Check out the similarities on these charts of bitcoin over the past 4 years:
(Source: https://twitter.com/ArminVanBitcoin/status/953329915235102729)
Do you see any patterns?
Over the last 4 years (including this year), it looks like the price of bitcoin has taken a dive in the middle of January every single time.
In the 3 previous years, that was ultimately the low for the next 3 months (at the very least).
Some are saying that the selling has to do with the Chinese New Year, and how Asia is a lot of the trading activity in bitcoin and for that reason, there is a lot of selling due to people taking money out to buy gifts etc.
Whether that is the reason or not, I am not sure, but there does certainly seem to be some seasonality to the trading activity of bitcoin.
Will the middle of January turn out to be a short term bottom for prices again this year?
Time will tell, but there are certainly still a large number of people calling for much higher levels in bitcoin this year, which ultimately are representing a higher and higher percentage return as prices drop.
Which means to me, the risk/reward is getting more and more in favor of putting money to work here.
Each person must make that decision for themselves and not invest more than they are willing to lose, but for me personally, I just picked up some more bitcoin under $11k.
Stay informed my friends.
Follow me: @jrcornel
I believe this pattern has something to do with tax seasons. If you sell at the start of January, you have a whole year before you have to pay the capital gains tax on the profits, which leaves traders with plenty of time to put that capital to use and make even more returns.
Doesn't that make sense?
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Yep, I am just surprised if it is partly due to tax related selling, we don't see a drop closer to the start of the year. For example on the first couple days of January?
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Woah! You may have solved this riddle...
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Yeah could be a reason. Everything goes in cycles and trends and by using Elliott Waves along with chart pattern analysis you can make pretty good predictions.
Here's some value for people that are stuck in these coins:
IMPORTANT Coin Updates (BTC, ADA, BTS, EMC2, ETC, GNT, SBD, STEEM, XVG)
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@benkalashnikov/important-coin-updates-btc-ada-bts-emc2-etc-gnt-sbd-steem-xvg
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https://steemit.com/crypto/@trainingbrah/xby-wants-to-go-up
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Bitcoin is dying and its dragging the entire market down with it. The markets are literally joined at the hip with BTC, and when BTC falls because people have realized how slow and unreliable it is, the larger market ( the new money, people who have been in the game for less than 5 months) panics as they believe that bitcoin IS the market, and if bitcoin fails, then everything else does. This is part of the issue when people like Warren Buffett go on record saying that "Bitcoin is a bubble and will burst" That part is true, for the most part, not many people are willing to pay $36 for a transaction, especially one that takes an hour or more to confirm, and even more so when the developers make little attempt to fix the BTC network -
But when everyday people hear things like this is causes a massive amount of irrational fear...coupled with news from South Korea which was false, as well as news from traditional outlets that claim the market and Bitcoin are constantly dying. We risk going into a free fall in prices within the next few weeks if people don't stop spreading false information. The market dropped by 30% just on false news and an assumption that Korea MIGHT POSSIBLY COULD BE MAYBE be banned from the markets. What would happen if over a 3 day period Fox News and CNN falsely reported that "Bitcoin" was going to be banned in the US, without any proper sources to back it up? The market would implode all based on a rumour. This is why its VERY important to not follow false channels, or people looking to hype coins, its causing the market to expand in a direction that it shouldnt be going, which is the hype, pump, dump and the market is burning scenarios. This has a lasting effect on the human mind, and we'll pay for it eventually.
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Good point. That is the kind of stuff I think regulators want to reign in.
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if peeps still believe corporate media and at the same time want to adopt blockchain technology and cryptos I can show them the door it's right there bye
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Why? i mean Fox and CNN are particularly bad and i would prefer to bang my head with a pot, but you can believe in the blockchain and FIAT at the same time. As complementary. blockchain is really good for internet transactions (the good ones, of course, the bitshares tokens are very interesting, and so is eos, but it doesnt have a stable price) .
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did I talk about FIAT ? I said corporate media you reply with how blockchain will support FIAT transactions ?
sorry late reply I didn't see your comment 'til now
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I don’t disagree with a lot of your complaints. But if you aren’t looking to sell some btc right now I’d be happy to buy
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You think South Korea, China and some buffoon from the ECB coming out today right before expiration and crapping on crypto is just a coincidence?
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I was going to comment on this post, only to discover that you've already taken the words out of my mouth.
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Yours is very sensible advice!
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I believe if the Lightning Network gets implemented, BTC transactions will have really low fees. This could drive the price up and stop FUD and I think it's on its way but without date yet...I think we have to see the big picture here, years from now to understand the full impact of crypto. Probably in some years we will see this red moments as nothing...
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What is holding I think back? Why not lightning now?
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still in development, but in ts way soon!
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BTC already being too centralized as is, the Lightning Network will finalize that centralization and it'll be the end of a decentralized coin. Could just start using XRP instead. It'll be the same.
Rather than patching up an old, slow, expensive coin. Let's keep the good memories as it was the first cryptocurrency and move on to the better one's. :)
(Notice I didn't suggest which one that should be?)
