Could this type of pattern play out on Bitcoin?
The previous cycles are just about out the window at this point.
The price never went as high and it's last much longer compared with previous bull markets.
There was no blow of top and that likely means no 80% decline.
Which means this may be a super-cycle...
A cycle that extends almost all the way to the next halving...
Could it play out like this:
(Source: https://twitter.com/CryptoPatel/status/1494651286335426560/photo/1)
The next halving takes place in early 2024, which would mean a bear market would be pretty short lived if the peak is in 2023...
What do you think, is something like this possible?
Thanks for the information
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now btc is little bearish. it is in correction phase
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My guess is that the halving cycles aren't going to dominate the price any more. Basically, from 2009-2013 we saw a price multiple of many-thousand X, from 2013-2017 it was 20X, and from 2021 it was 3X. At this point, I think the halving cycle has lost its kick and BTC has to prove itself on its merits.
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I think there is some truth to this but I also do think there will continue to be spikes around the halving events for some time to come still, though as you astutely mentioned, these spikes are getting smaller and smaller.
I think a major reason why these halving events are having less of an impact is 2 fold...
Firstly - the law of large numbers is coming into play now, IE it's much easier to move something with a market cap of $20 million than it is to move something with a market cap of $600 billion.
Secondly - miners are now able to hedge using futures, options, and loans to where they don't have to sell their mined bitcoin every day. This makes a reduction in miner income to such a drastic driver of the price because they already were selling less than they were previously.
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Upvoted! Thank you for supporting witness @jswit.
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It’s still bullish!
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Everything is possible, that is what is great about crypto, it is unpredictable and so far has always managed to break out above its ATH every cycle, at least BTC has.
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This post has been upvoted by @ehpothik
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