The Wild Insane Roller Coaster of Bit Coin Price

                                                                                                                                                             Source: Coindesk.com

   A lot has happened since 2009.  A digital currency reached a value of 20,000.00 per coin!

The Real Value of Bit Coin

   To make a fair assessment of bit coin price I have placed red lines indicating more reasonable gains in accordance with the technology and real use case.  The near vertical climb represents a class of speculators that didn't fully appreciate the technology, or even remotely care about it.  While the surge in price did wonders for the recognition of bit coin, it's price got ahead of it's real progress.

   There Are No Free Lunches

   I'm reminded of gold's climb in price to near 2,000.00.  The price was manipulated by big money investors and an increased interest after the 2008 economic crisis.  But, it got way ahead of itself in relation to the U.S. dollars rate of inflation and the steady interest in gold that the public has held for a long time.  The price eventually settled to about 1200.00.  What happened with bit coin is exactly what any asset does when it gets ahead of it's real value.  It takes a big correction in price.

   Where Are We Now with Bit Coin?

   I think we have found a more reasonable price at 6,000.00 per bit coin reflecting an increased recognition by the public at bit coin's actual goal of becoming a low cost, secure, fast way of sending money anywhere in the world.  We have to consider how many vendors accept bit coin, how many bit coin atms are out there, how easy is it to use bit coin, and what is the status of regulation.  Notice the recent spike in price on the graphic marked by a green circle.  I believe the potential approval of an etf by the SEC drove the price up.  A successful approval would represent progress in regulation, and thus would warrant an increase in value.  My personal opinion is that the ETF will eventually pass and this makes bit coin an attractive investment now and a great long term investment.

   Your thoughts and comments are always appreciated!