BTC Bull Market occurs every 4 years
If you go back and look at history, the biggest bitcoin bull markets occur roughly every 4 years.
We had one in 2021, 2017, 2013 etc.
That means the next one should be in 2025, which is a long ways away, right?!
Right!
However, the lows and the start of those bull markets tend to happen well before the peak.
If we go back and look at when those bull markets really began, it is more like this:
(Source: https://twitter.com/AurelienOhayon/status/1607901375320522753/photo/1)
As you can see, they really began in 2019, 2015, 2011 etc...
Which means the next bull market is likely to start in 2023 given this backdrop.
The peak will be in 2025 or so, but the start will likely be in 2023.
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That chart has BTC rocketing up to 800K. I guess anything is possible but to some respect you would think people would dial down their expectations after this past stunted cycle.
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Yea I don't expect that price to be hit during the next bull market, though anything is possible. I am looking at that $100k number as my target during next bull market, personally.
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If we go sub 12K I'm just going to punch out of most of the Bitcoins at 40K and rotate heavier into altcoins at that point. $40K might be pretty low but I have been served well being heavier in DOGE, Cardano, etc previously. There will be other stuff that gets hyper inflated as well that people will fomo hard on.
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I think the more important part of that chart is showing how the price tends to bottom roughly a year after its peak.. which is more or less where we are now.
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All this is true and a good historical indicator and I started licking my chops at some of the prices stuff has gotten to but also I have been coast to coast in 2022 and people are hurting bad financially. The big money is taking a beating in their other assets as well most likely. Maybe they are deep in Tesla and Coinbase stock and had their crypto holdings sitting on FTX and then bought two more properties in Sacramento and are punching holes in the drywall and have to sleep in a straight jacket now.
It's brutal out there so getting legitimate flows back into crypto isn't something I'm expecting for at least the next few months but even a year plus time.
People are going to be paying $10 for a dozen eggs soon the way things are going.
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Agreed, though it won't take many flows coming into bitcoin for it to stop going down, it just has to run out of sellers, which I think we are probably close to doing...
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I think typically this would be the case but suddenly when they realize a dozen eggs ends up being $10 / dozen people are getting pressed harder than any previous cycle. 2015 well hell. 2018 wasn't fun, 2022 was the people who run Biden. People are gasping for breath from all these scams and over reach. We will see what happens but to me Litecoin and Monero and the Hive Backed Dollar look the best to me.
I am licking my chops at some other stuff as well but some of those other things can always get pressed and challenged even more. Once people are losing their jobs at an even faster rate things are going to get extremely bad and when people's equity in their properties continues to erode but food prices keep going way up they are going to feel worse and worse.
Not a doom and gloom guy...... Crypto is the ultimate Matrix Liberator but most time it so wrong. Even a lot of big guys are walking around with their teeth kicked out right now.
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