BTC - daily update 2018-07-20

Yesterday i said we need more points for confirmation to be able to label this correction properly, now we got much more information and a can provide a more likely scenario. We see many bots trading, taking away many emotions which makes it more difficult to label the Elliot wave correctly.

We can see BTC moving in a channel of indecision which we could break either way. Now, a few things make we consider that the ongoing correction is wave 4 and we going to see wave 5 very soon, most likely this evening, European time. For the first, if this correction isn't going down further, we have seen a correction to the 0.328 fib zone only. This would not be typical if wave 5 would be done. After wave 5 we should see a bigger correction, at least to 0.5 fib of the whole move.
The longs are about 63% vs 37% short - so the marked is optimistic!

If we going to see wave 5 i see only a little chance of breaking through 7,800 just now. Such strong resistance should be broken by wave 3. Its possible to do it on wave 5 but unlikely.

The overall situation is very bullish but a lot of confusion and cautiousness is all over the place. For those took profits or maybe consider a entry there are different ways possible. I would play conservative and not enter just now.

1. If you are a hodler, just hodl. We gonna break resistance soon. I hodl the most of my cryptos!
2. If the incoming move will break resistance i would get in at a retest and positive confirmation in the small yellow box. You may miss out some % but you have protected your profits against a possible bear move.
3. You may wanna bet on a bear move in the short term and get in after the likely correction in the low 7,000 - 7,200 when the bottom is confirmed

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