I found that based on the return distribution of bitcoin it should just skyrockets and crash randomly. That’s just do to the insane volatility bitcoin has. There’s absolutely no reason bitcoin 10x last year and then suddenly crashed. It wasn’t a bubble. I never heard any legitimate reason, why bitcoin did that. So the time in which bitcoin will crash or skyrocket, cannot be predicted.
So I created this app below where you can simulate a bitcoin market. What it does is that it looks at a list of daily returns and for every day in the simulation it selects a random return and changes the simulated price base of the random return selected. In the app you can set what time period you want to use as your list of returns and the length in years of the simulation. You can also set whether or not you want a logarithmic chat.
Simulation App: https://codepen.io/googolplexking/pen/JBPoKY
Main Blog Post: https://gravastar.io/2018/07/11/bitcoin-crashes-skyrockets-and-crashes-randomly/
It's a news of crashes.
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