Q&A about the state of the global economy, stock markets and what this means for bitcoin and crypto

Question & Answer

Q- US stock market at record highs. Everything is peaches and cream right?

A - Nope. The outlook for risk correlated markets is less than encouraging given where we're at in the cycle.

Q - Where are we exactly?

A - There's still quite a bit of fragility in the global economy and investors no longer have the benefit of meaningful central bank accommodation or government stimulus to cover it all up.

S&P500 TOP AND POSSIBLE IMPLICATION FOR BITCOIN

Q - Why not?

A - Because that ship has sailed. All of that has been exhausted over the past decade in an effort to prop up global sentiment by way of an unprecedented government induced strategy promoting a reckless incentive to buy stocks.

Q - So stocks no Lambo now?

A - No!

Q - We go lower?

A - Yes!

Q - How much?

A - I think 25% in the S&P 500 is conservative. This would take us back to 2015 high territory.

Q - What does this mean for Bitcoin?

A - Depends against what?

Q - Well?

A - I think bitcoin could suffer against the US Dollar and traditional safe haven assets this time round. I think it will outperform as a safe haven within the crypto space.

BITCOIN ON THE CHARTS

Q - Anything people in crypto are not considering with respect to the outlook?

A - Many people out there fail to recognize that as much as bitcoin was born out of a rejection to the system, it has also benefited tremendously from this very system it rejected. It's important to remember that bitcoin's entire lifespan has come at a time when there has never been a better environment for something like this to succeed. This is what an unprecedented, extended period of low interest rates will do.

It's very possible over the long run that bitcoin manages to outperform when we see periods of sustained risk liquidation (we have yet to see one since bitcoin's inception), but at this point, I don't see that happening if global equities come crashing down.

Q - So where could we be headed and what are the important levels?

A - We've seen very strong support on dips below $6,000 but we've also seen a sequence of consecutive lower tops in 2018, with the market forming a triangle that shows a clear contraction in range. Given that we're still in a downtrend, given the range contraction warning of imminent volatility ahead, and given the already mentioned risk to global equities, it wouldn't be a surprise to see a sustained breakdown below $6,000 that could take us towards $3,000 before it tries to find its feet again.

If however it wants to hold up and assert as a real safe haven alternative asset right now, it will need to get back above the July peak (previous lower top) at a minimum to even suggest this as a possibility. Until then, the trend remains very bearish.

Q - What crypto projects do you like?

A - 1) I like projects with a product use case right now or something I can see as offering a real value add in the future. And when I say use case, I mean use case for me and not some use case I have nothing to do with. Steemit is a great example, as I am using and it is adding value without me even needing to rely on the decentralized technology part of it. 2) I also think stable coin projects are also interesting, given that they are truly needed to get people more interested in transacting exclusively in this space.

Q - Where can we catch you?

A - I'm getting started with a daily live stream which should be fun. I'll talk about currencies, cryptocurrencies, life, adhd music, and anything else. I will be streaming on various platforms and am trying to feel out the best time of day. I'll have a better idea in the days ahead. Stand by...or sit if you are tired and want to wait. 👊😎

END