BTC VS BCC
With the impending User Activated Hard Fork of Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash happening in about an hour. Here are my current observables.
- Alt coins are all in the trashcan, people are dumping them to acquire BTC to get their share of the split coins.
- Exchanges have a shortage of BTC for loans, therefore we are seeing record loan rates, 4%+ all day long, daily!
- Watch for a sharp rise in the majority of Alt Coin starting Aug 2nd as people "buy back in"
What do I think is going to happen? Very simple. BTC is the grand father of all coins. There is no dethroning it only replacing it. BCC (Bitcoin Cash) does not have what I consider the "right stuff" to replace BTC. I see adoption of BCC limited to those that don't want to pay transfer fees because they make LOTS of transfers. Potentially the largest mistake made was not implementing SegWit with BCC. Miners won't be supporting it because miners like to make money on transfer fees. A select set of miners will mine BCC to dump the coins and secure the network.
I believe were going to see a "race to the bottom" on the price of BCC as it hit exchanges, The tradable futures initally started at $900 or (.35BTC) are now down to (.1BTC) ~ $270. Again, I believe this will be a race downward, people off loading BCC in exchange for BTC.
Think I'm wrong? Let me know in the comments below and I'll be sure to respond.
Just my 2 Satoshi.
--IceBurst
Image Credit: CoinGecko.com
What do you think of the example of the Ethereum fork? Ethereum has the support of founder Vitalik Buterin, the Ethereum Foundation, and all the media buzz, but Ethereum Classic remains the 7th most valuable cryptocurrency.
Why can't BCC do as well relative to BTC as ETC has relative to ETH?
If it does it will become the #4 cryptocurrency.
I welcome BCC as a diversification. Two plans can be better than one.
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Your right in the fact that ETC and Eth was a very successful spin off. However the spin off was partial due to a network attack. Recall that about $50m in DOA token were siphoned off in a recursive attack. The movement to Eth leaving ETC in the wake also added the PoS function to live past the PoW point. Of course many of the big dogs moved forward they were large stake holders and they benefit from the PoS without the need for hardware which increases the value of the coins through dilution.
I do understand your points, I wouldn't say you compared Apples to Oranges because your comparison is much better than that but maybe more like comparing for two grapes to make two different wines, they are all wines at the end of the day but the reason for your blend of grapes to make a new wine was for different reasons.
As I mentioned I would be a much larger supporter of BCH if they had implemented SegWit instead or in addition to increasing the block size in an attempt to move more transactions.
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i think you may have some correct statements here. lets see the outcome
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I tend to agree. It's going to be hard to find buyers of BCC at the fork price, so there is going to be a massive race down. However, that many coins, at some point they will hit a floor. Ok, they may well hit it really fucking hard, spilling pieces of bone and blood all over the place, but at some point someone is going to mop them all up and is then going to want to see them rise. I think if there was nothing behind BCC, there would be little support for it. And when you realise who's backing it, I think there will be a groundswell of support. If you don't dump in the first 20 minutes, its probably a long term hodl.
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I think you're right in that there will be a massive sell-off of Bcash but I think about half of those people will go right back in and buy it back at bottom prices. Plus some people will hold it to see how it plays out. I don't think Chinese holders will be selling it off. I see btc going down also.
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