SUMMARY:
I posted the very ominous Head & Shoulders Top patterns of ZEC/BTC, ETH/BTC, LTC/BTC and others and stated that something is approaching to cause these very massive bearish patterns. Here are the H&S charts again:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/altcoins-and-bitcoins-update
I want to share the longer term projections using Elliott Wave counts to show that it too signals that something ominous is approaching. We all know of the Wave IV (green) bottom I'm awaiting to catch the wave V (green). However, once that is complete, a MASSIVE correction in the form of A,B,C (red) is due. Could this portend the replacement of BTC as the king of cryptos? I don't know. I do know this: A news or an event or a reason of some type shall arrive to justify the forecast.
you will like this. BCC(Bitcoin Cash) added as a pricing currency and trading pair in two places.
https://www.viabtc.com/announcement/detail?id=10
https://www.bitstamp.net/article/bitcoin-cash-update/
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I only knew about viaBTC. Thanks for the info. I also noticed that BCH was first to turn from the downtrend and has lost less value than BTC.
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Thanks @haejin, looking at the stats on https://www.worldcoinindex.com/trending/overview I can see that Nexus, Hempcoin, Dopecoin and even Cannabis coin (amongst other coins - but not as long term as the ones I have mentioned), are all up over the last 7days.
Could this be a sign of some people flocking to these coins as a safe haven or are these coins just late in being influenced by the BTC larger wave iv correction?
If you have any time please could you do an analysis on CANN, I am considering converting to dry powder, but not at a loss, so will either wait for a small rise and sell or hold through the storm of wave IV.
Thanks again for all your knowledge sharing, your posts and new videos are fantastic.
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Great comment. But you missed NEO. It's big. It pays dividends (GAS) and its taking on ETH. It's also China friendly and people will realize that it would be actually supported by the Chinese government.
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Hey @vimukthi looking at the markets on the link I shared, NEO is down over the past 7days and 1month.
The coins I mentioned caught my attention as they have all been around for more than 1 year and were all up during this correction period of BTC.
However since my comment yesterday I can see that they have started dropping so could just be that they were delayed in being affected by the BTC correction.
@haejin please if you have time could you comment on this. Thanks again for your brilliant posts.
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NEO had already fallen and has been getting bullish by the time the BTC bear popped up. NEO haven't had any DAPPs launched. NEO is building great support. It's a similar scenario with Monaco and WTC. They are all undervalued compared to their competition. They are also new. So more people will get on board in the future.
You should research the way NEO team handled the ICO ban incident. (They just chilled and went along like any other day.) I'm also interested in Komodo which dipped thanks to FUD and terrible marketing/presentation before the BTC bear.
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I have a relative % of NEO, OMG, and MNC so I hope you are right :) Also been watching Komodo
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So sad looking at the BitcoinDark(BTCD) gains. Waiting for an another day or two to start buying. You have a great watchlist. Add WTC to it. It's a really great undervalued product.
Also Monaco is (MCO).
It's nice to chat with you. Had waaaay too many idiots for the day.
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@haejin When you say VI bottom is approaching, when and where di you see the VI bottom?
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Wave IV first stop could be around $3,000; however, if sell pressure is high, it could be $2,600 to $2,000
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What is a strategy in this case? Buy half at 3000 and then if it goes further down buy the rest? @haejin
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absolutely fascinating!
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my friends hate when i bring up this possibility, but at this point iv'e learned anything can happen. it truly is an art, and we all appreciate the challenging thinking!
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Your friends and you = A Fractal of Plato's Allegory of the Cave
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@crypto-investor what do you make of this analysis?
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Ominous prediction indeed. Thanks for the indepth video!
I am no technical analyst and know next to nothing about Elliot Wave Theory, but I always looked at the historical graph of prior 'bubbles' and compared them to the current graphs. When I look at those bubbles, generally after they burst the price drops down to approximately the previous bubble's top. I too expect some kind of massive correction to come, but it seems to me that if we are entering another long, down period, we should be levelling out at around $1200 at the lowest? Your latest C seems placed a lot lower than that and the downturn seems a lot steeper than how it ended up with previous bubbles. I'm curious to know why you, or Elliot Wave theory, consider this 'bubble' to be different from the past ones? Thanks in advance!
