"Basing on (...) charts i bet for a drop below 10k$ in next few days before hitting 12000$ takes place."
"Basing on news i bet for strong, up-trend move in next two-three months but for now we should take a rest for a while."
Yesterday price of Bitcoin was shyly going up to 10000$. I was quite certain it would be a fast breakout of this resistance - why was that so?
Of course there were only few possibilities of playing this however one can easily see how full prices of resistance (like 5000, 7500, 10000$ etc.) works on Bitcoin. Below i put some examples (all of them thanks to tradingview.com):
In time of september-october 2017, 5000$ was tested and denied however after ~40 days we smoothly overcome this resistance. After leaving 5000$ behind we tried 6k and even exceeded this barrier for a while but then felt to ~5500$, stopped at 6k, felt again and eventually making raid up to 7500$...
History repeated itself with 7500$ like it was at 6000$ - little push over resistance, bears take down price below, another try and another denial and finally bulls defeating bears. 10000$ on the other hand was unique comparing to lower resistances - look at this shot; we almost hit 11k but instead of crossing this price we had a little dropdown of price below resistance. After all bulls won battle again and we started raid up to 20000$...
And now a little comment of these charts: price should not have raised over 11-12k$ - for me raid to 20000$ was just a coincidence. But after hitting 10k everyone started to talk about Bitcoin; people on the streets, visitors of toilets, children in the schools or bankers in their banks. Probably most of you remember these days when day after day Bitcoin's price was 1000$ higher than yesterday's price. On some point it was just a madness, the essence of bubble and eventually in January 2018 crashed like a bubble.
And now, we have 2019 AD - what happened to resistance prices?
5000$ was reached with a big 1000$ candle, little hesitation and going up. 6000$ was a history and we went for 7500$...
which looks similar as breaking resistance of 5000$ in 2019 and all of 2017 with similar scheme; push over resistance, drop below resistance, another try of bulls, defending twice or three times resistance which makes it a very strong support and price continues to rise. And now we're having successful attack of 10k$ with another fast, big move like it was in 2017. For now, we're trying to hit 11k$.
As you can see, VERY similar situation we had in 2017 when there was a fight for 10000$. Of course it doesn't mean now price now will drop below 10k$ however pattern with price's dropdown below support after hitting full price repeats itself quite often. More and more people trade on leverage and that's perfect moment to crash most of them.
Basing on these charts i bet for a drop below 10k$ in next few days before hitting 12000$ takes place.
We have a lot of new positive information of: Facebook coin, upcoming Bakkt, Ethereum 2.0 and negative: baning US traders on binance or upcoming boring period of holidays. I would say these positive ones are stronger but they will be more significant after few months. On the other hand July is almost there which starts boring third quarter of the year and time is running out for US citizens on binance.
In my opinion hype of these positive news should fall soon and prepare ground for next raid but for now we should have a little rest.
Basing on news i bet for strong, up-trend move in next two-three months but for now we should take a rest for a while.