Thanks for the comments. I tend to expect that bitcoins will eventually bounce back as well... although there is no basis to state it would bounce back hard, whatever hard means numerically. Maybe it means within weeks? You said BTC is "known" to bounce hard but if you went through its history you would see that it's also known to not bounce back hard, as it did in 2014, when it took over years to return to its prior high levels. Mathematically, it was shown in the referenced paper that the departure from its life long model currently is only second to the departure in 2014, so there's going by facts and data and going by feelings.

I'm not sure what not being a cash replacement implies here. Does it mean that if its user growth rate continues to decline its value can continue to rise opposite to that data? I followed your link and I saw a paragraph or so of analysis based on price data; which price is an expressed output data rather than inputs and so is unable to discern much farther than the pattern it is currently expressing. Price data and charts based solely on price, include Elliot wave methods, are not sufficient for true analysis that will ever be accurate beyond very short time frames.