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BTC will change, just wait for updates.
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But the question is will it change before other coins take up a larger slice of the pie? And if they do updates will the users return?
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There are certainly far better performing options that have been invented. This is also opportunity for some of those.
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Your first sentence is the problem you claim media is responsible for. YOU are the one saying bitcoin will kill the market.. Think before you write. People read your first and last sentence and move on. So what most take away from your post is: "Bitcoin is dying and killing the market. We'll pay for it eventually"
Good job, you've become the problem.
On another note I do believe BTC needs to die so other, better coins, can take over. Slowly we are seeing more and more ETH/XXX pairs in exchanges. This opens a way for people to buy something else than BTC to exchange into different coins. I'm not saying Eth will be the final coin to take over BTC, but it shows the move towards better and faster options.
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Wow that's a great pattern recognition. Buy low sell high. The real question is when do you think we'll bottom out? People need to realize that with decentralized systems, the more of these "scares by centralized players," the stronger crypto will become. If big governments want to stop crypto, they need to make the crypto champions compete against each other or just make their own version and join the party. Have you read The Starfish and the Spider?
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I can't say for sure, but I was willing to stick my neck out and buy some bitcoin today for the first time in a while, if that tells you anything. ;)
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I bought some more today as well! Best of luck. I am confident we're going to make some money :D :D
upvoted n followed you. hope you can do the same
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Smart man. I just wish I had some extra fiat lying in wait, but alas things are still pending in the slow ACH transfer game...I need to start using wires more often :P
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If you use coinbase they have a USD wallet you can keep dollars in.
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that would make me think we are going up from here
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We will definitely see a boom in February. Many investors are from Asia, and people cash out to celebrate Chinese New Year. Another point is, bank employees and such get their bonuses on the month of January, so where does this bonuses go for a good investment? Yes, definitely crypto :)
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What a nice coincidence for the bankers that the crypto market has a major crash just as they are about to get their fat fiat cash bonuses!!! :-)
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exactly! It's a mystery innit?
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Lets hope we go on a massive bull run. If we get through all of this fear we will be stronger than ever!
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BTC futures expire Jan 18th that's the reason for the market sell off, there's a massive short position by banks and institutions and they will be in the money.
JPM and GS were buying BTC last year only to leverage on exchanges and short BTC, they don't want your cryptos, they don't give a flying fuck about any of these, they just want your money and a lot of traders have done just that.
Crypto heads (including me) will get a taste of what the pm stackers have been dealing with for decades, market manipulation by big banks.
Learn how to trade the market on a monthly cycle.
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well information
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Yes this year will be epic especially for alts with good tech and small MC as LUXCORE . ROCKET SOOON
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Nice post...
Thank for sharing...
Please upvote my post...
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Only time will tell. Eventually, high transaction fees and slow processing times will spell the end of btc though. Those who have influence with bitcoin need to get this figured out. Your point is well-taken, though. This looks like the same trend.
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Time to get some coins now as they are quite cheap and HODL until they go up.
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Although you do point out a pattern of a dip in January you always have to keep in mind that past performance does not always guarantee future results. :) Optimism is always a good thing though.
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Very interesting my friend!
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I really hope Bitcoin will rise again. Cause one of my friend bought bitcoin with my advise. So if prices continue to drop he absolutely will be upset.
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Good stuff but it'll still further down my friends
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@tatchcapital/tatch-trading-analysis-btc-so-btc-dipped-as-expected-and-it-ain-t-over-yet
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https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@uzay/how-can-positions-be-taken-for-bitcoin-in-2018
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The options exchanges weren't available until this January and the fees and fulfillment issues have gotten worse. Not sure if its apples to apples... but the resurgence power of BTC has always been there regardless of the cause of a downturn.
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Yes. There is no guarantee it holds up again, but there is some seasonality to bitcoin trading, at least there has been in the past.
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Yes I do this on a daily basis too, you can mine each of the coins too but I’m not sure it’s profitable. If prices significantly increase this year though it maybe worth doing! Especially focusing on litecoin and dash really.
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yeah i have also noticed it , it will remain low for next 3 month approx and then it will start to grow up and up.
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Good work at the post
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The Chinese New Year apparently has a mass effect as people cash out into fiat for travel and celebrations, this is Asia’s Christmas ! I love seeing the sea of red @jrcornel it just screams buying opportunities galore!! Bring on 2018 and it’s momentum. Upvoted for sure ! Too many naysayers at the moment causing fud and panic selling
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Heres hoping... although the previous years, Bitcoin dominance was a lot higher than it is now. Wonder if that will make any sort of impact.
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Buy the DIP!
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@jrcornel I really believe in our cryptocommunity and hope that this is just a small correction that will really help us make the flaus/cons in our cryptocoins remove...... I hope our coins market cap again goes sky_high!!
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Best work this post
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very clear post, thank you for information
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How about steem
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you've got a point mate well done charts talk sometime hey ;-)
the whales might change their patterns this years if you've busted them though.
