The vast majority are still bearish on BTC, mainly due to structures on the lower timeframes indicating further downside. Taking a step back and analysing the 4h chart, it provides a different outlook.
Straight away we can see many similarities in the way price has been moving since March 2018. Trading within clearly defined descending and ascending channels, with price reacting nicely at the upper and lower limits.
Once the low was established at the beginning of April (2018-04-01) price experienced a bounce to $7,500 followed by a decline and this is where the rally began. Price moved from the lows of $6,500 to $7,200 to retest resistance, followed by a short-term pullback and an aggressive breakout.
This extent of this move was an approximate 54% increase, this marked the first major correction of the move from $11,700 to $6,500. It measured at the 0.618 retracement which aligned with the ascending channel resistance, marking a key turning point in the market.
Now looking at more recent price structure, we've broken out of the descending channel and currently trading at $6,540... We have yet to experience a larger correction of the move from $10,000 to $5,750.
Right now my focus is on the high at $6,850, I'm looking for price to break and close above this level... An excellent confirmation of the larger correction at play.
It's worth mentioning, when analysing BTC on higher timeframes I use a logarithmic scale, I find it far more reliable. This measures prices in the proportional amount of percentage increase or decrease, providing us a fair representation of where bitcoin was, is and could be.
Click here to view my original post on TradingView.
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