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It's the same as the past bubbles. No different. Look at the tulips...they're still around for about $1.25 per tulip.
The wave C on this is chart often reaches the prior wave 4 of same scale. That's why it's sub $500; in fact most likely prices will drop to $120.
Could that be a phenomenal time to buy? YES! WHY? After every ABC correction, there is a trend change.
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You're making me nervous! But I have my doubts. At $120 per Bitcoin and 16 million circulating coins that would bring the market cap to below $2 billion. I'm sure if Bitcoin drops this big the entire market will drop alongside it, but today it seems very strange to imagine a Bitcoin market cap that is so low, especially when you look at the entire market's size.
I know about the tulips but I think the comparison does not hold as there are too many intrinsic differences between tulips and bitcoin. I prefer the comparison to gold which holds up much better I believe.
Anyway, what I will be taking away from this, is that I will take a good portion of profits at around the $6500-7000 mark and secure those away. And probably keep the rest in, just in case you're wrong! I am a believer in bitcoin and blockchain, but I also believe that many of the top investors are probably using the same techniques as you are. As such it could very well turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy - it only takes a small percentage of the market to move the entire market as a whole.
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EpiC reply.
I'd say it's the chart of the year.
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But the gold graph, in comparison, looks nothing like it...
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Gold to $1,500
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But today, after I drank my coffee and applied Tasseographic analysis and according to that I get this:
So I'm not sure..
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120? Or 1200? @haejin
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As low as $120
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Here is a Log Scale Chart of Bitcoin with same projection:
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So we buy at this dip sell at the next top or near it then will have a massive breakdown to 120$/BTC. Unbelievable stuff. I don't believe it.
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That's what the EW count shows. I know...I almost got pissed at my self! I couldn't believe it! I was also shocked to see all those /BTC Head & Shoulders Top patterns.
But, I adhere to the TA.
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120$/btc may mean the end of everything crypto.
What could be a strategy to profit form this if such a thing is possible @haejin?
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Am I the only person who has been expecting this to happen all along? I was practically counting days till this happen. I feel euphoric reading these stuff.
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Youre seeing it as an opportunity to buy.
But something like this is disruptive.
There may not be a recovery.
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I don't want to see BTC recover. It's a terrible coin with terrible community dragging down the rest of the Blockchain space. I want cryptos to be free from BTC. The fundamentals have been against BTC for some time and It has only maintained its position through unholy methods and first mover advantage.
I'm waiting for a day where people see BTC for what it is (a relic) and abandon ship for better products. even a tiny market cap coin like https://zensystem.io/ is better than BTC. I want currency competition and BTC is in the way.
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You're seeing this from a tech standpoint. Right now adoption rate is less then 1.5%. We need more people to adopt cryptos.
Bitcoin is the pillar and the only one they know.
People called computers IBM for many years before they started to call it properly.
Also those super duper coins you're counting were made that way as people learned from BTC experience. So respect!
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I have respects for satoshi's vision but not for BTC which was a mere prototype. Coins like Dash were made because BTC couldn't do shit and it wasn't going anywhere. Lot's of coins were made in response to BTC than because of it. Of course BTC opened us doors. But so did Command Line Interface and steam engines.
Some technologies like IOTA, NEM, Maidsafe have nothing to do with BTC.
This is the age of internet. People discover things faster and BTC doesn't give a lot of positive first impressions. Where do people turn to; better coins. #2 reason blockchain isn't mainstream is BECAUSE BTC is the dominant blockchain. Steam engines and fast-efficient railway systems can't coexist. One has to go.
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The future....
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LMC update?
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"A news or an event or a reason of some type shall arrive to justify the forecast". What if forecast is wrong?
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Then it's wrong. And I have been wrong. I have not a crystal ball. But I did correctly call for the Wave III top and now the Wave IV bottom approaching. I could be wrong, yes. But IF that purple Wave V completes, I'll be 100% OUT of CRYPTOS and money in the BANK and not exchanges. In fact, I'll do this way ahead of the Wave V (purple) topping. For me, Wave five's are always profit taking waves.
