2018: A Crypto Oddysey

It's the dawn of a new future. In December I started my Crypto Trading Portfolio (CTP). My New Years resolution was to take an adventure this year into the impossible - Financial Independence.

I'm doing this mainly as a challenge to myself, but if this was the goldrush of 1800 to be fair I would probably have packed my bags, bought a shovel and given it a crack!

Fortunes are made by new discoveries and technological enhancements: Think of the railroads, industrial era, internet, the Ford Model, discovery of flying, gold rush, diamond rush...

Many more fortunes are made during the growth phase of these events - which usually take place over a few years.

And finally there may be a Big Bang if the item is oversold. This phase exposes the real winners and losers.

Yes, you can lose some money. But there is much, much more to gain in my opinion. Here are my three primary reasons that I believe there is a high chance of success in making a fortune from the Crypto Market:

1. Opportunity

Growth=Opportunity=Wealth. It's a simple fact I believe and history supports it. Emerging Markets returns are much higher than non-emerging markets because they are still growing. However the risks are also higher.

High Growth = High risk = High returns

As an investor I am looking for high returns. Risk is something I can manage. Something that has potential to grow massively is exactly what I want: So the Crypto Market is a perfect arena for juicy high returns.

When those muppets in the mainstream harp on and on about 'The Bubble Bursting' I laugh, and here's why - we are not yet anywhere near a bubble yet: Look how much growth is possible!

And in my opinion a huge amount of growth will happen this year in 2018. If you can get in and out of the market in 2018 you are safe.

This diagram above is a little bit outdated: On 7 Jan the Total Market Capitalisation (i.e. amount invested) in the Crypto Market hit $800bn... That's not even the size of Apple, one of the survivors of the DotCom Bubble:

So a bit of perspective on the whole thing is helpful - the timing couldn't be better.

2. Right Time, Right Place

In 2011 I was told about Bitcoin when it cost $100. It got my heart racing but getting a wallet and buying coins was hard back then. After thinking about it for a couple of weeks I forgot about it.

I didn't understand the real opportunity or future I was staring at. Although I loved the concept, I didn't really SEE it. You can say that Bitcoin back then was the right time and right place, but it was the wrong time for ME.

Had I bought Bitcoin for $100, you bet I would have sold for $200 - a 100% profit... there is no way I would not have taken the profit! Look at all the events, ups and downs and TIME I would have had to sit tight on my investment to make money with Bitcoin:

Bitcoin was not the right time for me and I missed those early gains. But Bitcoin is not finished yet and all roads lead to where you should be. Now is the right time, and right place. One of my favourite sayings is 'If not now, then when?"

3. Mindset

I've been 'trading' since 2007, with very little success but a lot of learned experiences:

• Losing big in the crash of 2007 when trading without a stop loss
• Buying high selling low!
• Buying poor companies with bad management and boards
• Trading lockdowns, dishonest brokers, tricky algorithms
• Failing again and again to take profits
• Letting losses run and run and run!

Thank goodness I've always had a day job!

You can know everything about trading - signals, entry points, waves, retracement, blah blah. Heck - you can even buy this information for a fraction of your profits. BUT the fact is that when your money is on the line we turn into CRAZY PEOPLE! Fear, Panic, FUD, FOMO, highs, lows, joy, excitement, depression.

Anyone that has ever chased a trade that got away from them (I mean putting in higher and higher buy offers...) will know what I'm talking about.

My failures are the best thing that has happened to me as they have taught me great lessons. Fail forward I say!

"A Goal Without a Plan is just a Wish"

The plan:

1. I started with a modest investment of $7k in mid December (0.3BTC).
2. I will trade and invest (according to my Trading and Risk Manifesto) for 12.5 month (ending 1 January 2019)
3. Anything I gain will be reinvested until July 2018, at which point I will extract 10% of my portfolio value every month.
4. I will maintain a diversified trading strategy: 30% short-term TA trading; 60% Long Term Hold positions; 10% Fund investments/Fixed Income Investments.
5. I will trade with stop-loss and pre-determined profit taking strategies.
6. I will trade over 5 different exchanges to mitigate the risk of an exchange hack/collapse
7. I will store long holds on wallets/cold wallets
8. If I get $7k back at the end then tally-ho.
9. If I lose my $7k it will not be missed (Do not trade with money that will detrimentally impact you if lost)

At time of posting this blog my capital has doubled to $15k (1.01BTC) over 6 weeks.

This was my testing period during which time I made many stupid mistakes - this is a brutal but rewarding market and there is a learning curve. But I also got on some great runs and was able to take good profits.

My stats show that I did 274 trades in December, and 70 so far in January on Binance alone. I traded 21 different coins. I also traded on Bittrex. These stats are higher than I would like - but like I said this was a testing phase.

This month I will join another 4 exchanges to diversify my risk (KuCoin, Poloniex, HitBTC and BitStamp)

I bought BTC and ETH initially with fiat via CoinBase - this was one of the tougher parts of getting set up as initially I could not get enough capital into my trading portfolio and it took several weeks! That said it makes me even more pleased with my results!

Wallets I use are Electrum (BTC), MetaMask (Eth), Eidoo, Nano Ledger (Cold Wallet offline)

Here goes! Leave me a message if you're also building a portfolio or thinking about it. Here's to a successful and profitable 2018.