I believe that bitcoin is here to stay and it will become an INDEX in the cryptocurrency world. Similar to the SP500 (Stock-market index) and or the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Tracks the largest 30 companies in the world.) Moreover, when I compare BITCOIN to an index or it will become an index is for the sole purpose to explain why value of the ALT COIN (ALTCOIN: is a category of cryptocurrency alternative to BITCOIN.) will raise or fall. Explain, if the DOW is down for the day most likely other coin will fall as well.
Finally, the purpose of this article is to help educated, new investor as well as season investor in this new volatile market. The world is about to change again similar to how the .COM era revolutionize the internet. Please, understand investing in crypto-currency is very risk and you can lose all your money. Invest capital you are willing to lose. Remember, from the .COM era only a few companies survive such as: APPLE, GOOGLE, MICROSOFT,IBM and etc.
Below I will go over BTCUSD chart to understand, where the value for the crypto world is heading.

PS: THE ARTICLE IS FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE NOT INVESMENT ADVICE.

BTCUSD Monthly Chart

Let’s analyze the History on BTC in the monthly chart: IF we go to the year 2013, we can see the BTC was ranging for months between March and October from 87$ (Support Levels) to $ 148 (Resistance Levels) per coin at the Monthly candle close. However, we can also see during the period of March, 2013 to October, 2013 prices range from 6$ to 289$ per coin. Moreover, in October 2013 the monthly chart broke out of the $148 resistance levels to rally up new to levels and in November heavy pressure from buyer come in and made BTC rally to levels never seen before to a monthly candle close of $1121. If we look at the volume candles (Green volume candle mean they are more buyer than seller, making the asset more valuable) we can see heavy pressure from buyer to when in wave of the rally.

However, in December a similar situation occur as volume increase but in the opposite direction (Red volume candle mean more sellers than buyer, making the asset lose value.) due to BTC uncertain of implementation, Hack and overvaluation at the current particular time.
During this bear time BTC decrease a much as 90% from the All-time high of $1177 to $106. However, the market bought the dip because it believe BTC was undervalue at those price and close the monthly chart at $550 per BTC. Over the 2 years BTC try to find support at multiple level such as $735, $440 and $205 but the support levels didn’t hold until 205$. In addition, the levels note above became resistance level as BTC was trying to recover from the -81.45% decrease in value.
One interesting factor we can see is the BTC found TRUE support at $205 per BTCUSD. It is interesting because the $205 per BTC was the first breakout monthly candle in October 2013, before BTC made new all-time highs in November and December of the same year. Another interesting notion is that BTC consolidated from months before the breakout of between March 2013 until October 2013 and then from January of 2015 until November of 2015.

Now let fast forward to the year 2017 and 2018. Where we can see BTC breaking the previous all-time high of Approx. $1121 in December 2013 and rally to a new all-time 19,900. Similar to 2013, BTC has reprice itself due to uncertain, fraud in the crypto-currency market, government intervention and etc. Even tough, BTC is creating a similar pattern to the 2013 is not the same because it was a 2 moths rally, this time around BTC broke previous long term resistance and rally for 7 months. Below you will find different scenario for this new market setup.

BTCUSD Weekly Chart Similarities

2013-2014 Fear of Missing

2017 Fear of Missing

As we can we above, many similarities of the weekly chart. Where BTC made an all-time high and it was rejected. As buyer exited their long term positions. Moreover, we can see buyer stepping in again to try to create a breakout but it was rejected creating a higher low.
The Current state is very interesting as because weekly resistance at 8k needs to be broken and close above in order for buyer to come in and create a market rally. Also, BTC is holding the 6500k support as buyer are believing that BTC has bottom are is ready to rally. Nevertheless, I do not think BTC has bottom yet because bearish weekly volume continues to be higher than bullish volume. If we use the comparison of the 2014 of -79.34% decrease in value, will put the current market at around $3940.

We must watch the current levels as to see if volume pick up and attempts to brake the bearish channel or breaks the current weekly resistance and head towards 4500 where we have a major support level. Moreover, Using the Fib retracement from the lows before the breakout of $960 to the highs of $11,540 put the .50% retracement at 6249k, .382 retracement at 5000k and .236 retracement at 3456k.

BTCUSD Daily Chart

Finally, let’s look into to the daily chart. The daily chart is very important because we can have a better interpretation of the market sentiment. One important factor for a major market shift is when the 200 day moving average is broken. Another, factor is the cross over the 50 day moving average and the 200 day moving average. Normally, when market brakes the 200 day MA mean we are heading into a bear markets. When the 200 day is broken, market tends to decrease between 30% to 50%. The 200 day MA was broken at 9100, if price decrease 30% will put BTC at 6,370k and if prices decrease 50 % will put BTC at 4,550k. As we can see from previous charts, 4500k level represent important buying prices?

Finally, BTC is near stabilization and we should expect a consolidation between 4500k and 8000k. I personally believe if the 8,000k level is broken, a new wave should be expected.