In your early remarks you mention that the fall in a January has been slower than the rise that lead to it, as shown on your chart. That should be ringing a bell in your head. The fall relates to a much longer rise that started over a year ago and in those terms,
- the fall has been swift
- it’s not over.
Even on your chart the white moving average, that is turning down, is not suddenly going to flip up again and the blue one has been below support for months, is way up in the air as strong resistance. Sentiment has changed. People have had their fingers burnt. The institutions are attacking cryptos and so its going to be a while before the true value of crypto currencies can fight off the fear running through them now.
Take a look at a weekly chart of 2017/18 to see how this new year fall really looks. I still think 4,000 is Bitcoin’s support level and it may even overshoot and then range trade around there for weeks.
One other thing, commentators always fit news events around market moves both up and down. Sentiment trumps news every time. An event such as an interest rate rise by a central bank can lead to a surge up in
markets or FX pairs, just as much as a fall.
I have been searching for this video that I watched about a year ago. It has another video within it showing all Bitcoin’s previous bubbles. The price is higher, but the curves look the same.