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That's the difficulty. Getting off the exchange into fiat bank account without incurring capital gains tax liabilities.
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Give to Caesar what is Caesar's.....but I say Caesar take too much!
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I am not trying to avoid the tax, but it's only liable when I withdraw.
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Ceasars always do ;)
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If you are wrong, we might be just behind the peak of wave V. Or peak of wave V, which you drew is in fact peak of wave 3. Look at the years 2008-2013. Candles in that period are so small, you can't even see them. Does it mean that in the early days there were no significant ups and downs? Of course there were (you can see them looking at logarithmic chart here: https://www.tradingview.com/x/w61h2hLH/) But from 2017 perspective and in the proportional scale chart they are invisible. And you do not consider them when you label the chart. If Bitcoin survives next 10 years, than 3000-5000& fluctuations may seem invisible and insignificant.
It is easy to explain past price fluctuations with some events, that have already happened and it is easy to label the historical chart, because in fact when the realty does not fit the EW theory, you adjust your image of reality (in fact you should go find or develop a better theory because the one you are using is falsified). But lets suppose the EW theory is right. When you can's see the future part of the chart it is even harder to put the labels and tell which wave we are surfing. So as a trading tool EWT is OK, but I doubt its prophetic qualities. I know there is quite high possibility of going back to 3000$. Check this this analysis: https://steemit.com/dtube/@quickfingersluc/k0nozzc1. Its is not so classic TA, but this guy has extremely efficient trading method (approximately 95% of his trades is profitable and he earns huge percentages).
Main present function of Bitcoin (store of value) and the fact that Bitcoin is resistant to centralized manipulation will make this cryptocurrency stay for a while. I am thinking about 1-2 year perspective. That is my guess. There is very little risk of total hack or sth which could drag the value close to zero. Some brilliant altcoins may pop up but wider adoption takes time. How long has it taken ethereum to get close to bitcon? Years. All altcoins at the beginning are just speculative assets. Bitcoin have this huge advantage of 10 years of history and reliability. That is just priceless.
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great analysis, thanks
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I think I understand you. But I don't agree. My rate is about 88%; so @quickfingersluc seems to have a 7% edge. However, that is irrelevant. What I'm focusing on are the EW counts. And yes, much of it depends on my perception, emotional maturity and the level of failure experiences. Failures are better teachers than successes and I'm certain @quickfingersluc won't disagree as I"m sure at 95% success rate he must have enormous tonnages of it from which he he learned.
So, my EW counts are mine and are rooted in my experience, skill, perceptions and so let's see how it pans out. Also, I put my money where my mouth is in that I have much skin in the game.
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His method it tottaly different than your. He is reactive position trader. He do not use EWT, any indicators but volume (this is not naked trading too). This sound weird, but his method is crazy simple and efficient. Check it out, because your classic method is predictive and his is reactive.
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With the codes of common courtesy you should not recommend a seasoned analyst and trader anyone else
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Haejin said once that if I knew a method more effectiove than I should have shared.
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Also, I don't charge a dime for my analysis. I intentionally keep it free and provide on demand analysis to anyone who needs it. It's my way of giving back because I have plenty and feel my tonnages of failure lessons can perhaps help others. As I've said on my blog posts, I'm here only to help and do no harm.
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Its actually understood that you want to give something back.
I hope people ilke this dont exhaust your patience soon. I dont know about others but I am learning a lot form you.
Thankyou @haejin.
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Here is the Log Scale Chart, with same projection; thus not ignoring any peaks from the genesis stage of Bitcoin:
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This looks interesting. Looks like wave V is in its early stage, comparing to I and III.
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Not yet for Wave V. Wave IV needs to finish and is in session now.
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Oh, wave (V), It's in late stage. So wave v of (v) shall start after this correction finishes.
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Yes, I was refering to the chart above.
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Alt-Coins are not speculative. Maybe you haven't really done any in depth research in crypto space. If you do you'll realize that in few years (given that USD stays relatively stable) BTC will worth less than $1000. Even BCH is a better long term hold.
