Each attempt to move higher or make a correction upwards is being sold off and the drops are getting worse and bigger with no end in sight. So this is typical panic selling. Now don't automatically think this is good because when everyone is bearish it will just be a matter of time until we rally up, it doesn't work that easily. This market is quite unique, it's based mostly on future expectations and believe. There are not many fundamentals to go on so it's mostly an emotional market, because of that we tend to make extreme moves to the upside (2017) and this year to the downside.
The bear flag of last week has even overreached it's target after it has already made a big drop since we broke the 6K support. Alts are taking very big hits as well at the moment. We had some decent bounces, but they are slowing down as we speak and the chances for a V shape low (on the low time frame) are almost gone again. Because of the big drop we made since the 6K broke, we really need that relief rally (big V shape rally) to even start to think of a low being set. Many people are hedging their crypto assets by shorting Bit(coins). Until these start to close these shorts, we can't say that the low has been set. How can we know when this will happen, if we start to see a very big, fast and high volume rally up. In other words a V shape low.
But don't mistake this for being 100% buying power because it's not, but it would be a first very big step forward. We just made a low to 4200 and bounced up to 4450, which could have been the start of a bigger correction, but just at the previous ones it started to slow down again and go sideways, indicating it will be a matter of time until we make another drop. I don't think these are people shorting it but probably people who are selling because of all the uncertainty at the moment. Nobody can pinpoint a low since we don't have any real fundamentals to go on, so it's more guessing what the other person thinks it's worth and if it has a future or not. Moments like these make crypto believers very uncertain since there seems to be no end to this drop. Making them doubt everything they know and read until now. "Were those Bitcoin -0.87% skeptics right all along?" "Have we all really been fooled all these years?" I have been getting questions like these the past days. This is normal behavior and i wish i could say don't worry, the low is very close now but i really can't. I have seen several bear markets in my life since the 2000, but as mentioned earlier, this market is unique. There is no way of telling what levels can be reached.
For now it is clear that each move up is being grabbed with both hands to sell their coins, which we can see in the shape of these bear flags and wedges we have seen the past week. So far we almost every bounce from the lows has been around 250 points, so it's safe to say we need a bigger bounce up before we can think this might be over. The current bounce we made gave the opportunity to make a low for at least the coming days, but from the looks of it we might make another wave down. The 4000ish level can be tested as well, rather see it stay above the 4050/4100, showing some inpatient buyers wanting to get in (who do not want to wait for the 4000 or lower levels). We have resistance levels around 4500 and 4700 now.
I have no real targets to go on now, the bear flag on the right has been over reached already. The target of that blue triangle is more difficult to pinpoint, because it's difficult to say if we need to use the log chart or the normal one. Until now i have never used it but at current levels and using patterns from the 6K/10K zone it might be the first time to do it. However, this panic selling tells me the market is not really thinking in log charts. Feels -8.29% more like 100 points now is just 100 points and not almost 2.5%, where 100 points at 6.500 was just 1.5%. When not using a log chart, the target of that blue triangle is around 4.000. Tether is also dropping again, which creates even more uncertainty in the market and it seems the US is doing another investigation into the Bitcoin' manipulation.
For me it's quite simple now, until we see a bounce of 400/500 points, i won't be thinking the low has been set. To be clear, all the levels i mention, is based on the USD exchanges like Gdax. These are not times to be hoping but making sure you have a plan, to prevent yourself from making emotional decision. Whatever you do, do NOT make decisions based on: "we have dropped so much already now we MUST go up again". Before i forget, maybe we should thank those idiots at the top with their BCH fork, which might have been the catalyst for this crash. Showing the world how a decentralized market/coin can be so easily played with
great update provided its fully detailed and interesting to read so thank you for sharing :))
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