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Hodl hard my friends !
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You have a point here
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Now the question is why the heck the long timers were not warning the noobs about this?
or
They did but their voices were drowned out in the crowd?
I mean personally, I have only started hearing this after we were well into the dip.
As a less than a year Crypto investor I got burned really bad. None of the channels on you tube or twitter accounts said a single thing... other than put salt into the wound way they started basically saying "oh yeah this happens ever year, dont panic, and too bad you lost 1/3 of your money lol..."
Somebody warning people like me about this around ~Jan 8-10 would have been my personal hero...
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Well I don't think anyone could have known this was going to happen for sure. However, I did hear multiple people say that January was traditionally a bad time to be a crypto owner in the past, and I did hear that on multiple occasions. Even then, I don't think those people were thinking we were about to see a 60% drop...
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Also, see the comment a few comments down by @lukebrn where he mentions people talking about this possibly happening last December.
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I see. Well I must have missed all the warnings. Yeah this was a particular harsh dip perhaps combined with News media bashing cryptocurrencies...
Anyway I had other reasons for being extra grumpy: January 16 was my birthday :.(
Btw are there other yearly periods like this? Might be worth doing a post about that.
ex:December pre-Christmas/New Year decline, After new year; Bullish, 24 days before Asian New Year Dip, post New Asian New Year bullish... etc.
Thank you for the replies!
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I hope that this a short term bottom and that BTC will surpass all expectations!
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Saving that picture for future teaching opportunities. Always enjoy your articles and perspective @jrcornel!
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Bitcoin better reach 1,000,000 by 2020 or else jmac is in a lot of trouble....
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You got your inspiration from here and instead of upvoting and resteem you palgarized it with a little spin https://steemit.com/cryoto/@tipu/crypto-panic-sell-or-just-a-pattern
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You seem very certain this post was plagarized but I am not. He provided a footnote reference to the source of the image and it was from a twitter user. However the post you provided did not provide a source. How are you so certain?
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It’s nothing new. It basically goes through cycles. I’m not worried about the drop in any coin. I’m excited for it since most were overpriced recently. HODL strategy is real
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Agreed I am a buyer at these prices.
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AN EXCLUSIVE HAPPINESS DELIVERY - #01
I've elected to deliver a special POSITIVE VIBE to everyone that I follow! Remember you determine your own HAPPINESS. Have a HAPPY DAY!
Gif by Tenor
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If that's the case, will it dip more before the Chinese New Year?
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Very good to know. I’m not sure what’s to do right now except sit on my hands as I don’t have any fiat to invest. Hopefully some of my coins jump before others so I can move them around and end January with a blast
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very impression your post, I really like, I want to like you what is its secret?
if you wish please visit my blog, i need your support .thank you https://steemit.com/@muliadi
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Great Article. Thanks. Hope you dont mind if I share these helpful articles
3 Cryptocurrency That Would Survive After a Possible Crash
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@dubaiyu/3-cryptocurrency-that-would-survive-after-a-possible-crash
Did they block you? Here are 7 bitcoin debit card services and their rates
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@dubaiyu/did-they-block-you-here-are-7-bitcoin-debit-card-services-and-their-rates
Hashflare to Include top 20 coins in 2.0?
https://steemit.com/hashflare/@dubaiyu/hashflare-to-include-top-20-coins-in-2-0
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good to see a concret analyse thanks for share!
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Everything is a predictable pattern until it's NOT.
Tread with caution and invest within your circle of competence
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Well said.
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Thanks @jrcornel
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Seems like i get it!
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@defremont/head-and-shoulders-pattern-on-bitcoin-9k-usd-expected
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At 5 AM Pakistan Time BTC downtrend starts Then after 11 AM starts recovering and then next day more down and cycle continued in same way from last few days.
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yes
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Btc futures alos expires today. Trend will reverse soon.
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After seen it i feel some easy and can take free breath!!!
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In november 2017 I said Bitcoin would be at around $12k on February 2018 just from extrapolating the trend of the previous 400 days.
Sadly I'm not sure I have written it on the blockchain but if I did it would be as a comment on your blog. I might be looking for it.
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Haha either way, if you did, nice call! I picked up some bitcoin today just under $11k. Will buy more if it drops lower.
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I can't but I seriously think it's a good buy at today's price.
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I saw a similar post in December from a guy who predicted this low (I can't remember where I saw it, but it wasn't Steemit) and I found it very interesting that BTC follows this eyarly pattern and could be doing so again.
While I am unsure as to if this is the all time low for 2018, I am hopeful that it is. I do think that many altcoins will ultimately fall this year, as they will not be able to compete with the mammoth of innovation that is flooding the industry right now. Therefore, I can see projects that actually have a product (Steemit!) doing really well, but projects with no working or late delivered product failing.
I have just started a cryptocurrency passive income series on my blog, where I aim to educate the community about how to become slightly more financially free. These types of coins provide a utility that others don't so I can also see them doing well.
Thanks for the great post!
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