Try researching Dash, MaidSafe, NEM, NEO and you'll realize BTC isn't a good bet. Blockchain is a tech; not a gold replacement. BTC is like Netscape, Nokia, Yahoo! Myspace. It is too old and has too many problems and ZERO governance to solve them.
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I did my research.
Can you name any working dAPPS based on NEO or NEM, that have thousands of users?
Have you ever payed for sth with DASH? Have you ever transfered some money to your friend using DASH? I guess if it is a currency, this is its main purpose. If you havent then DASH is just trading speculative instrument.
Alts you mentioned, are at the moment speculative, trading assets, which means they have not developed any real life functionality yet. Plus they are much less reliable than Bitcoin (shorter history) and they are mach more volatile.
Of course you can earn 1000% in a year on them, when you are a trader, but this in not the case.
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Are you kidding me! NEO is only starting and NEM is the #2 crypto in Japan. I've been using Dash and I've never used BTC for anything other than trading pairs.
BTC had negative merchant adoption for the year while Dash is growing super fast. https://discoverdash.com/ They are getting about a dozen new businesses every week.
BTC has higher than VISA Tx fees. Transaction times can even take days while Dash (and PIVX) offer 1.3 second transactions for almost 1/100th the cost. BTC has ZERO governance while many coins have built in governance structure. BTC community is toxic, full of censorship and doesn't even stick to its promises. BTC has no privacy functions. SegWit can compromise security and has done little to solve the scaling issue. Year 2017 had negative BTC merchant adoption which had NEVER occurred in any popular crypto.
BTC has no solid future roadmap. It has no Ease of use features such as user names. All these problems have already been solved by other coins and anything BTC can do, Alt can do better.
This is the objective reality of BTC. Either you weren't aware of the facts or you are just a retard. I'm just stating the facts.
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I am a retard.
You are agressive and subjective. Go discuss with yourself.
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Nice I won.
To spice things up can I dare you to lockup your BTC (at least 50% of your portfolio) for 3 years.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3yoa47/you_can_now_create_op_hodl_address_to_lock_your/
Buy in a dip and lock it for 3 years. I dare you. I don't even think you have guts to do this. If so upload a proof that you locked up a significant portion of your cryptos for 3 years.
If you can't do this it means you don't trust BTC as much as you claim. Personally I've never held BTC (except in tradings for brief periods of time) and I will never hold or invest in it.
I mine Dash, ETH and XMR(with XDN merged mining) on my laptop.
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how long do you think this correction will last ?
thx
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NO Telling. But it's not painful at all if you're pretty much out and on the side lines waiting.
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im out just like you are ...just messed up a few times playing bounces ...but done and waiting for signal of reversal if it ever comes...
thanks for all the great post and videos ..
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haejin
if Russia is ok with crypto then we might see a reversal ..
https://www.coindesk.com/russian-government-minister-impossible-ignore-cryptocurrencies/
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market bouncing nicely off the russia news
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I believe these events follow the waves and not the reverse. That isn't arrogance but another way of saying that a news or event shall arrive to justify the forecast.
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Which exchanges allow you to get into USD after selling cryptos?
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Bitfinex
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I think many do...but QuadrigaCX is one. Probably more useful for Canadians like me who will want to get into Canadian $ though. Not many cryptos available, just BTC, ETH, LTC, BCH. On the plus side they seem very reliable, don't really get some of the horror stories about problems withdrawing, whether crypto or fiat.
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you are a great resource my friend. massive profits to you
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@haejin - im interested to know your buying strategy for the bottom of wave IV - i know you are partial to laddering technique so i suspect you will be using that from 3000 - 2000?
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Yes, I'll be laddering but the exact price points are not decided. Not until EW waves become more defined.
I'll be posting my ladders and then posting in real time any rungs that get filled. No one will be able to miss it.
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How would I know what points to ladder on DASH,ETH,ZEC, BCH,LTC? Things occur so fast, will I have time to do his?
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Metropolis is scheduled for sept 18th, think it is a good time to reinvest in ETH?
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Soon, I'll post update on ETH tomorrow.
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