This is a quick read, like so many more that lead me to believe that more than just a few influential voices say things to get uneducated investers to make decisions that influence the market in the way that they want it to go for their own personal gains.
"I think it could go as low as $8000, so I'm halting my plans to start a fund."
Okay, trader Joe has $10k in BTC and the price is at $13k per BTC, he's likely to sell, possibly taking a loss. If enough trader Joe's make this move, the price is going to fall. Price falls, Novogratz rekindles his plans to start hedge fund, buys $5 million USD in BTC at $8.5k, investor Joe sees an article 2 days later and buys back in at $11k to try and chase that $40k speculation for next year. BTC runs up to $28k and Novogratz cashes out $1 million USD and shorts BTC. trader Joes wake up the next morning to see BTC is back down to $18, so pulls out and meanwhile Novogratz cashes in on his futures contract.
This is how the influential are taking advantage of uninformed trader Joe's trying to cash in on these insane fluctuations. Meanwhile, Novogratz buddy down the street has an ASIC farm powered by windmills and all of these emotional trades are causing network congestion and $50+ transaction fees. This is my speculation on the situation because real news drives prices in the markets I've traded in before and there's rarely any real news to back all the speculation...It's just people creating an intoxicating buzz in hopes of drawing more people in.
Another thing that interesting about crypto is that you really have no idea what these influential investors are holding or planning on doing. Taking their advice is like sitting at a poker table and asking the person you're in the hand with for betting advice. There are events that have happened that have effected prices, but most of the volatility comes from Novogratz predicting $40k next year for BTC last week, and then 2 hours ago, cancelling his plans because the opportunity to get in at $8k could happen in the near future??? If a week ago, a person felt that an asset would be worth $40k next year, wouldn't it make more sense to buy in at $8k than $16k?
Truth be told, nobody knows what's going to happen and governments could step in at any time and shut it down for their citizens. It could happen anywhere... especially if a government was implimenting their own blockchain, they wouldn't want people to have the option to do regular day to day business with another currency. I mean, we can trade the USD for YEN, but that doesn't mean we can spend that YEN at Wal-Mart tonight. And if a government says "that's it for BTC, you have a week to trade it in for B-USD along with any cash or bank account balances, using a competing currency to buy and sell goods carries a maximum sentence of 5 years in jail and a $100k fine" that's the end game, folks. All of the value in the potential of the technology has gone to zero. Now, I don't think this would happen in the United States any time soon, but there are countries that are ruled by absolute authority governments in Asia that are initiating legislation against cryptocurrencies and announcing plans to issue their own currency. Crypto transactions in Asia outnumber American transactions 4 to 1... So China or Japan shutting down BTC because it's exposing vulnerbilities in their currencies could have devestating effects in America... I'm just saying, the stakes continue to go up and western investors are just pulling predictions out of thin air while ignoring what is happening on the other side of the globe while they sleep.